UFC 325 Cage Locks: Title rematch has identical odds as first fight

Diego Lopes came up short as an underdog when he took on Alexander Volkanovski for the featherweight title last year and has a chance to avenge that loss Saturday at UFC 325, once again as a slight underdog.

When Volkanovski and Lopes met last year in Miami the betting line closed with Volkanovski roughly a -145 favourite with Lopes listed at about +120 and on the eve of the 145-pound championship rematch the latest odds are identical.

This suggests oddsmakers are expecting another competitive fight expected to last into the later rounds.

The first fight went the distance with Volkanovski earning a five-round unanimous decision yet this time there is a slight lean on the rematch not going the distance.

Over 4.5 rounds and under 4.5 rounds have equal odds, as do both Lopes and Volkanovski when it comes to ending the fight via KO/TKO with oddsmakers giving each fighter a +300 shot at finding a knockout.

UFC 325 also features lightweight fan favourites Dan Hooker and Benoit Saint Denis battling it out in the co-main event, plus a slew of Australian fighters competing in front of the home fans.

One preliminary card matchup was cancelled Friday following the official weigh-in and the card will proceed with 13 bouts from Sydney’s Qudos Bank Arena.

Below is the projected bout order (subject to change) for UFC 325 plus full predictions from our UFC panel who made good on their first Cage Locks Parlay of 2026 last week:

MAIN CARD

-- Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

-- Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis

-- Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy

-- Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira

-- Quillan Salkilld vs. Jamie Mullarkey

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Junior Tafa vs. Billy Elekana

-- Cameron Rowston vs. Cody Brundage

-- Jacob Malkoun vs. Torrez Finney

-- Jonathan Micallef vs. Oban Elliott

-- Kaan Ofli vs. Yi Zha

-- Kim Sang-wook vs. Dom Mar Fan

-- Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Sebastian Szalay

-- Sulang Rangbo vs. Lawrence Lui

Ahead of each UFC event in 2026, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Teixeira/Tuivasa does not go the distance -1000

Favourite: Alexander Volkanovski -143

Underdog: Kaan Ofli +170

Dart Throw: Salkilld vs. Mullarkey goes the distance +475

We have seen strange results in the heavyweight division, but it would be a surprise to see Tuivasa and Teixeira go the distance based on how they fight. … Volkanovski is a small favourite after how easily he outpointed Lopes less than a year ago and I do not expect that Lopes has made up enough ground unless Father Time suddenly catches up to the champion. … Ofli looked great in his last outing and I believe his fight with Yi Zha should be lined closer. … Salkilld looks to be a great prospect, but his finishing rate isn’t so high that winning inside the distance should be a foregone conclusion against Mullarkey. While I think this is actually a step down in competition for Salkilld, Mullarkey has what it takes to make this a tough fight.

DAN'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Quillan Salkilld -715

Favourite: Billy Elekana -250

Underdog: Oban Elliott +114

Dart Throw: Torrez Finney by KO/TKO +500

I went swinging for the fences last week and ended up grounding out on the first event of the year, but defeat is always momentary as the UFC returns with another numbered event and a chance at getting back in the win column. Salkilld is the biggest betting favourite and is the safest bet on the card. … Elekana has bounced back nicely with two wins since being unceremoniously knocked out by Bogdan Guskov in his UFC debut. Junior Tafa looked awful when he dropped down to 205 pounds in a submission loss to Tuco Tokkos. Elekana has all the momentum here and three viable paths to victory. … I think recency bias is impacting the moneyline on Elliott. He was on a roll prior to losing to Seokhyeon Ko by decision. Elliott has more experience at the UFC level than Jonathan Micallef and will have made the necessary adjustments to get back to his winning ways.

Torrez Finney has yet to realize his true potential in MMA. He’s shown flashes of being an absolute monster in the cage. But for every step forward, he seems to take one backwards. I think an upset on scorecards is likely here, but I’m going with a KO/TKO to meet the criteria for a dart throw. Finney does have several KO wins on the regional scene and finished his opponent on DWCS (after failing to secure a contract in his two previous attempts). This is a pivotal bout in Finney’s career and it will be interesting to see if he can seize the moment or grind out another boring decision win. Maybe the new bonuses will inspire him to take more risks.

MIKE'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Cam Rowston -385

Favourite: Jonathan Micallef -130

Underdog: Diego Lopes +120

Dart Throw: Dan Hooker via split/majority decision +2500

Benoit Saint Denis has only gone the distance once in his career but Hooker as gone to a split decision in two of his past three appearances. The co-main could turn into a three-round barnburner and Hooker's chances shouldn’t be written off. He could also get a KO/TKO (+550) but I’m going for a longshot this week.

Lopes found Volk’s chin a couple times in their first fight but couldn’t seal the deal and get a finish. It’s entirely possible the rematch mirrors the first bout in many ways including outcome but the fact the odds aren’t any different than they were at UFC 314 is telling. Lopes is younger and has improved since losing to Volkanovski. Lopes has 25 minutes to hurt the champ and play spoiler. … Unless Cody Brundage grinds out a win over Rowston with wrestling the way Torrez Finney did on the Contender Series a couple years ago I see Rowston having more ways to finish this fight with Brundage.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY

Three legs: Teixeira/Tuivasa doesn’t go distance + Salkilld + Rowston

Parlay odds: -173 (to win: $57.95)

2026 STANDINGS AFTER 1 EVENT

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 

2026 record: 1-0 (W1)

2026 winnings: +$89.12 (on $100 bets)

AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (3-1, +2.36 units)

Cage Lock: 1-0 (+$25)

Favourite: 1-0 (+$48.08)

Underdog: 1-0 (+$190)

Dart throw: 0-1 (-$100)

DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (1-3, -2.87 units)

Cage Lock: 1-0 (+$12.50)

Favourite: 0-1 (-$100)

Underdog: 0-1 (-$100)

Dart throw: 0-1 (-$100)

MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (1-3, -2.65 units)

Cage Lock: 1-0 (+$34.48)

Favourite: 0-1 (-$100)

Underdog: 0-1 (-$100)

Dart throw: 0-1 (-$100)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)