Middleweight titleholder Israel Adesanya is the latest UFC star to be given a chance at becoming a simultaneous two-weight champion.
If he emerges victorious in Saturday’s main event at UFC 259, he’ll join a group that consists only of Conor McGregor, Daniel Cormier, Henry Cejudo and Amanda Nunes — with Adesanya becoming the first undefeated fighter to accomplish the feat.
In order to do that, however, he’ll have to overcome imposing light-heavyweight champ Jan Blachowicz.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Jan Blachowicz
Fighting out of: Warsaw, Poland
Age: 38 | Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 205 pounds
Arm reach: 78 inches | Leg reach: 44 inches
Stance: Orthodox
Average fight time: 11:51
Background: MMA
MMA record: 27-8 | UFC record: 10-5
Notable wins: Dominick Reyes, Corey Anderson, Luke Rockhold, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza
Notable Accomplishments: Current UFC light-heavyweight champion; six UFC post-fight bonuses (five Performance of the Night, one Fight of the Night); former KSW light-heavyweight champion; Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
Israel Adesanya
Nickname: The Last Stylebender
Fighting out of: Auckland, New Zealand
Age: 31 | Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 200.5 pounds
Arm reach: 80 inches | Leg reach: 44.5 inches
Stance: Switch
Average fight time: 15:07
Background: Kickboxing
MMA record: 20-0 | UFC record: 9-0
Notable wins: Robert Whittaker, Yoel Romero, Paulo Costa, Anderson Silva, Kelvin Gastelum, Derek Brunson, Marvin Vettori
Notable Accomplishments: Current UFC middleweight champion; seven UFC post-fight bonuses (five Performance of the Night, two Fight of the Night); consensus fighter of the year in 2019; former Glory kickboxing title challenger; Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu purple belt under Andre Galvao
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3tH9bZbGnA
Adesanya is 20-0 in mixed martial arts, among the most talented strikers ever to compete in the UFC and currently sits as the No. 3-ranked men’s pound-for-pound fighter on the roster.
His last outing saw him embarrass rival Paulo Costa at UFC 253 in September. Mere minutes before Adesanya beat Costa, Blachowicz became champ of the 205-pound weight class when he knocked out Dominick Reyes at the same event.
Blachowicz is technically only champion because Jon Jones vacated the title, but handing Adesanya his first loss would mean a great deal to his legacy.
Betting odds
Adesanya opened as a -250 favourite and although the line has shifted slightly, it makes sense that Adesanya remains roughly a two-to-one favourite despite being the smaller fighter.
Adesanya’s striking has proven to be unmanageable for UFC middleweights but can that translate to success up a division? He has the statistical advantage over Blachowicz in strikes landed and strikes absorbed per minute, striking accuracy, striking defence and with 86 per cent takedown defence he has been able to lead the dance on the feet in all of his UFC appearances.
The last time we saw Blachowicz lose was two years ago against Thiago Santos, when he was caught with a counter left hand as Santos leaned back to avoid a Blachowicz blitz. That type of left hand is similar to how Adesanya finished both Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa, so Blachowicz simply cannot risk being reckless on his entries or he could meet the same fate.
According to the William Hill sportsbook, nearly 60 per cent of bets and more than 80 per cent of money bet on the main event is being placed on Adesanya.
Prop bets to consider: Blachowicz inside the distance at +260
There’s good reason why Adesanya by stoppage is listed at +130 and is the most probable result according to the odds. Adesanya by decision at +240 is also tasty, yet overall there’s really great value on Blachowicz considering the immense natural power he has shown lately — plus his well-roundedness.
One key element to consider for this matchup is that UFC 259 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, which uses the promotion’s smaller, 25-foot cage — instead of the regular, 30-foot Octagon. Blachowicz secures only 52 per cent of his takedowns, but the smaller cage should in theory help him close the distance and take away Adesanya’s best weapons.
If he can overpower Adesanya in the clinch, against the cage and gain top position on the ground I see him inflicting damaging ground-and-pound to set up a submission. A Blachowicz by submission prop pays at +800. He has a great arm-triangle, not to mention five wins via rear-naked choke. Perhaps it’s unlikely, but not completely improbable.
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UFC 259 MAIN CARD
— Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya (for light-heavyweight title)
— Amanda Nunes vs. Megan Anderson (for women’s featherweight title)
— Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling (for men’s bantamweight title)
— Islam Makhachev vs. Drew Dober
— Thiago Santos vs. Aleksandar Rakic
UFC 259 PRELIMINARY CARD
— Dominick Cruz vs. Casey Kenney
— Song Yadong vs. Kyler Phillips
— Joseph Benavidez vs. Askar Askarov
— Rogério Bontorin vs. Kai Kara-France
— Tim Elliott vs. Jordan Espinosa
— Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Carlos Ulberg
— Sean Brady vs. Jake Matthews
— Livia Renata Souza vs. Amanda Lemos
— Uros Medic vs. Aalon Cruz
— Mario Bautista vs. Trevin Jones
