UFC 317 Cage Locks: Topuria, Pantoja significant betting favourites

International Fight Week culminates with UFC 317 that features a pair of anticipated title fights going down Saturday night in Las Vegas.

Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira will go toe-to-toe for the vacant lightweight title in the headline bout and Alexandre Pantoja puts his flyweight title on the line against Kai Kara-France in the co-main event.

Topuria is the former undisputed featherweight champion who vacated his title earlier this year after stating the weight cut down to 145 pounds became too much of a burden. Oliveira is a former 155-pound champion looking to become the first two-time lightweight titleholder.

Topuria is more than a four-to-one favourite while Pantoja has -250 odds that favour him to earn a fourth consecutive title defence.

Flyweight contenders Brandon Royval and Joshua Van are featured in a three-round main card contest with the winner likely positioning themself to face the winner of Pantoja vs. Kara-France for the next 125-pound title shot.

One scheduled preliminary bout was cancelled at Friday’s weigh-ins but UFC 317 is set to proceed with 11 fights.

Below is the projected bout order plus full predictions:

MAIN CARD

-- Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira

-- Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France

-- Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van

-- Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

-- Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues

-- Hyder Amil vs. Jose Delgado

-- Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez

-- Terrance McKinney vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

-- Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines

-- Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Topuria vs. Oliveira does not go the distance -550

Favourite: Renato Moicano -115

Underdog: Brandon Royval +105

Dart Throw: Oliveira by submission +700

Topuria and Oliveira are such potent finishers that I would be shocked, albeit pleasantly surprised, if we got 25 minutes out of them. Highly unlikely. … For whatever reason, the price tag on Moicano is shorter for his matchup against Dariush than it was when they were slated to face off earlier this year in Los Angeles. A strange market correction that makes me lean towards Moicano. … Royval’s veteran savvy should give him an advantage over Van, who also tends to be a slow starter, which can be a problem against the in-your-face style of Royval. … As for the dart, if you give me +700 for Oliveira by submission against any human being that is in his weight class, that’s an offer that I simply cannot refuse.

DAN'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Jacobe Smith -1400

Favourite: Alexandre Pantoja -250

Underdog: Viviane Araujo +200

Dart Throw: Moicano by KO/TKO/DQ +500

A back-to-basics approach didn’t go so well last week where I went an appalling 0-4, but Baku was a bonkers card results wise and things should normalize this week with a Vegas PPV. Once again, my lock is the biggest favourite on the card. … Pantoja has shown that he rules the flyweight division. He has run through all challengers and isn’t fazed by having to go five rounds, in fact he has thrived in this environment. Kai Kara-France is good, but I don’t think he is levels above any of Pantoja’s recent title challengers. The Cannibal feasts once again at T-Mobile arena.

I can’t believe Viviane Araujo is the underdog in her bout with Tracey Cortez. I expect the money line to move here in the days leading up to the fight. Pounce on Araujo at plus money while you still can. It's been a while since Cortez has been in the Octagon. She had only one fight in 2024 and it was a convincing loss to Rose Namajunas in Denver. With all these question marks surrounding which version of Cortez will show up, I think Araujo gets her hand raised and quite possibly by submission too. … I’m not buying the Dariush is old argument. Afterall, Moicano is just 15 days younger. But I think the current odds are sleeping on Moicano’s KO power because of his loss to Islam Makhachev back in January. Let’s not forget that Moicano was running through opponents before taking that title fight on one day’s notice. “Moicano is Money” is not just a great catchphrase, I think it applies on Saturday night.

MIKE'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Pantoja vs. Kara-France reaches second round -714

Favourite: Felipe Lima -181

Underdog: Beneil Dariush +105

Dart Throw: McKinney by submission in Round 2 +1800

Kara-France has three first-round KO wins in the UFC, including in his most recent outing, but Pantoja has never been chinned and if it ends up happening at UFC 317 I don’t think it’ll be early. I also think Kara-France will be vigilant defensively especially in Round 1. This should be a safe parlay piece for a flyweight title fight. … Perhaps Payton Talbott’s loss earlier this year to Raoni Barcelos earlier this year was an anomaly but I view Felipe Lima as a future title contender with more ways to win this matchup. … If Dariush’s chin holds up I see him having advantages over Moicano in both wrestling and in physical strength, which could be the difference in this even lightweight matchup between two fighters who are easy to cheer for.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY

Three legs: Topuria vs. Oliveira ends inside the distance + Smith + Pantoja vs. Kara-France sees Round 2

Parlay odds: -225 (to win: $44.35)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 21 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 

2025 record: 11-10 (L2)

2025 winnings: +$180.61 (on $100 bets)

AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (+11.56 units)

Cage Lock: 17-4 (-$26.55)

Favourite: 10-11 (-$552.79)

Underdog: 12-8-1 (+$985.24)

Dart throw: 5-16 (+$750)

DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (-7.10 units)

Cage Lock: 18-3 (+$66.79)

Favourite: 12-8-1 (-$197.73)

Underdog: 13-7-1 (+$860.24)

Dart throw: 1-19-1 (-$1,440)

MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (-17.41 units)

Cage Lock: 15-6 (-$64.25)

Favourite: 13-8 (+$32.94)

Underdog: 7-12-2 (+$190)

Dart throw: 0-19-2 (-$1,900)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)