It’s not often you see a reigning, defending champion who has never previously lost in the UFC enter a title defence as an underdog yet that is where Dricus Du Plessis finds himself ahead of UFC 319.
The middleweight champion is not expected to defend his title on Saturday in Chicago, according to oddsmakers who have Khamzat Chimaev listed as more than a two-to-one betting favourite.
Watch UFC 319 on Sportsnet+
Dricus Du Plessis will look to defend the middleweight title against undefeated challenger Khamzat Chimaev. Watch UFC 319 on Saturday, Aug. 16 with prelim coverage beginning 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT, and pay-per-view main card starting at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT.
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Chimaev will look to follow in the footsteps of Magomed Ankalaev and Kayla Harrison, both of whom became champions earlier this year after entering their matchups as the betting favourites against incumbent champs Alex Pereira and Julianna Pena, respectively.
The 14-0 Chimaev is coming off consecutive victories over former UFC champions Kamaru Usman and Robert Whittaker.
Du Plessis, meanwhile, is 9-0 in the UFC with consecutive wins over past middleweight champs Sean Strickland (twice), Israel Adesanya and Whittaker.
There are three other middleweight matchups scheduled for UFC 319, including the UFC debut of Baysangur Susurkaev who earned a UFC contract earlier this week after he picked up a win Tuesday on Dana White’s Contender Series.
Susurkaev, who’s a touted training partner of Chimaev, will take on fellow UFC newcomer Eric Nolan in a featured preliminary bout. Former Chimaev opponent Gerald Meerschaert faces Michal Oleksiejczuk on the prelims in what should be an action-packed encounter.
The UFC 319 main card also features one-time 185-pound title challenger Jared Cannonier taking on the unique style of Michael “Venom” Page who has found success as a middleweight after moving up from the welterweight division.
Saturday’s co-main event sees Lerone Murphy and former Bellator MMA star Aaron Pico compete for possibly the next featherweight title shot.
Below is the projected bout order plus predictions for UFC 319:
MAIN CARD
-- Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev (for UFC middleweight title)
-- Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico
-- Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates
-- Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page
-- Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Baysangur Susurkaev vs. Eric Nolan
-- Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
-- Jessica Andrade vs. Loopy Godinez
-- Alexander Hernandez vs. Chase Hooper
-- Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose
-- Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa
-- Alibi Idiris vs. Joseph Morales (TUF 33 flyweight final)
Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.
AARON'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Meerschaert vs. Olekziejczuk does not go the distance -350
Favourite: Edson Barboza -115
Underdog: Jared Cannonier +180
Dart Throw: Elliott wins by submission +750
I have a lot of trouble seeing Meerschaert and Olekziejczuk going the distance and am surprised that the price isn't higher. … Barboza is going to give Klose fits with his distance management and I feel he is still dangerous despite his advanced age, especially with the move back to lightweight. … Submission is Elliott’s best winning condition against Asakura and you get it at a good price.
DAN'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Chase Hooper -285
Favourite: Carlos Prates -208
Underdog: Lerone Murphy +155
Dart Throw: Eric Nolan +725
Not a lot of big favorites on this card but I still prefer Chase Hooper’s chances of winning as opposed to trying to pick a fight prop. Hooper is younger, faster, bigger and holds a reach advantage over Alexander Hernandez. With wins over the likes of Jim Miller and Clay Guida, he has already shown that he is capable of stepping in the Octagon and thriving against more experienced opponents. … Carlos Prates was on a rocket ship up the rankings prior to being defeated by Ian Machado Garry who used his size, experience and fight IQ to win on scorecards. I don’t think Geoff Neal can do that, nor does he intend too. I think both fighters look to try and end this inside the distance, in which case I like Prates’ chances.
Aaron Pico is going to be a great UFC fighter but debuts with the lights on bright are not easy. Kai Asakura, Patricio Pitbull, Patchy Mix and Marcus Buchecha all came in with a ton of hype and fanfare and all lost their debuts. Lerone Murphy is a top UFC fighter who will ask some serious questions of Pico when the bell rings Saturday. By the time Pico finds his feet, adjusts to the calibre of a UFC opponent, and deals with the pressure of the occasion, it could be too late. … I don't know much about Eric Nolan to be honest but I think the odds here are being heavily influenced by all the hype surrounding Baysangur Susurkaev's viral victory on DWCS this week. Saturday we’ll find out if the hype is real. It could very well be, but I think Nolan puts up a good fight here.
MIKE'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Hernandez vs. Hooper sees Round 2 -400
Favourite: Edson Barboza -115
Underdog: Dricus Du Plessis +215
Dart Throw: Jessica Andrade by KO/TKO in under 1.5 rounds +850
The main event, for me, comes down to whether Du Plessis can avoid giving up his back early and whether he can avoid exposing his neck when trying to scramble back to his feet after (not if) he gets taken down. If he can make Chimaev expel energy early then we will eventually see Du Plessis take control of the fight and land some damaging strikes. Plenty of live dogs on this card in my opinion.
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Meerschaert vs. Olekziejczuk inside the distance + Hooper + Hernandez vs. Hooper sees Round 2
Parlay odds: +117 (to win: $117.11)
2025 STANDINGS AFTER 27 EVENTS
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
2025 record: 15-12 (L1)
2025 winnings: +$202.49 (on $100 bets)
AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (57-50-1, +16.67 units)
Cage Lock: 22-5 (-$49.36)
Favourite: 13-14 (-$713.28)
Underdog: 15-11-1 (+$1,180.24)
Dart throw: 7-20 (+$1,250)
DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (55-50-3, -8.54 units)
Cage Lock: 23-4 (+$36.39)
Favourite: 15-11-1 (-$375.92)
Underdog: 15-11-1 (+$775.24)
Dart throw: 2-24-1 (-$1,290)
MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (46-58-4, -18.07 units)
Cage Lock: 20-7 (-$62.23)
Favourite: 15-12 (-$210.14)
Underdog: 10-15-2 (+$400)
Dart throw: 1-24-2 (-$1,935)
Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.
Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.
Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.
Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.
(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)
