In the wake of Petr Yan’s comprehensive victory over Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 323 to recapture bantamweight gold, the root of such a surprising outcome — Dvalishvili entered the fight as a -430 favourite; Yan, a +340 underdog — has been presented as a dichotomy.
Either Dvalishvili flew too close to the sun, attempting too arduous a schedule in pursuit of becoming the first UFC champion to defend their belt four times in a calendar year and sabotaging his effectiveness in the process. Or Yan leveled up significantly between their first fight in 2023, which Dvalishvili dominated, and this one, which saw a near scorecard reversal, crafting a careful gameplan tailored to counter Dvalishvili’s relentlessness.
But why not both? Dvalishvili, an old school weight cutter known to spar on fight days, couldn’t possibly have been at his best facing a fourth top contender in 12 months, and third in the last six. Yet Yan’s a devastatingly proficient, accurate boxer with underrated fight IQ who progressively sharpens his approach the more he sees an opponent and downloads their tendencies.
Ultimately, they’re an incredible matchup of elite bantamweights. A trilogy is inevitable. And if both fighters are healthy and motivated, the UFC could book an immediate rematch sometime in the first half of 2026. But following the gruelling training and competition demands Dvalishvili endured throughout 2025, the best thing for him both physically and mentally must be an extended break.
Dvalishvili didn’t only fight four times in 2025. He completed 17 of 20 rounds, spending 89:42 of a possible 100 minutes in the octagon. Not to mention the repeated weight cuts or the additional promotional and media requirements champions inherit leading into their fights.
Dvalishvili doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who does leisure time well. But at the very least it’d be beneficial for him to spend a month or two directing his endless reservoir of energy towards something less physically, mentally, and emotionally gruelling than hand-to-hand combat on the world’s biggest stage.
So, let’s set him aside for the time being and try to sort out a first defence for Yan, who fought twice in both 2024 and 2025. Assuming he escaped the Dvalishvili fight without significant injury, a spring or early summer return ought to work. And there are a trio of fights already booked for early 2026 that could produce his challenger.
The beauty of a longtime champion being unseated is it freshens a division and opens a new world of title shot opportunities. Suddenly, the calculus has changed for everyone Dvalishvili had beaten previously. Here’s a look at those three first-quarter fights that could determine Yan’s first title defence. And after that, a bonus fight towards the middle of the top 10 that the UFC could make to build out the next layer of contenders for 2027 and beyond.
Three bantamweight fights already made
Song Yadong vs. Sean O’Malley
No one ought to be as happy to see Dvalishvili dethroned as the former champion O’Malley, who’d already lost to him in title fights twice. Suddenly, his path back to the belt has reopened, particularly considering he holds a split decision win over Yan from a 2022 clash.
That was a razor close, three-round fight — one many believed Yan deserved to win, which only adds to the case for a five-round rematch. And considering O’Malley’s popularity, it’s one you know the UFC would love to book. The only obstacle is Song.
And the explosive 28-year-old won’t be an easy one to overcome. Song’s an aggressive, powerful striker who can quickly close distance and disrupt the patient, long-range game O’Malley prefers to play. He’s not an opponent you want to get into a close-range firefight with.
O’Malley’s best bet may be to lean into his championship round experience and superior lateral movement to force Song into a chase, draining his energy while looking for the right moment to land with precision from distance should he over pursue.
Now, Song dropped a unanimous decision to Yan in 2024, so a victory over O’Malley may not be enough to earn him an immediate title shot. In that scenario, UFC may look to the result of this next matchup.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov’s skyrocketing stock took a hit following his January title shot when Dvalishvili exposed his inexperience, wearing him down with unyielding pressure over five dogged rounds. But Khabib’s cousin bounced right back in October with a convincing decision victory — 30-27 on all three scorecards — over Mario Bautista, who’d won eight straight and is not easy to look good against.
No one needs a Nurmagomedov to reinforce their grappling pedigree. But controlling Bautista — a jiu-jitsu black belt and submission specialist — on the ground for over two-thirds of the fight while out-striking him on the feet reestablished the Dagestani’s position as one of a stacked division’s most challenging matchups.
If he gets past Figueiredo — another accomplished grappler with powerful Muay Thai to boot — there won’t be much left for Nurmagomedov to do outside of a Dvalishvili rematch or a championship fight. And a Song victory over O’Malley would only solidify Nurmagomedov’s position as the division’s No. 1 contender.
Of course, no one should count out Figueiredo, who will be fighting for his career. At 38, and with recent losses to Yan and Cory Sandhagen on his resume, the former flyweight champion can’t afford to drop this fight. If he does, retirement may beckon. He’ll be throwing everything he has at Nurmagomedov — a dangerous proposition considering Figueiredo has as much power as anyone in the division.
There’s a slim title shot path here if Figueiredo can finish Nurmagomedov impressively and get a bit of luck in the way of a Song victory over O’Malley. In that situation, the UFC may want to make the most of what the veteran has left and get him into a championship fight quickly. As always in MMA, we can’t rule anything out. Even this next fight producing an unexpected challenger.
Vinicius Oliveira vs Mario Bautista
This is a big test for Oliveira, who’s undefeated in four UFC outings since entering the organization from the Contender Series in 2023. He has a huge frame for 135-lbs. and has leveraged it to overpower opponents throughout his run — both on the feet and the ground.
He walked off Victor Madrigal with a winging haymaker on the Contender Series, crumpled Bernardo Sopaj with a flying knee in his debut, and out-grappled dangerous submission artist Said Nurmagomedov while fighting through a rib injury. The UFC loves a highlight reel fighter and Oliveira consistently delivers.
But it doesn’t take a keen eye to see the openings in Oliveira’s game, particularly when he’s trying to force those highlights. He often fights with his hands at his waist, daring opponents to hit him while loading up for huge counters he throws with reckless abandon. A quick, calculated opponent could take advantage of that, using timing and precision to exploit Oliveira’s defensive abandonment.
Can Bautista be that guy? He’s as well-rounded and adaptable as anyone in the division, and while he isn’t the heaviest hitter, he moves well and can overwhelm opponents with volume. That’s how he strung together an eight-fight winning streak before getting out-wrestled by Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 321.
On fight IQ and experience alone, Bautista ought to be favoured here and he can quickly re-establish himself as a top 135-lbs. contender by defending his ranking position while turning away a rising prospect. But Oliveira’s a monster and he’s repeatedly shown it only takes one burst for him to add another name to his highlight reel. And if he can do it here, he could get fast-tracked by a promotion that loves its risk-taking, go-for-broke fighters.
One more fight to make
Aiemann Zahabi vs. Cory Sandhagen
Now, as the aforementioned half-dozen sort things out atop the division, the next tier of contenders need to keep busy. And a booking that could help set the stage for what comes next is one between the surging Zahabi and the slumping yet always dangerous Sandhagen.
Zahabi’s won seven straight, the last three against name brand bantamweights Pedro Munhoz, Jose Aldo, and Marlon Vera. But at 38, he’s also fighting the clock. The UFC might as well elevate him to the division’s upper rung now to see if he can keep this run going and force his way into the title picture.
And Sandhagen’s a great test. As fluid and creative as anyone in the sport, the 32-year-old presents a complex puzzle to solve and can thoroughly audit Zahabi’s technically proficient style. Not to mention that, after recent setbacks against Nurmagomedov and Dvalishvili, Sandhagen needs to defend his position in the rankings.
Both fighters are meticulous game planners with high fight IQ’s who could easily carry a Fight Night card in a five-round main event. And the stakes would be high for both, as Sandhagen tries to stay in the title conversation atop the division, and Zahabi strives to enter it.
