It has been an eventful year for Neymar, going from World Cup heartbreak on home soil in Brazil to a Champions League final in Berlin.
The media coverage in the lead up to the 2014 FIFA World Cup made it seem almost inevitable that Neymar would lead Brazil to its sixth title. Of course what happened next was one of the most infamous collapses in the history of sports.
Due to his injury in the quarterfinal, Neymar avoided much of the blame and scrutiny that was afforded to many of his Brazilian teammates. However, even though Neymar didn’t play in the 7-1 semifinal loss to Germany people started to look back on his performances with a more critical eye. Critics focused particularly on what they perceived to be a lukewarm first season at Barcelona. Whether or not Brazilian and Catalonian partisans were willing to admit it at the time these critics had a point.
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For a player who was being talked about as one of the best in the world, Neymar’s goal scoring record was a far cry from the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez. During the 2013-14 season—his first with Barcelona—Neymar was scoring at a rate of 0.45 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes. This represented a huge drop-off from Neymar’s final season in Brazil with Santos when he scored 0.65 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes.
A counter-argument is that the quality of competition was just that much stronger in Europe than it was in Brazil. The inverse argument was that there wasn’t a club in the world where Neymar could get better service than at Barcelona. Regardless of which was the more compelling argument the question marks were certainly there following Neymar’s first year in Spain.
Coming into the 2014-15 campaign with the World Cup behind him there was less media attention centred on the Brazilian. That quickly changed as Neymar finally put together the season people had been waiting for since his name first started to pop up more than five years ago.
This season with Barcelona, Neymar is averaging 0.83 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes, scoring at nearly double the rate than he was the previous season.
This makes him one of only four players in Europe this season who has made over 20 appearances and averaged more than 0.5 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes. The other three are Messi, Ronaldo and Arjen Robben. Not bad company to find yourself in.
As Messi and Ronaldo have been busy pushing each other to the limits over the past few years, the question looming in the background has often been, who’s next? It seems like every other week a player is promised to be the next Messi or Ronaldo, but with Neymar we finally appear to have an answer.
This season didn’t come out of nowhere. Neymar’s goal scoring numbers have been consistently improving since he became a regular starter at Santos in 2010, with the only blip being his first season at Barcelona.
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There are plenty of legitimate reasons why a player might take a year to adjust to a new club in a new league on a new continent. There’s a cultural shock, language barriers, a different playing style and even simple homesickness given that Neymar had previously only ever played in the same province that he grew up in (Sao Paulo).
There have also been a few on the field changes at Barcelona from 2013-14 to 2014-15 that may have been a factor. The moves Barcelona made bringing in Ivan Rakitic and Suarez to replace Cesc Fabregas and Alexis Sanchez respectively can be seen as significant upgrades on already world-class players.
With Rakitic in midfield, Barcelona has seen their average possession increase from 63 to 70 percent per game. The bigger change though has surely been up front with the introduction of Suarez. The exploits of the attacking trio of Neymar, Suarez and Messi have been well documented. The three just seem to click with an almost telepathic understanding.
In terms of Neymar’s progression, playing alongside Suarez has significantly increased the number of chances he’s received. This season Suarez has played an average of 2.5 key passes (passes that lead to a shot) per 90 minutes as opposed to Alexis Sanchez, who averaged only 1.4 key passes per 90 minutes.
Another important thing to note is that Neymar is playing more and more every season. If he starts the Champions League final on Saturday he will surpass 4,000 minutes played this season, which translates to about 45 full 90-minute games. For a 23 year-old coming off a World Cup and a potentially damaging injury that is a pretty incredible number.
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Neymar’s journey over the past season from World Cup disaster to being considered one of the best players in the game has been astounding. Just two years after leaving his boyhood club in Brazil, Neymar faces the biggest game of his career in the Champions League final against Juventus and an opportunity to truly cement himself alongside Messi and Ronaldo.
Opta data courtesy of whoscored.com
Sam Gregory is soccer analytics writer based in Montreal. Follow him on Twitter