The first of three title fights on this weekend’s stacked UFC 259 card sees men’s bantamweight champion Petr Yan defend his belt for the first time against No. 1 contender Aljamain Sterling.
Yan won the vacant title (previously held by Henry Cejudo before his retirement announcement last May) at UFC 251 with a one-sided technical knockout victory over former two-time featherweight champion Jose Aldo. Sterling has been on a tear since 2018 and earned a title shot thanks to his incredible rear-naked choke submission victory over Cory Sandhagen at UFC 250 last year.
Neither fighter has the star power of an Israel Adesanya or Amanda Nunes, both of whom are also featured on Saturday’s card, but this 135-pound matchup has the potential to steal the show as a Fight of the Night contender.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Petr Yan
Nickname: No Mercy
Fighting out of: Yekaterinburg, Russia
Age: 28 | Height: 5-foot-7 | Weight: 135 pounds
Arm reach: 67 inches | Leg reach: 38 inches
Stance: Switch
Average fight time: 13:14
Background: Boxing, Muay Thai
MMA record: 15-1 | UFC record: 7-0
Notable wins: Jose Aldo, Urijah Faber, Jimmie Rivera, John Dodson
Notable Accomplishments: Won vacant UFC bantamweight title at UFC 251; former Absolute Championship Berkut bantamweight champion; avenged his only career loss; two UFC post-fight bonuses (one Fight of the Night, one Performance of the Night); declared Master of Sport in both boxing and MMA in his native Russia
Aljamain Sterling
Nickname: Funk Master
Fighting out of: Long Island, New York
Age: 31 | Height: 5-foot-7 | Weight: 135 pounds
Arm reach: 71 inches | Leg reach: 39 inches
Stance: Orthodox/Switch
Average fight time: 11:54
Background: Wrestling, Brazilian jiu-jitsu
MMA record: 19-3 | UFC record: 11-3
Notable wins: Cory Sandhagen, Pedro Munoz, Jimmie Rivera, Renan Barao
Notable Accomplishments: Current No. 1-ranked bantamweight contender; Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under former UFC champion Matt Serra; former Cage Fury Fighting Championships and Ring of Combat bantamweight champion
Yan has some of the most intelligent boxing in the UFC. His footwork, angles and balance help him land power from either orthodox or southpaw and he has the ability to switch stances mid-combination. The Russian has been training out of American Top Team in Florida for this fight camp – the same gym Nunes, Dustin Poirier, Jorge Masvidal and many other top UFC stars call home.
Sterling has the better grappling credentials, yet Yan’s 52 per cent takedown accuracy is better than Sterling’s 28 per cent and his takedown defence is 88 per cent compared to Sterling’s 51 per cent.
Yan does his best work in close when pressuring forward, but that could give Sterling an opportunity to clinch and work for takedowns as opposed to shooting from the outside. Sterling’s striking has improved markedly since his 2017 knockout loss to Marlon Moraes but getting the fight to the ground is his best chance – on paper, at least.
Yan’s low kicks can help nullify some of the length he gives up to Sterling and both fighters throw high kicks in tight and on breaks so watch for that.
Betting odds
Yan opened as a -145 favourite but money has come in on Sterling and as of Friday this title fight was a pick’em.
Yan had opened and closed as the favourite in all seven of his previous UFC bouts and was at least a two-to-one favourite in each of his past four outings. Meanwhile, Sterling has opened as an underdog five previous times in his UFC career, going 3-2 with the wins all being unanimous decisions.
Despite Yan being the champ, Sterling’s past two wins have been more impressive and he’s had the tougher strength of schedule throughout his career.
This should be an excellent championship fight.
Prop bet to consider: Over 3.5 rounds at -120
There’s a high probability this fight sees all 25 minutes considering the weight class, both fighters’ track records and their durability. Even if it doesn’t go the distance, I expect it to get into the championship rounds. If you favour one side and agree this is going to be a war of attrition then Sterling by decision at +333 or Yan by decision at +275 is where you’ll want to look. Fight to go the distance, regardless of who wins, also pays plus money.
UFC 259 MAIN CARD
-- Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya (for light-heavyweight title)
-- Amanda Nunes vs. Megan Anderson (for women's featherweight title)
-- Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling (for men's bantamweight title)
-- Islam Makhachev vs. Drew Dober
-- Thiago Santos vs. Aleksandar Rakic
UFC 259 PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Dominick Cruz vs. Casey Kenney
-- Song Yadong vs. Kyler Phillips
-- Joseph Benavidez vs. Askar Askarov
-- Rogério Bontorin vs. Kai Kara-France
-- Tim Elliott vs. Jordan Espinosa
-- Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Carlos Ulberg
-- Sean Brady vs. Jake Matthews
-- Livia Renata Souza vs. Amanda Lemos
-- Uros Medic vs. Aalon Cruz
-- Mario Bautista vs. Trevin Jones
