The African Cup of Nations kicks off on Saturday with co-hosts Equatorial Guinea headlining the tournament’s opening match against Libya.
Cue the talk of witch craft, curses and the odd animal sacrifice. The crown jewel of African football, this being the 28th edition, will run from Jan. 21-Feb. 12.
Surprisingly it will not feature the defending champions from Egypt. The Pharaohs finished dead last in their qualifying group. Winners of the last three tournaments, Egypt is not the only big name to miss out — Cameroon and Nigeria are also absent.
Now it is time to focus on the participants that have made it through the long journey to compete for their continents biggest prize.
EQUATORIAL GUNIEA (CO-HOST)
Best Result: Debut in ACN
Ranking: FIFA #151, CAF #41
Not much is expected from the lowest-ranked team. Brazilian Gilson Paulo recently took over as manager, signing a two-month contract and came onboard simply to guide the team through the tournament. The majority of the roster plays their club football in the Spanish lower-tier, and will see this as a great learning experience.
Player to Watch: Rodolfo Bodipo (Deportivo La Coruna)
Prediction: 4th in Group A
ZAMBIA
Best Result: Runners-up – 1974, 1994
Previous Result (2010 Angola): Quarter-finals
Look for Zambia to be put to the test in Group A. Despite having a strong defensive record in qualifying (two goals conceded in six matches), things will not be as easy against tougher competition. Zambia finished first in qualifying ahead of Libya, and the rivalry will continue after being drawn together once more, meeting on Jan. 25. Manager Herve Renard took Zambia all the way to the quarter-finals in 2010, their first appearance in fourteen years. He will have the same goal in mind in this edition.
Player to Watch: Emmanuel Mayuka (Young Boys)
Prediction: 3rd in Group A
LIBYA
Best Result: Runners-up – 1982
Previous Result (2010 Angola): Did Not Qualify
With all the turmoil the people of Libya have had to endure this past year, it is fair to say that qualification for the ACN was not a top priority. The Mediterranean Knights will hope to do their country proud and overachieve in a tough group. They do, however, come in with the added confidence of having the upper-hand against group opponents Zambia, meeting twice in qualifying and securing four points. Strength is on defence, posting five clean sheets in qualifying, due in large part to club captain Samir Aboud. The veteran goalkeeper will hope to lead by example and punch Libya’s ticket into the next round.
Player to Watch: Ahmed Saad (Al-Ittihad Tripoli)
Prediction: 2nd in group A
SENEGAL
Best Result: Runners-up – 2002
Previous Result (2010 Angola): Did not qualify
The Lions of Teranga were devastated over their failure to qualify two years ago, made worse by the fact it was a single point that kept them from competing in Angola. Qualification for this year’s tournament was completely different. Senegal topped their group with five wins and averaged almost three goals per game, steamrolling through the competition. Close to being a complete team, confidence is at an all-time high. Cameroon was one of their casualties, beaten convincingly by the Lions with two clean sheets and four points earned. Manager Amara Traore will try and replicate the success of the Senegalese 2002 World Cup squad that he was a part of as a player, defying the odds once more. The team is blessed with an array of scoring prowess: Moussa Sow of Lille, Mamadou Niang, Newcastle’s Demba Ba and Papiss Demba Cisse, who was recently purchased by the Magpies. Take your pick as anyone of them could potentially win the golden boot. Depth and experience will see Senegal into the next round.
Player to Watch: Demba Ba (Newcastle United)
Prediction: 1st in Group A
SUDAN
Best Result: Champions – 1970
Previous Result (2010 Angola): Did Not Qualify
The only participant from East Africa, Sudan did well to finish runners-up to Ghana in qualifying. Their group was relatively weak, with Swaziland and Congo rounding out the competition. The Falcons of Jediane only dropped points to the Black Stars, and swept through the weaker opposition. The same will not be the case in the finals after being drawn into arguably the toughest group of the tournament. Sudan does not possess the quality to mount a serious challenge, as each player is based out of their domestic league. Expectations should be realistically low.
Player to Watch: Haitham Mustafa (Al-Hilal)
Prediction: 4th in Group B
BURKINA FASO
Best Result: Fourth – 1998
Previous Result (2010 Angola): Group Stage
Les Etalons had an easy qualifying campaign. When Mauritius withdrew from the ACN, the group was down to only three teams. With only Gambia and Namibia left, Burkina Faso ran away easy winners. Portuguese manager Paulo Duarte has been with the national program since 2009, pulling double duty while leading Ligue 1 side Le Mans at the same time. Now Duarte is fully focused on the national team and will look to force their way into the knockout rounds for the first time in fourteen years. Keep a close eye on 16-year-old midfielder Bertrand Traore, a shock call-up from Chelsea’s youth academy. Unlike qualifying, their opponents are of a higher standard and will not roll over. The opener against Angola will make or break them.
Player to Watch: Alain Traore (Auxerre)
Prediction: 3rd in Group B
ANGOLA
Best Result: Quarter-finals – 2008, 2010
Previous Result (2010 Angola): Quarter-finals
Angola has overachieved in recent time. Reaching the quarter-finals in back-to back appearances was a major accomplishment for the southern African country. The terrorist attack on the Togolese team bus rightfully overshadowed their overachievement in 2010 on home soil. Former Angolan footballer Lito Vidigal took charge last year, winning three of the team’s last four pivotal qualifying matches to win the group. A big home victory in Luanda over favourites Uganda sealed their ticket last September. The match against Burkina Faso will be the decider, with Ivory Coast the bookmakers’ choice to finish first. Angola will need to step up their goal production for any chance of making it past the group stage. Former Manchester United striker Manucho and FC Porto’s Djalma will be counted on heavily to produce up front.
Player to Watch: Djalma (FC Porto)
Prediction: 2nd in Group B
IVORY COAST
Best Result: Champions – 1992
Previous Result (2010 Angola): Quarter-finals
Les Elephants will be making their nineteenth appearance in the can, but they have a terrible history of underachievement. On paper, the roster is stacked and the most experienced, with their standard being at a higher level than most African nations. Former Ivorian international Francois Zahoui took charge in 2010, following the farcical appointment of Sven-Goran Eriksson for the World Cup campaign. The team finished qualifying with a perfect record, six wins in six, twelve points ahead of lowly Rwanda. Not that lightweights Burundi and Benin posed any sort of real threat either. The squad is filled with depth from top to bottom. Veteran Boubacar Barry in goal (56 caps), the trio of Kolo Toure, Cheick Tiene and Emmanuel Eboue are in command of the back line (over 200 caps combined). In the midfield the talent pool gets richer. Didier Zokora and his team-leading 97 caps partners the in-form Cheick Tiote and the powerful gazelle-like Yaya Toure are arguably the best in the tournament. It does not end there, as the dangerous combination of Salomon Kalou, Gervinho and Didier Drogba is what will cause opponents nightmares. Anything but a first place would be a disappointment for the number one ranked team in Africa. But with some of the continent’s heavyweights not in attendance, Ivory Coast is in the driver’s seat to lift the cup and end their 20-year drought.
Player to Watch: Didier Drogba (Chelsea)
Prediction: 1st in Group B
NIGER
Best Result: Debut in ACN
Ranking: FIFA #98, CAF #22
Niger is the third lowest seed in the tournament. Qualification was never expected considering the calibre of competition they came up against — South Africa and defending champions Egypt were standing in their path. Miraculously Niger found themselves in a three-way tie for top spot, achieving the unimaginable and advancing via the head-to-head rule. Their record was average, undefeated at home and winless away from the Stade General Seyni Kountche in Niamey, with six goals scored and eight conceded. Their success was in large part due to the underachievement of others. Most players are from the domestic league and are short of experience at this level. If they somehow manage to earn a point it would be considered successful.
Player to Watch: Ouwo Moussa Maazou (Zulte Waregem)
Prediction: 4th in Group C
GABON (CO-HOST)
Best Result: Quarter-finals – 1996
Previous Result (Angola 2010): Group Stage
Manager German Gernot Rohr, who most notably took Bordeaux to the 1996 UEFA Cup final, will have a tough job on his hands trying to manoeuvre this side to a respectable finish on home soil. Gabon’s roster consists mostly of Ligue 1 players, giving them minimal experience at best but lacking any real quality to challenge. This will be the Panthers’ fifth appearance in the ACN, with their most memorable result coming two years ago in Angola, stunning Cameroon 1-0 in the group stage. The only other time they would have made anyone’s football radar would have been during a friendly match at the tail end of last year against Brazil which marked the grand opening of the new Stade d’Angondje in Libreville. Playing in front of home support might will them to victory on the opening day against Niger, but Morocco and Tunisia will be difficult to overcome.
Player to Watch: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Saint Etienne)
Prediction: 3rd in Group C
TUNISIA
Best Result: Champions – 2004
Previous Result (2010 Angola): Group Stage
Tunisian Sami Trabelsi is in charge full-time after a brief spell in 2010 as caretaker manager. His appointment turned out to be a good decision after guiding the team to seven points in their final three matches of qualifying to edge out Malawi for a place in the tournament. Nicknamed “The Eagles of Carthage,” nothing will ever be sweeter than being crowned champions on home soil eight years ago, but Tunisia have gone in the wrong direction since then. In 2010 the Eagles crashed out with three straight draws and were a huge disappointment. Issam Jemaa will carry the bulk of the responsibility offensively (26 goals in 57 matches), and will be looked upon to score the goals needed to make it out of the group. Kicking off against Morocco will provide a great test on Jan. 23. Finding the killer instinct that has been missing for quite some time will be top priority, but a place in the next round looks certain.
Player to Watch: Issam Jemaa (Auxerre)
Predictions: 2nd in group C
MOROCCO
Best Result: Champions – 1976
Previous Result (2010 Angola): Did Not Qualify
Morocco is considered to be historically one of the strongest teams on the continent, yet in 2010 they underachieved miserably by finishing in last spot and failing to make it out of qualifying. This time around Morocco easily topped a weaker group, knocking out Algeria in the process. They are defensively sound, only conceding two goals in all of qualifying, but their lack of scoring is a cause for concern — eight goals scored against considerably weaker opposition in the qualifiers, and half of them came from one match versus Algeria. Marouane Chamakh will need to step up his game and start finding the net. The striker is going through a horrible spell at Arsenal and needs to find some of the form he had when playing for Bordeaux. Highly decorated manager and former player Eric Gerets will be under immense pressure for a strong showing, and will need his other Premier League player, QPR midfielder Adel Taarabt, to raise his level if they want to match their ambitions.
Player to Watch: Younes Belhanda (Montpellier)
Prediction: 1st in Group C
GUINEA
Best Result: Runners-Up – 1976
Previous Result (2010 Angola): Did Not Qualify
The best period in Guinean football came during 2004-2008, when the national team made the quarter-finals three times consecutively. This will be Michel Dussuyer’s second stint as manager. The Frenchman has seen results improve the second time around, finishing first in a qualifying group that included powerhouse Nigeria. Remarkably Guinea took four points from six versus the Super Eagles. Defence is the name of the game, conceding five goals en route to qualification. Guinea has also shown a keen eye for goal, averaging over two goals a game. Unfortunately they are completely overmatched and are unlikely to make it out of this group.
Player to Watch: Ismael Bangoura (Al Nasr)
Prediction: 4th in Group D
BOTSWANA
Best Result: Debut in ACN
Ranking: FIFA #94, CAF #21
The Zebras were the shock group winners in qualifying. Botswana proved to be difficult to breach at the back but struggled severely in doing the same to their opponents. Goals have been difficult to come by, netting less than a goal a game (seven in eight matches). It was remarkable they somehow managed to edge out Tunisia for top spot with such poor numbers. Four of their five victories came by way of a 1-0 victory. The lack of fire power is the reason why the next round is a long shot. Former player Stanley Tshosane has overachieved as manager, considering the resources at his disposal. Only being able to choose players from the domestic league, experience in this type of environment is at a minimum. It was an accomplishment to make tournament but the team is in over their heads. Botswana will kick-off against Ghana on Jan. 24.
Player to Watch: Dipsy Selolwane (Supersport United)
Prediction: 3rd in Group D
MALI
Best Result: Runners-up – 1972
Previous Result (2010 Angola): Group Stage
The Eagles’ performance in Angola two years ago was disappointing, although one game was definitely the most memorable. With fifteen minutes remaining and down by four to the hosts, Mali made a miraculous comeback and escaped with a draw after scoring four straight. Sadly that is where the positives ended. Alain Giresse took over following the poor performance in 2010. The manager is highly decorated as a player and has won French Footballer of the Year on three separate occasions. The roster is filled with players from Ligue 1, making them one of the stronger sides in the competition. Everything runs through captain Seydou Keita, the Barcelona midfielder who leads by example and is extremely versatile. It is really important for Mali’s progression that he has a great performance. With Ghana being favourites to win the group, the match against Botswana off the top will be most important.
Player to Watch: Cheick Diabate (loaned to AS Nancy via Bordeux)
Prediction: 2nd in Group D
GHANA
Best Result: Four-time Champions – 1963, 1965, 1978, 1982
Previous Result (2010 Angola): Runners-up
The Black Stars come into the tournament looking to go one better than last time in Angola, and lift the cup after losing in the final to Egypt. Ghana is extremely difficult to break down, largely due to a strong core group who are highly skilled and extremely motivated. The only negative is the absence of Michael Essien, who only recently came back from a long term knee injury. Ghana got through qualifying with an undefeated record, while only conceding one goal. With the team practically impenetrable, veteran vice captains John Paintsil and John Mensah provide the leadership and experience at the back that instills confidence within the squad. Sulley Muntari and Andre Ayew are only a couple of stand-outs in a rugged midfield that rarely gives up any open space. Serbian manager Goran Stevanovic has stated that he will quit if team does not make the finals, so a good start is crucial. For goals, look no further than Asamoah Gyan, despite a recent hamstring injury the striker will be available. It would be hard to leave him out considering he averages close to a goal every other game. Prince Tagoe and Jordan Ayew, younger brother of Andre, will take on the rest of the responsibility offensively for the Black Stars. It is hard to find another team with a balanced blend of youth and experience. Lifting the cup on Feb. 12th in Libreville is the goal.
Player to Watch: Andre Ayew (Marseille)
Prediction: 1st in Group D
KNOCKOUT ROUND PREDICTIONS:
Quarter-finals: Senegal over Angola, Ghana over Tunisia, Morocco over Mali, Ivory Coast over Libya
Semifinals: Ghana over Senegal, Ivory Coast over Morocco
Third Place: Senegal over Morocco
Final: Ivory Coast over Ghana
Golden Boot: Demba Ba (Senegal)
Golden Glove: Adam Kwarasey (Ghana)
Thomas Michalakos is a former associate producer with Sportsnet’s Soccer Central and writes the weekly blog Soccerholic365. Follow Thomas on Twitter.