There are two types of teams that have historically given the Golden State Warriors trouble during the Steve Kerr era. Teams that have LeBron James, and teams with a bunch of switchable, athletic, long defenders.
Boston, Golden State's opponent in the NBA Finals, is the latter. Marcus Smart has matched up well with Stephen Curry, and as a team, the Celtics are great at getting into passing lanes and mucking things up. There’s a reason Boston had the NBA’s best defensive rating (106.2) this season.
I think this series likely comes down to how consistently Boston can score on Golden State, which has the league’s second-best defensive rating (106.6). The Warriors were among the league’s most efficient offences this season, and their stars are elite shot-makers. The Celtics are a bit streakier, and Golden State are the public's team. That explains the oddsmakers’ stance on the series.
But that roster composition is enticing, the Celtics’ propensity for forcing turnovers is scary for Warriors fans, and the fact Boston switches almost half of screen actions portends well for making things hard for Curry. All of that makes for some very interesting betting opportunities.
Series picks record: 12-2
Overall record against the spread: 31-26-1
Boston Celtics (+130) vs Golden State Warriors (-170)
I felt a lot more comfortable about picking Boston to win this series before the Heat dragged the Eastern Conference Finals into the mud and beat the crap out of the Celtics for seven games. I’m sticking to my guns, though. I picked the Celtics to win the title in the first round. And there’s a reason Boston is the only team in the NBA with a winning record against Kerr's Dubs. I’ve got Boston in seven. But I’ll be picking Golden State to win Game 1.
Player props are where I’ve been making my money during the playoffs. So far, books have already produced a few numbers that I think are worth monitoring, as well as a handful of futures bets I like and a few players I’m staying away from. First, I’m staying away from Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kevon Looney and Robert Williams.
Looney and Williams are listed because I don’t feel confident enough in their minutes, Tatum and Brown because they’re both so streaky. I can see Golden State forcing the Jays into tough shots just as much as I can see the Celtics’ stars putting up huge numbers. In short, I don’t trust it.
Let’s talk about a matchup I feel I have a handle on. Let’s talk about Curry vs. Smart.
To Curry’s immense credit, and sometimes to his detriment, he is one of the most unselfish superstars in league history. That means he’s more than willing to find the open man when the Celtics send two bodies at him. Sometimes, I wish he’d just shoot more, but his willingness to constantly make the right play is what has made this team so good for so long. And for prop betting, it means a few things.
Right now, most books have Curry at over/under 5.5 assists in Game 1. I’m riding the OVER on Curry’s assists up to 6.5. And I like him to lead the series in assists (+275) as a futures bet. Smart’s going to be on his hip constantly, and Boston’s going to sell out to let anyone except Curry shoot.
We’ve been tracking Smart over/under 1.5 steals and blocks throughout the playoffs. He’s gone over 53 per cent of the time in these playoffs. I think he’ll do even better than that in this series. Curry is famously loose with the ball, and Smart’s going to get a handful of blocks over the course of seven games. Also keep an eye on Curry's turnover number. If books drop the over/under to 2.5, grab the over. Honestly I wouldn’t hate the over up to 3.5 turnovers.
All of that leads me to my favourite futures pick. Smart to win Finals MVP at +2200. If the Celtics are going to win, Smart will need to turn in an Andre-Iguodala-on-LeBron type defensive performance. He’s not going to shut Curry down, but he can make things hard. And if Tatum struggles on offence, the FMVP is right there for the taking.
I’m also tracking Jordan Poole’s offensive props. He’s at over/under 1.5 threes made and over/under 15.5 points in Game 1. If those numbers hold, I love the overs. Poole has topped that threes made number 56 per cent of the time.
Let’s keep riding Al Horford’s renaissance. He’s a great rebounder, and will have a serious size advantage over every Warrior besides Looney. His rebounding over/under is 9.5 for Game 1. That’s the upper limit of where I feel comfortable taking Horford’s OVER, but if it drops to 8.5 jump on it.
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
