With 2025 coming to an end and the UFC’s championship schedule closed until late January, the year concludes with Valentina Shevchenko being the only champion who will have held their undisputed championship title continuously from the final day of 2024 through the end of 2025.
With new champions in the majority of the divisions, titleholders have managed to find their kryptonite despite looking unbeatable at the peak of their powers with Merab Dvalishvili being the most recent example after having lapped the competition in recent years.
Looking at a mostly new crop of champions heading into 2026, it poses the question of how beatable each one is with who they are likely to face in the coming year.
This article will examine that and assign a rating from 1 to 10 with 1 being highly unlikely to be defeated and 10 being highly likely to be unseated in the coming year.
WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT (115 POUNDS)
Current champion: Mackenzie Dern
Possible opponents in 2026: Zhang Weili, Tatiana Suarez, Yan Xiaonan
Beatability Rating: 9
There is no doubt that Dern has continued to improve incrementally throughout her UFC career, making gains mostly in the striking department having entered the promotion having already established one of the most decorated grappling resumes. She captured the vacant championship against Virna Jandiroba this year, and continues to thrive in matchup dependent situations against fighters who do not possess finishing power in a division that lacks fighters with such abilities.
If Zhang returns to the division, the likelihood of Dern defeating her is, in my estimation, slim. Against the likes of Suarez or Xiaonan, her chances of title retention are markedly higher, despite having a close loss to Xiaonan previously.Dern has earned respect for the evolution of her game, but of all of the UFC’s champions, many would likely consider her to be the most beatable.
WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT (125 POUNDS)
Current champion: Valentina Shevchenko
Possible opponents in 2026: Natalia Silva/Rose Namajunas winner, Manon Fiorot, Erin Blanchfield, Maycee Barber
Beatability rating: 4
Shevchenko has been the model of excellence and the gold standard in the women’s flyweight division and a looming question exists as to whether she continues to compete in the division that she has lorded over for most of its existence.
Should she continue to defend her championship, it would be surprising if her next challenger was not the winner of Silva and Namajunas. Her win at UFC 315 over Fiorot, who was favoured in their matchup, was nearly as impressive as her absolute dominance over Zhang at UFC 322.
If not for a 2023 loss to Alexa Grasso, there is certainly an argument for her to be considered the greatest female combat athlete of all-time, but it also shows that she is human and that the right opponent can come along at some point. The big question is whether there is a better chance of Shevchenko not holding the title at this time next year because she has decided to take another swing at bantamweight gold as opposed to losing to a flyweight challenger.
WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT (135 POUNDS)
Current champion: Kayla Harrison
Possible opponents in 2026: Amanda Nunes (scheduled for UFC 324 on Jan. 24), Valentina Shevchenko, Norma Dumont
Beatability rating: 4
Let’s be clear that if Nunes was not returning and Shevchenko wasn’t toying with the idea of moving up, her rating is a firm 1 and she is one of the most difficult-to-beat champions in the promotion. She is a small favourite against a returning Nunes and with the looming threat of Shevchenko moving up, her rating is impacted by what could be a difficult year ahead competitively.
MEN’S FLYWEIGHT (125 POUNDS)
Current champion: Joshua Van
Possible opponents in 2026: Manel Kape, Tatsuro Taira, Alexandre Pantoja
Beatability Rating: 8
This was the most difficult rating to determine because of the limited amount of time that we got to see him perform against Pantoja. With the early odds listing Van as an underdog against both Taira and Pantoja, the oddsmakers are leaning to the side of him being more beatable than not, but those projections ignore the continuous gains that he will be making as a young fighter.
Van certainly has the skills to beat his future challengers, but having seen a more complete performance by Taira against Moreno, Kape’s knockout capabilities, and knowing the dangers that Pantoja poses, I think that predicting that Van is the champion at this time next year is based more on assumption than evidence. It is certainly a possibility, but I need to see more before considering a lower rating.
MEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT (135 POUNDS)
Current champion: Petr Yan
Possible opponents in 2026: Merab Dvalishvili, Sean O’Malley, Umar Nurmagomedov
Beatability rating: 4
We witnessed what Yan was capable of at the peak of his powers in his rematch against Dvalishvili and it makes it difficult to pick against him going forward.
The reason for listing O’Malley and Nurmagomedov as possible opponents as opposed to their upcoming opponents is because Yan has recent wins over both Song Yadong and Deiveson Figueiredo and either or both of O’Malley and Nurmagomedov would receive strong consideration if they score wins at UFC 324.
O’Malley having a previous win over Yan paired with his marketability would make him a slam dunk for the next title shot if he defeats Song and Dvalishvili wants to take some much deserved time off. Based on what we saw at UFC 323, I am fairly confident that Yan is still the champion at this time next year.
FEATHERWEIGHT (145 POUNDS)
Current champion: Alexander Volkanovski
Possible opponents in 2026: Diego Lopes (scheduled for UFC 325 on Jan. 31), Lerone Murphy, Movsar Evloev
Beatability rating: 7
It would be a fitting ending for the career of Volkanovski to score another one-sided win in his rematch with Lopes and walk off into the sunset in his home country.Historically, fighters stick around for too long and are not afforded such a send-off and this is the rare situation where it is on the table. Volkanovski deserves such a swan song, but he also showed that he is still fighting at an elite level in how he handled Lopes the first time around.
If he fights beyond UFC 325, I feel that each subsequent fight will only grow in difficulty and I would be surprised if he is still the champion at this time next year due to either a decision to retire or to continue facing tough challengers. That being said, Volkanovski is the featherweight GOAT and should have everyone’s admiration.
LIGHTWEIGHT (155 POUNDS)
Current champion: Ilia Topuria
Possible opponents in 2026: Justin Gaethje/Paddy Pimblett winner, Arman Tsarukyan
Beatability rating: 2
Topuria has been an absolute menace, destroying all that is in his path in two weight classes. I would give Tsarukyan a small chance of being the one to stop him given his growth as a fighter, but outside of that small chance, I think that Topuria’s biggest rival is himself.
Taking time away from the Octagon to handle his personal issues is the right move and shows an awareness that he only aims to compete if he can put his best foot forward.
WELTERWEIGHT (170 POUNDS)
Current champion: Islam Makhachev
Possible opponents in 2026: Shavkat Rakhmonov, Ian Machado Garry, Kamaru Usman, Michael Morales
Beatability rating: 1
Makhachev looks to be the most complete fighter in the sport right now and, seemingly, the toughest out. I believe that if Rakhmonov can return to form that he is the stiffest test available. His size and well-roundedness paired with his finishing ability would be the toughest challenge that Makhachev has ever faced. Even so, picking against Makhachev seems like a fool’s errand at this stage.
MIDDLEWEIGHT (185 POUNDS)
Current champion: Khamzat Chimaev
Possible opponents in 2026: Nassourdine Imavov, Anthony Hernandez vs. Sean Strickland winner, Brendan Allen
Beatability rating: 2
Chimaev’s last two performances were very impressive. A shutout of Dricus Du Plessis and destruction of Robert Whittaker show that he is a force to be reckoned with.
Of the challengers available, I think that Hernandez poses the biggest threat, but the middleweight division remains thin and few viable upset candidates have emerged, which leads me to believe that Chimaev will lord over this division for as long as he wants to.
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT (205 POUNDS)
Current champion: Alex Pereira
Possible opponents in 2026: Carlos Ulberg, Jiri Prochazka, Magomed Ankalaev, Azamat Murzakanov
Beatability rating: 4
Pereira’s biggest liability has nothing to do with skill and everything to do with age and miles on the tank. While he has not competed in mixed martial arts for that long, his years of being a combat athlete could catch up with him at any time.
The light-heavyweight division is another where, save for Ulberg, very few new challengers have emerged and with Pereira having defeated Prochazka on two separate occasions, I would not be surprised to see Pereira try his hand at heavyweight should he defeat Ulberg. A wildcard option is the surging Murzakanov, who is 16-0 and possesses big power.
HEAVYWEIGHT (206-265 POUNDS)
Current champion: Tom Aspinall
Possible opponents in 2026: Ciryl Gane, Alexander Volkov, Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Beatability rating: 3
At this time last year, Aspinall (who was promoted from interim to undisputed champion in June) seemed untouchable. All it took to shatter that illusion was Gane looking capable against him for nearly one complete round and suddenly everyone believes that Aspinall is keeping the belt warm for him. Personally, I still believe that Aspinall is the superior fighter and with Gane being his most capable challenger, I think that Aspinall will be the heavyweight champion for the foreseeable future if he wins their rematch once he has recovered from the eye injuries he sustained at UFC 321.
