UFC 323 Cage Locks: Are Dvalishvili, Pantoja too much for challengers?

There are two titles on the line Saturday at UFC 323, which is the penultimate UFC event of 2025.

A men’s bantamweight championship rematch between defending champ Merab Dvalishvili and former two-time titleholder Petr Yan headlines the action with men’s flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja looking for his fifth consecutive title defence when he takes on Joshua Van in the co-main event.

Both incumbent champions are expected to retain their belts, according to oddsmakers. Dvalishvili is attempting to set a record by becoming the first fighter in UFC history to successfully defend his title four times in a single calendar year.

In addition to the two title fights, three former champions compete on the main card.

Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno will look to extend his current winning streak to three when he faces touted 25-year-old contender Tatsuro Taira. Former flyweight and bantamweight champ Henry Cejudo will have his farewell fight against Payton Talbott before heading into retirement. The main card opens former light-heavyweight titleholder Jan Blachowicz aiming to snap a three-fight winless streak going up against dangerous 205-pound finisher Bogdan Guskov who’ll be looking for his fifth consecutive stoppage win.

The stacked preliminary card is full of talent from the lightweight division, including a featured bout between Grant Dawson and Manuel Torres, a meeting of fan-friendly finishers Terrance McKinney and Chris Duncan, and a Fight of the Night contender with Nazim Sadykhov taking on Fares Ziam.

Below is the projected bout order for UFC 323 (subject to change) plus full predictions: 

MAIN CARD

-- Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (five rounds for bantamweight title)

-- Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (five rounds for flyweight title)

-- Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira

-- Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott

-- Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres

-- Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan

-- Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva

-- Nazim Sadykhov vs. Fares Ziam

-- Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira

-- Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner

-- Iwo Baraniewski vs. Ibo Aslan

-- Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trocoli

-- Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON'S PICKS

Cage Lock: McKinney vs. Duncan ends inside the distance -1600

Favourite: Alexandre Pantoja -225

Underdog: Brandon Moreno +115

Dart Throw: Grant Dawson by decision +500

McKinney vs. Duncan ending inside the distance seems like a slam dunk. I would be shocked if we see the scorecards in that one, but this sport has the capacity to do that. … Pantoja is leagues ahead of Van at this stage in his career and unless he has made some big gains, I do not see many good paths to victory for Van. … I will also side with experience and go with Moreno as an underdog. While Taira has a tricky game, Moreno is in his prime and has only been defeated by the very best. … Dawson’s best path to victory against Torres is to neutralize him and keep him grounded. I was surprised to see that Dawson by decision was being offered at such long odds with three of his last four wins being earned on the scorecards.

DAN'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Mansur Abdul-Malik -1000

Favourite: Alexandre Pantoja -225

Underdog: Brandon Moreno +115

Dart Throw: Grant Dawson by decision +500

Mansur Abdul-Malik is the biggest betting favourite on the card and likely makes a statement with an emphatic victory on Saturday night. There’s little MMA evidence to suggest otherwise here. … Alexandre Pantoja has beaten better opposition than Joshua Van. While Van will pose some slightly different challenges, particularly with the quick and explosive striking, the champ will eventually take this to the ground and wear on his opponent over five rounds. … Brandon Moreno as an underdog against anyone in the division is great value. Moreno is a more cerebral fighter than Tatsuro Taira and if he is able to offset his opponent’s strengths, which history tells us he can, I expect the former champ to get his hand raised. … Dawson is the oddsmakers favourite in his bout with Manuel Torres. And while all roads point to a finish inside the distance, I think this clash of styles will turn this one into an MMA chess match to be decided on scorecards. The fact you can get the favourite by decision at these odds is great value.

MIKE'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Jalin Turner -300

Favourite: Alexandre Pantoja -225

Underdog: Petr Yan +350

Dart Throw: Nazim Sadykhov by submission +1000

Picking against Merab has been a losing endeavour in recent years and if you consider how the first Dvalishvili-Yan matchup unfolded there’s not much to look at to think the rematch will have a different result. However, I view the second meeting as far more competitive than these odds would suggest. I’m a big believer in Yan and don’t think he should be this big an underdog. … Josh Van becoming champ at age 24 would be an incredible story. Van is one of the most exciting fighters in the entire sport but if he can’t keep this fight on the feet he doesn’t have any chance and I see Pantoja being able to dictate where this matchup takes place. … I like Turner’s mindset after a brief retirement and Barboza is nearing the end of his career. … I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sadykhov get takedowns if they’re available and ZIam has been submitted in the past.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY

Three legs: McKinney vs. Duncan inside the distance + Abdul-Malik + Turner

Parlay odds: -179 (to win: $55.84)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 40 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 

2025 record: 22-18 (L2)

2025 winnings: +$221.12 (on $100 bets)

AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (80-77-3, +15.58 units)

Cage Lock: 31-7-2 (-$56.29)

Favourite: 22-18 (-$590.96)

Underdog: 18-21-1 (+$855.24)

Dart throw: 9-31 (+$1,350)

DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (84-71-5, -8.19 units)

Cage Lock: 35-5 (+$190.76)

Favourite: 26-13-1 (-$135.57)

Underdog: 20-19-1 (+$715.24)

Dart throw: 3-34-3 (-$1,590)

MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (63-91-6, -31.02 units)

Cage Lock: 27-12-1 (-$336.87)

Favourite: 20-20 (-$595.51)

Underdog: 14-24-2 (+$140)

Dart throw: 2-35-3 (-$2,310)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)