The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden this weekend with a double-dose of championship action as the two heaviest divisions in mixed martial arts will see two new champions crowned.

Saturday’s UFC 295 pay-per-view event is headlined by a vacant light-heavyweight championship between former titleholder Jiri Prochazka and former middleweight champ Alex Pereira. The co-main event is an interim heavyweight title bout between finishers Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall.

The event was originally headlined by Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic, however, that changed in October when Jones sustained a pectoral injury that’ll keep him sidelined well into next year.

Jones’s shadow still looms large over this event. Not only is he the current heavyweight champion, he used to rule over the 205-pound division for nearly a decade and the division has been unstable ever since his departure.

The four featured title competitors all successfully made weight Friday. Tom Aspinall (261.6) has a non-consequential weight advantage over Pavlovich (259.8), while both Pereira (204) and Prochazka (204.2) looked fresh after stepping on the scale one pound under the championship limit.

In addition to the two title fights, UFC 295 features Mackenzie Dern looking to get closer to a women’s flyweight title shot when she faces former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade. Also, New York’s Matt Frevola welcomes fellow red-hot lightweight Benoit Saint-Denis of France to town in what should be a Fight of the Night contender.

With that in mind, here’s a closer look at the two fights MMA fans are most looking forward to and the corresponding betting odds.

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JIRI PROCHAZKA VS. ALEX PEREIRA
Prochazka to win +100 | Pereira to win -125 | Draw +8000
Prochazka by decision +750 | Pereira by decision +850
Prochazka by KO/TKO/DQ +187 | Pereira by KO/TKO/DQ +120
Prochazka by submission +850 | Pereira by submission +1600
Over 1.5 rounds -155 | Under 1.5 rounds +115
Over 2.5 rounds +140 | Under 2.5 rounds -180
Fight to go the distance: Yes +390 | No -575

Prochazka opened as a slight favourite when this booking was initially announced but the line has since flipped. It has been 17 months since Prochazka won the title from Glover Teixeira with a dramatic fifth-round submission after a serious shoulder injury kept him out of action. Teixeira happens to be one of Pereira’s best friends and training partners, so there’s also a small element of revenge built into the storyline.

The last time the UFC was at MSG was one year ago, almost exactly to the day, when Pereira beat his longtime rival Israel Adesanya to win the middleweight title.

Pereira can become the ninth fighter in UFC history to win titles in two weight classes. The others are Randy Couture, B.J. Penn, Conor McGregor, Georges St-Pierre, Daniel Cormier, Amanda Nunes, Henry Cejudo and most recently Jon Jones. Pereira can set a record by doing it in the fewest number of fights as he’s set to compete in the Octagon for just the seventh time. Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski came up short in his second attempt to become a double-champ at UFC 294 in October.

If Pereira does join that illustrious club, it’ll be another feather in the cap of the former kickboxing champion. Pereira’s longtime rival Israel Adesanya attempted to win the light-heavyweight belt in 2020 but lost a decision to Jan Blachowicz, the fighter Pereira beat via split decision in July to ultimately earn this title shot.

Prochazka has a wild style utilizing a plethora of creative and unpredictable attacks offensively and defensively, both on the feet and on the ground, while Periera has some of the most pinpoint accurate and clean striking techniques we’ve ever seen from a UFC athlete.

Oddsmakers are predicting a knockout. If this becomes a war of attrition like so many of Prochazka’s previous fights then those juicy submission odds all of a sudden become more tempting even though going for the knockout is the primary strength of both fighters.

SERGEI PAVLOVICH VS. TOM ASPINALL
Pavlovich to win -110 | Aspinall to win -110 | Draw +8000
Pavlovich by decision +1600 | Aspinall by decision +1200
Pavlovich by KO/TKO/DQ +120 | Aspinall by KO/TKO/DQ +200
Pavlovich by submission +1600 | Aspinall by submission +375
Over 1.5 rounds +160 | Under 1.5 rounds -210
Fight to go the distance: Yes +700 | No -1200

This one is a true toss-up and, just like with the main event, oddsmakers are not expecting it to last very long. Essentially this bout comes down to this: Aspinall is a craftsman with more tools in his toolbelt, and Pavlovich only requires a hammer.

Pavlovich uses his reach effectively, hurting opponents with a powerful jab and frequently using it to set up his uppercuts and overhand rights. And even when he’s in tight, he has the torque to land damaging punches from odd angles within clinching distance. He has been a gorilla in his past six fights, often shrugging off takedown attempts with ease, and putting all of his opponents since 2019 away in the first round. He’s the closest fighter to Francis Ngannou the UFC has on its roster at the moment.

If Aspinall keeps his chin high and exposed when throwing in tight and gets hit clean like he did right before finishing Marcin Tybura, he may come to regret that type of aggression. Pavolivich has won firefights in under 60 seconds against Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa, both harder punchers than Aspinall. Pavolivich lands 8.72 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.33; Aspinall lands 7.65 and eats just 2.90.

None of Pavlovich’s past opponents have speed like Aspinall, though, and that could be the Brit’s biggest advantage here. Timing and speed are proven ways to beat power and Aspinall can use that speed and his crafty footwork to cause some split-second hesitation in his opponent, then when the time is right, shoot a powerful double-leg takedown. If Pavolivich has a clear power advantage on his feet, Aspinall has one on the mat. Will Aspinall look to Pavlovich’s lone loss, a first-round ground-and-pound TKO to Alistair Overeem in 2018, as a possible path to victory?

This is one of those “there’s no way this goes the distance” kind of matchups where even the fight total prop elicits excitement. Pavolivich’s average fight time in the UFC is 2:23 and Aspinall’s is 2:19.

Pavlovich was named the official backup fighter for Jones-Miocic so he had been preparing to potentially compete on Nov. 11. Aspinall was not, so if either is at a preparedness disadvantage it’s the England native. Aspinall is also making his PPV debut and hasn’t fought in the United States in more than two years. Will either matter at all on Saturday night?

Here is the complete UFC 295 fight card:

MAIN CARD
-- Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira
-- Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall
-- Mackenzie Dern vs. Jessica Andrade
-- Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
-- Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini

PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa
-- Tabatha Ricci vs. Loopy Godinez
-- Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts
-- Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
-- Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen
-- John Castaneda vs. Kang Kyung-ho
-- Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas
-- Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers

(Odds above via Bet365 as of Friday and subject to change)

UFC 295 preview: Expect finishes, possibly early ones, in two title fights

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