Figuring out how things are going to line up in the UFC lightweight division after the latest wave of matchups have run their course and the next set of bookings begin to get announced is about as straightforward as deciding what to eat on a Friday night when no one wants to cook: there are an abundance of options, all of which are appealing, and getting down to a final decision could turn contentious if not handled correctly.
Matchmaking, like selecting the correct takeout spot, is difficult, and the process of figuring out what comes next for all the established names and standout talents in the 155-pound weight class is further complicated by a handful of unknowns.
Dustin Poirier could retire, which would take a perennial contender and superstar fighter off the board. Justin Gaethje has said that he’s taking some time away following his UFC 300 knockout loss to Max Holloway, who might be returning to featherweight to challenge Ilia Topuria for the 145-pound title, but also has a reasonable case for a championship opportunity at lightweight as well.
And then you have Conor McGregor and Michael Chandler, who are scheduled to face off in the main event of UFC 303 later this month in Las Vegas.
Sure, they’re fighting at welterweight, but each is best suited to competing at lightweight, and a blistering effort for either man would absolutely make them interesting names to considered in the championship conversation.
To be clear, they wouldn’t be merit-based considerations — it’d be McGregor’s first win in four years and Chandler’s first in over two, and that last one came against the ghost of Tony Ferguson — but there is no bigger draw in the sport than the Irishman and Chandler would get a huge boost in terms of his marketability and drawing power if he were to dispatch the returning former two-weight world champion on June 29 at T-Mobile Arena.
With those unknowns stated for the record, let’s start trying to figure this out.
A Couple Caveats
For the purposes of this exercise, we’re going to operate with the following things accepted as true:
1) Islam Makhachev will next defend his title against Arman Tsarukyan — I explained why it’s the fight that makes the most sense and should come next in my post-UFC 302 matchmaking column.
2) Poirier hangs up his gloves.
3) Gaethje keeps recovering.
4) Holloway does return to featherweight and fights Topuria for the belt
It’d be impossible to complete this project in any meaningful way without setting a couple clear guidelines or eliminating a couple variables, so it makes sense to get Poirier and Holloway out of the mix for now because that honestly seems like what is most likely to happen.
The McGregor-Chandler Conundrum
Rather than try to forecast both what happens in their upcoming fight and what will follow, these two are getting sidelined for this exercise as well because can any say with any kind of confidence that McGregor will fight again this year if he beats Chandler? He’d likely get to call his own shot if he wins, but he walked away for two years as a two-weight world champion, and now he’s 35, coming off a two-year injury hiatus, and doesn’t really need to wade into the fray to make money or remain wildly popular.
As for Chandler, he seems far more interested in fun fights, exciting fights than chasing a title necessarily, and while he might have the opportunity to cut the line in the lightweight division if he beats McGregor, that opportunity feels too far down the road to speculate about at this point in time.
So for now, let’s all just think positive thoughts that they make it to Las Vegas, compete on June 29 at UFC 303, and we’ll take it from there.
Booking the Lightweight Division
Now that we’ve got all the conditions, caveats, and conundrums out of the way, it’s time to get down to the business of pairing off these fighters and making the most meaningful and appropriate fights possible in the rugged lightweight ranks.
Here we go…
CHARLES OLIVEIRA vs. MATEUSZ GAMROT
The former champ is coming off a loss to Tsarukyan, but very much remains in the mix, while “Gamer” followed up his win via injury over Rafael Fiziev with a win via wrestling over Rafael Dos Anjos earlier this year. Gamrot is the next man up in terms of making a push for contention, and this would determine whether he’s ready for that kind of opportunity or not.
BENEIL DARIUSH vs. RAFAEL FIZIEV
Dariush entered last year on an eight-fight winning streak, capped by a win over Gamrot, but suffered a pair of first-round knockout loss to Oliveira and Tsarukyan, leaving him in a position to take a slight step back. Fiziev suffered a knee injury in his fight with Gamrot in September, and a return in the final quarter of 2024 would give both men plenty of time to recover and ramp up for what could be a highly entertaining showdown.
RENATO MOICANO vs. DAN HOOKER
Make this fight and take my money! Moicano is 5-0 at lightweight in the UFC and coming off a stoppage win over Jalin Turner, while Hooker bested Turner last July at UFC 290 in a fight where he broke his forearm. This is a perfect fight to kick off a loaded pay-per-view main card or serve as the featured bout on a less stacked show. Either way, it’s a winner and needs to happen.
JALIN TURNER vs. GRANT DAWSON
Dawson called for an opportunity to face “The Tarantula” following his methodical win over Joe Solecki at UFC 302, so why not just make that one happen? Turner is coming off his loss to Moicano and has struggled to find consistency, but he also feels a step ahead of Dawson in the division at this point, so why not put them in the Octagon together and see which one takes another step forward?
BENOIT SAINT DENIS vs. CARLOS DIEGO FERREIRA
There was a part of me that wanted to get Saint Denis a bigger fight following his UFC 299 matchup with Dustin Poirier, but that felt like a big step forward at the time, and now finding that more logical middle ground might be a better path forward. Ferreira returned to action with a stoppage win over Mateusz Rebecki earlier this spring and is the kind of dangerous, savvy veteran that the talented Frenchman needs to show he can beat before getting another chance to compete towards the top of the division. Book it as the co-main event in Paris.
RAFAEL DOS ANJOS vs. DRAKKAR KLOSE
There is a possibility Dos Anjos goes back to welterweight, but if he sticks around at lightweight, he’s the perfect dance partner for Klose, a perennially underrated fighter that needs a matchup with an established name if he’s ever going to make a real push towards the Top 15. This is a perfect Fight Night co-main event, and if Klose can earn a victory, he puts himself in a position to challenge someone with a number next to their name.
Fights Already Booked
In addition to McGregor versus Chandler at UFC 303, here are some other lightweight pairings already penciled into the schedule in the next couple months:
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Jared Gordon (Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Chimaev, June 22)
Drew Dober vs. Mike Davis (Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Barber, July 13)
Loik Radzhabov vs. Trey Ogden (Fight Night, July 20)
Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett (UFC 304, July 27)
Names to Watch in the Division
Lightweight is always one of the deepest, most talent-rich divisions in the sport, which means there is always an abundance of emerging names to track going forward. Some personal favourites that don’t currently have matchups on the books include:
Mauricio Ruffy: He showed out against Jamie Mullarkey at UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro and should get a step up in competition next time out.
Manuel Torres: The recent DWCS graduate is 3-0 in the UFC with three first-round finishes. “El Loco” is extremadamente peligroso and one to pay close attention to going forward.
Esteban Ribovics: After dropping his first appearance in the Octagon to Loik Radzhabov, Ribovics earned his second straight UFC victory last month with a 37-second knockout win over Terrance McKinney.
Nurullo Aliev: While he hasn’t fought since winning his promotional debut at the start of 2023, the 23-year-old Aliev remains an intriguing, high-upside prospects in a division with very few emerging names under the age of 25 at the moment.
Chase Hooper: Over the last year and change, Hooper has posted three straight wins while growing into his long, wiry frame, transforming into a genuine person of interest (at least for me) in the lightweight division.
