The UFC is making its return to Canada for the first time in nearly four years with Saturday’s pay-per-view event taking place at Rogers Arena in Vancouver.
UFC 289 is headlined by a women’s bantamweight title fight between champion Amanda Nunes and challenger Irene Aldana with a co-main event featuring former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira returning to action against fellow top-five 155-pound contender Beneil Dariush.
The event also has five Canadian fighters from five separate weight classes competing: welterweight Mike Malott and middleweight Marc-Andre Barriault on the main card plus flyweight Jasmine Jasudavicius, bantamweight Aiemann Zahabi and featherweight Kyle Nelson on the preliminary card.
AMANDA NUNES vs. IRENE ALDANA
Nunes to win -370 | Aldana to win +255 | Draw +5100
Nunes by KO/TKO/DQ +145 | Aldana by KO/TKO/DQ +595
Nunes by decision +260 | Aldana by decision +725
Nunes by submission +495 | Aldana by submission +1200
Over 2.5 -135 | Under 2.5 +105
The headliner for this event was originally scheduled to be a trilogy bout between Nunes and Julianna Pena, however Pena withdrew from the event due to injured ribs. Her replacement, Aldana, has won four of her past five dating back to 2019 including knockout or TKO wins over Yana Kunitskaya, Ketlen Vieira and Macy Chiasson.
Aldana had roughly five weeks to prepare for Nunes and opened as a +475 underdog, per BestFightOdds, but that number has shortened in recent weeks. The Mexican fighter isn’t often an underdog, let alone one with odds this steep. The last time Aldana closed as an underdog was against Kunitskaya in July 2021 but she managed to finish that fight in the opening round.
This will be Aldana’s second career UFC main event. Her first was a five-round unanimous decision loss to former women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm in October of 2020 when she was swept on the scorecards.
Aldana’s best chance against Nunes is if she’s able to keep the bout on the feet and use her boxing skills. Aldana lands 5.39 significant strikes per minute compared to Nunes’s 4.40, however Nunes has the power advantage and Aldana absorbs 5.71 significant strikes per minute compared to only 2.75 for Nunes.
The champion has won 13 of her past 14 fights overall, winning by stoppage eight times and by decision five times during that stretch including in her rematch with Pena at UFC 277 when she got her belt back. Aldana has never been finished in the UFC.
CHARLES OLIVEIRA VS. BENEIL DARIUSH
Oliveira to win +125 | Dariush to win -165 | Draw +5100
Oliveira by KO/TKO/DQ +510 | Dariush by KO/TKO/DQ +290
Oliveira by decision +565 | Dariush by decision +305
Oliveira by submission +315 | Dariush by submission +460
Over 2.5 +160 | Under 2.5 -215
Dariush opened as a slight favourite and has remained chalk even though there is some late steam coming in on the former champ after both fighters stepped on the scales early Friday – Dariush weighed in at the limit for a non-title fight at 156 pounds while Oliveira was 154 pounds.
Oliveira had his 11-fight win streak snapped at UFC 280 last October when he was submitted by current lightweight champion Islam Makhachev in the second round of their title fight. The 33-year-old Brazilian has never lost two in a row when competing in the lightweight division. Oliveira’s last two-fight losing streak was back in 2016 when he primarily competed at featherweight.
Meanwhile, Dariush is on an eight-fight winning streak and should earn a lightweight title shot with a win over the former champion. Dariush was an underdog in his most recent outing when he picked up an impressive unanimous decision victory over Mateusz Gamrot on that same UFC 280 main card.
Both of these top-tier 155-pounders have excellent finishing ability, on the ground and when striking, but Dariush also boasts a strong wrestling base that he often uses to secure dominant positions.
The total rounds prop in this one will be interesting to watch here as Oliveira has only gone over 2.5 rounds once since 2014 – that was for his unanimous decision win over Tony Ferguson in late 2020 – while Dariush has gone the distance in each of his past three fights.
This fight is scheduled for three rounds, not five.
Interestingly, Oliveira has fought four times in Canada during his UFC career and is 0-4 in those bouts, losing to Jim Miller, Cub Swanson, Max Holloway and Anthony Pettis. Dariush has never previously competed in Canada.
The last time the UFC hosted an event in Canada was a UFC Fight Night in September 2019 also at Rogers arena; the last numbered event held in Canada was UFC 240 in Edmonton in July 2019.
All 22 fighters scheduled to compete at UFC 289 successfully made weight on Friday.
MAIN CARD
-- Amanda Nunes (-370) vs. Irene Aldana (+255)
-- Charles Oliveira (+125) vs. Beneil Dariush (-165)
-- Mike Malott (-235) vs. Adam Fugitt (+175)
-- Dan Ige (-260) vs. Nate Landwehr (+190)
-- Marc-Andre Barriault (-130) vs. Eryk Anders (+100)
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Nassourdine Imavov (-165) vs. Chris Curtis (+130)
-- Miranda Maverick (-315) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (+230)
-- Aiemann Zahabi (-115) vs. Aori Qileng (-115)
-- Kyle Nelson (+200) vs. Blake Bilder (-265)
-- David Dvorak (-295) vs. Stephen Erceg (+215)
-- Diana Belbita (-115) vs. Maria Oliveira (-115)
(Odds above via Sports Interaction as of Friday afternoon and subject to change)
