UFC 316 Cage Locks: Are both titles in jeopardy of changing hands?

Multiple titles are on the line this weekend at UFC 316 with one reigning champion heavily favoured and the other a significant underdog.

Men’s bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili is close to a three-to-one favourite to defeat Sean O'Malley for the second time in nine months, and women’s bantamweight titleholder Julianna Peña is more than a five-to-one underdog going up against challenger Kayla Harrison.

Multiple title changes at the same event are rare occurrences, yet it happened relatively recently on the night Dvalishvili and O'Malley first fought each other. Dvalishvili won the title with a unanimous decision over O’Malley in the main event at UFC 306 in September after Valentina Shevchenko reclaimed the women’s flyweight title from Alexa Grasso in the co-main event.

UFC 316 features 13 bouts, including the UFC debut of former Bellator MMA bantamweight champion Patchy Mix who will face streaking top-10 contender Mario Bautista on the main card.

Below is the projected bout order for Saturday’s event that takes place in New Jersey, plus full predictions…

MAIN CARD
-- Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley (five rounds)

-- Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison (five rounds)

-- Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

-- Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix

-- Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Bruno Silva vs. Joshua Van

-- Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro

-- Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

-- Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson

-- MarQuel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski

-- Ariane da Silva vs. Wang Cong

-- Jeka Saragih vs. Joo-sang Yoo

-- Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Azamat Murzakanov -588
Favourite: Patchy Mix -180
Underdog: Sean O’Malley +240
Dart Throw: O’Malley by decision +600

It is a shame that Murzakanov has not been very active since signing with the UFC, because he is a top-five calibre talent in a shallow light-heavyweight division. I expect him to beat Ribeiro decisively. … Patchy Mix did not look great during his last outing, but I expect him to rise to the occasion for his UFC debut against an always tricky Bautista. … Dvalishvili is on an amazing run, but there is too much value on O’Malley in a rematch of a fight where these odds were flipped last time around.

DAN'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Joo Sang Yoo -500
Favourite: Marquel Mederos -200
Underdog: Waldo Cortes Acosta +125
Dart Throw: Julianna Pena +525

I know it's difficult to see an outcome where Kayla Harrison doesn’t get her hand raised on Saturday but where have we seen this movie before? Julianna Pena has made a career out of upsetting the odds including a victory over the great Amanda Nunes. Pena has brought in one of Harrison’s former judo coaches to work on the grappling aspects of her game and will throw the kitchen sink in pursuit of victory. Kayla has never gone five rounds against anyone on Pena’s level at bantamweight. If this goes into deep waters with the lights on bright at UFC 316 we might all be reminded just how great Pena is. Again.

When Marquel Mederos arrived in the UFC he had a reputation of being a dangerous striker. Since then, he’s also proved to be a cerebral fighter and not overextend himself in pursuit of a finish. He’s 2-0 in the UFC with both wins coming by decision. His opponent Mark Choinski makes his UFC debut on short notice but is a serious submission threat, but Mederos has never been submitted before and should be able to negate his opponents biggest weapon. … Waldo Cortes Acosta is like a shape-shifting unicorn in the heavyweight division. He’s comfortable on the ground but also willing to swing for the fences depending on the occasion. In his last four fights he adapted his game to each of his opponents’ weaknesses and now holds consecutive wins over Lukasz Brzeski, Andrei Arlovski, Robelis Despaigne and Ryan Spann in under two years! His opponent Serghei Spivac has been slept twice during this same time frame. I wouldn’t be surprised if the moneyline for this bout becomes a pick ‘em by the time Bruce Buffer introduces them on Saturday.

MIKE'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Wang Cong -555
Favourite: Patchy Mix -180
Underdog: Vicente Luque +220
Dart Throw: O’Malley by KO/TKO in rounds 2-3 +1025

If O’Malley is going to win back the title I think it’ll be because he catches Merab with a clean shot like he did with Aljamain Sterling. … If Luque’s chin holds up I like him at this number against an inconsistent Holland, and I’m a big believer in Mix even though this is a rather difficult style matchup for his UFC debut. … If you are cheering for Wang Cong to win this weekend, please do not look at my shoddy Cage Lock record because I have been a mush, yet for the second consecutive event I’m going against a fighter who missed weight by a wide margin as a matter of principle. Cong should be able to outclass her opponent on the feet and likely get a finish. She’ll just need to avoid getting taken down and smothered by a fighter who’ll have a significant weight advantage. Really dislike all the inflated odds on this card overall.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Murzakanov + Yoo + Cong
Parlay odds: -152 (to win: $65.71)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 18 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 
2025 record: 10-8 (L2)
2025 winnings: +$314.90 (on $100 bets)

AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (+7.53 units)
Cage Lock: 15-3 (+$35.43)
Favourite: 9-9 (-$407.74)
Underdog: 10-7-1 (+$725.24)
Dart throw: 4-14 (+$400)

DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (-2.47 units)
Cage Lock: 17-1 (+$246.79)
Favourite: 9-7-1 (-$189.40)
Underdog: 12-6 (+$835.24)
Dart throw: 1-16-1 (-$1,140)

MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (-11.82 units)
Cage Lock: 12-6 (-$141.32)
Favourite: 11-7 (+$168.84)
Underdog: 7-10-1 (+$390)
Dart throw: 0-16-2 (-$1,600)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)