It would be premature to write off Milos Raonic, or to say he can’t get back to being Canada’s best player.
Indeed, it could be that once again, a little internal competition will bring out the best in the big fella.
You might recall back in August, 2013, it was Vasek Pospisil who was pushing Raonic hard to see who could claim the title of Canada’s top tennis player. Raonic was No. 13 in the world and Pospisil was about to crack the top 40 when the pair met in the semifinals of the Rogers Cup in Montreal, the first time two Canadians had met in an ATP Masters semi.
Raonic won that day, and did so again a little less than a year later when they met in the finals of the ATP Washington event, the first time two Canadians had ever met in an ATP final. It was the first time Canada had two male players inside the top 30, and the challenge from his countryman seemed to spur on Raonic, who by mid-January last year had climbed all the way to No. 3 in the world.
Now, Denis Shapovalov has done what Pospisil couldn’t do, and that’s catch Raonic, and pass him. Shapovalov won twice in Rome this week before falling to the peerless clay master Rafael Nadal. Raonic, meanwhile, pulled out of Rome with knee troubles, and because he had made it to the semifinals of this event last year, he had points to defend and will fall from his current No. 22 perch.
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Shapovalov, meanwhile, had become the youngest player on tour to move into the top 30 in 13 years before Rome, and now will pass Raonic. That means for the first time since June, 2010 when Frank Dancevic was passed in the rankings by Raonic, the Maple Leaf Missile won’t be Canada’s top player.
That run of seven years and 11 months saw Raonic redefine success for Canadian players on tour, and included a Wimbledon final. He might not have won the big one, but he become the first Canadian to crack to the top 10 and, largely by virtue of his massive serve and tireless work ethic when it came to shoring up deficiencies in his game, he became one of the tour’s most consistent performers outside of the Big Four of Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.
Injuries have changed all that for Raonic. Two weeks ago in Madrid, he lost to Shapovalov, a symbolic passing of the torch.
Now we’ll see how he responds. Getting healthy is obviously the first priority, but while Shapovalov will be a seeded player for the French Open when it begins in 10 days, Raonic likely will not be.
Shapovalov, who just turned 19, couldn’t handle Nadal on Thursday in their first encounter since the young Canadian upset the Spaniard in Montreal last August. But few players can play with Nadal on the dirt. Shapovalov’s success in recent days on clay, a surface that befuddles most North Americans, has been another piece of evidence to support the theory held by many in tennis that he could be the game’s next great player.
It’s actually all happening more quickly that most would have guessed.
After a wonderful six weeks on tour last summer, including the semifinal appearance at the Rogers Cup, Shapovalov moved to No. 67 in the world and then moved up even further with a Round of 16 appearance at the U.S. Open.
He then won two matches for Canada in a Davis Cup win over India. He seemed to stall a little bit after that as he dealt with the challenges of being on the tour full-time, and it seemed like a good 2018 season would see him climb inside the top 30. Now, with great results in the clay season, the sky seems to be the limit for this year.
Top 20? Higher?
Health, quite obviously, will be one of the major determining factors. Shapovalov seems to be gaining experience by the day, and even had good moments again in the first set on Thursday against Nadal, fighting off eight break points in his first two service games before being broken on his third. The second set was all Nadal.
“I don’t think I played too bad today,” said Shapovalov afterwards. “It was really tight, really competitive.”
Pospisil got to No. 27 in the world in early 2014, and back inside the top 30 in 2015, but wasn’t able to stay at that level in singles competition. In doubles, Pospisil teamed with Jack Sock to win Wimbledon in 2014.
So getting to that elite level on the men’s tour is one thing. Staying there, and then getting as high as Raonic did, is quite another. Shapovalov has a better and more dynamic all-around game than either Raonic or Pospisil, and as he showed against Nadal in the first set, he’s beefing up his serve to become more of a weapon.
So Canadian tennis has a new king, at least for now. One suspects the great pride Raonic took in becoming the finest player this country has ever produced won’t simply evaporate if he can get his body to co-operate.
More matches between Shapovalov and Raonic on tour would be compelling, as would seeing them together playing for Canada in Davis Cup, possibly as early as this fall in a World Group playoff against the Netherlands.