Is facing ex-champ Moreno in Mexico too much, too soon for Kavanagh?

Lone'er Kavanagh is presented with quite the opportunity this weekend as he braces to headline the first Fight Night event of his fighting career when the UFC returns to Mexico City for the third time in as many years.

England's Kavanagh accepted a short-notice opportunity to face former two-time flyweight champion Brandon Moreno this Saturday at Arena CDMX, and he will be entering enemy territory.

Moreno headlined each of the past two Mexico City cards. He lost a five-round split decision to Brandon Royval in February of 2024 and won a unanimous five-round decision over Steve Erceg there 11 months ago.

The 32-year-old from Tijuana became the first Mexican-born UFC champion back in 2021 when he submitted Deiveson Figueiredo in the second meeting in their four-fight series. He later lost, then regained the title against Figueiredo before dropping a split decision to Alexandre Pantoja in the summer of 2023 to lose the belt a third time. His climb back to the title is much steeper than it has been in recent years, and he hasn’t been on a winning streak longer than two fights in a row in nearly six years. 

Moreno is also making a relatively quick turnaround following a technical knockout loss to Tatsuro Taira at UFC 323 in early December, which was the first time in 34 professional bouts that an opponent was able to finish him.

Taira’s win over Moreno resulted in the Japanese fighter being granted the next title shot within the division, and now Kavanagh will attempt to significantly raise his flyweight stock when he takes a huge step up in competition in the form of Moreno.

Kavanagh is considered one of the most promising talents in the men's 125-pound weight class, but he is coming off the first loss of his career.

The 26-year-old karate-style striker hasn't competed since he was finished by Charles Johnson via TKO in August. Although Johnson is among the better flyweights on the UFC roster and is the only UFC fighter to beat current titleholder Josh Van, he isn’t anywhere close to being as accomplished or as well-rounded as Moreno.

Kavanagh is the betting underdog for a reason, however oddsmaker aren’t writing him off whatsoever. The youngster is a +175 underdog a few days out from the event, according to BetMGM odds, with Moreno roughly a two-to-one favourite. With such a wide gap in experience and accomplishments, one might think the betting line would be wider in favour of the former champion.

Although Kavanagh is stepping up on only about three weeks’ notice — and is travelling to compete at elevation no less — he should be in solid condition considering he had been preparing for a March 14 matchup with Bruno Silva before Moreno’s original opponent, Asu Almabayev, withdrew with an injury.

“Obviously we had to talk about it, work out logistics, but after that, it’s an immediate yes,” Kavanagh told UFC.com this week. “I’m very thankful for the UFC to give me the call. It gives me confidence that they believe in me, as well as my coaches believing in me, and that’s all I need.

“Brandon’s been around for a long time. He’s a legend, he seems like a nice guy, but I want to do whatever it takes to become champ. I’ve got one mission and I’m gonna do that.”

Moreno is still ranked No. 6 in the division. Kavanagh enters the weekend unranked.

Van and Taira have been slated to meet at UFC 327 in April, with Pantoja still recovering from his arm injury sustained in his fluke loss to Van less than three months ago. The top of the flyweight division is as wide open as it has been since Pantoja first took hold of the belt 2.5 years ago, so, for an upstart contender like Kavanagh, a statement win over a renowned and respected former champ could end up being a star-turning performance and a tone setter for the men’s flyweight division in 2026.

UNDERCARD OVERVIEW

Home game for half the card: The UFC Mexico City lineup is loaded with Hispanic fighters, with seven of the 13 matchups featuring a fighter from Mexico, including all six bouts on the main card. David Martinez, Daniel Zellhuber, Edgar Chairez, Imanol Rodriguez, Santiago Luna and Cristian Quinonez are all set to have the home-cage advantage, just like Moreno in the headliner.

The most notable matchup outside the main event is, fittingly, the co-main that sees Martinez take on one-time bantamweight title challenger Marlon Vera. Martinez, 27, has won nine in a row overall and beat veteran Rob Font in September in his second UFC appearance. Vera has lost three in a row and four of five

Zellhuber, 26, has lost two in a row, but the lightweight has a fun style and could be set up for success in his matchup with Bobby “King” Green, who recently snapped a two-fight skid at age 39.

The first two fights on the main card each have a Mexican fighter boasting an undefeated pro record. The 7-0 Luna meets American Angel Pacheco, and in the next matchup, 6-0 Rodriguez, who shone on the Contender Series in September to earn a UFC contract, faces Peru’s Kevin Borjas, who’s looking to improve on a 1-3 UFC record.

The lone Mexican on the prelims is Quinonez, who is matched with Milford, Mass.’s Kris Moutinho. Although the combined UFC record of these two is just 1-5, this actually sets up to be potentially one of the more entertaining matchups on the entire card since both go for broke every time they compete.

Moutinho has never gotten his hand raised in the UFC and is coming off a brutal KO loss to Malcolm Wellmaker 8.5 months ago. Prior to that loss, Moutinho had finished five consecutive opponents on the regional circuit, and all of Quinonez’s losses have been stoppages.

Below is the projected bout order for UFC Mexico City (subject to change):

MAIN CARD

-- Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh

-- Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez

-- Daniel Zellhuber vs. Bobby “King” Green

-- Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes

-- Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas

-- Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Ryan Gandra vs. Jose Daniel Medina

-- Ailin Perez vs. Macy Chiasson

-- Cristian Quinonez vs. Kris Moutinho

-- Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes

-- Sofia Montenegro vs. Ernesta Kareckaite

-- Erik Silva vs. Francis Marshall

-- Damian Pinas vs. Wesley Schultz