UFC Cage Locks: Action back at the Apex with flyweights front and centre

Mixed martial arts action returns to the UFC Apex for the first time in two months with Saturday’s 12-bout Fight Night card.

The main event pits flyweights Tatsuro Taira and Hyun Sung Park against one another. Taira was originally scheduled to face Amir Albazi who was not given medical clearance and replaced by Park at the beginning of the week.

Also on the card are a pair of lightweight bouts that could compete for the Fight of the Night bonus as Mateusz Rebecki meets Chris Duncan in the co-main event plus Esteban Ribovics takes on Elves Brener.

It wasn’t a clean weigh-in Friday with two fighters missing weight by a wide margin as Rafael Estevam was above the flyweight limit and Tresean Gore missed the middleweight mark. Both fighters will be fined a percentage of their purse, but their matchups will proceed at catchweights.

Below is the projected bout order plus predictions for UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park…

MAIN CARD

-- Tatsuro Taira vs. Hyun Sung Park

-- Mateusz Rebecki vs. Chris Duncan

-- Elves Brener vs. Esteban Ribovics

-- Karol Rosa vs. Nora Cornolle

-- Neil Magny vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

-- Danny Silva vs. Kevin Vallejos

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Rinya Nakamura vs. Nathan Fletcher

-- Rodolfo Vieira vs. Tresean Gore

-- Nick Klein vs. Andrey Pulyaev

-- Austin Bashi vs. John Yannis

-- Rafael Estevam vs. Felipe Bunes

-- Piera Rodriguez vs. Ketlen Souza

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Rosa vs. Cornolle goes the distance -500

Favourite: Karol Rosa -178

Underdog: Neal Magny +165

Dart Throw: Felipe Bunes +400

Every Karol Rosa fight in the UFC has gone to decision, so I am going to follow that trend and while some of those she has been on the wrong end of, I think that she will have an answer for Cornolle and win a decision. … Magny has fought a higher level of competition than dos Santos and with dos Santos’s two most recent losses coming to long and rangy fighters like Chidi Njokuani and Randy Brown, Magny fits that archetype. … Estevam is a tremendous wrestler and is great at controlling his opponents on the ground, but he does tend to slow down and with Bunes being offensive-minded, including off of his back, he will look for submission opportunities and can tire Estevam out down the stretch.

DAN'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Austin Bashi -667

Favourite: Rodolfo Vieira -220

Underdog: Nora Cornolle +145

Dart Throw: Nathan Fletcher by Decision +600

Austin Bashi’s elite wrestling will be on full display. As long as he is able to land some meaningful damage to go along with his control time he should be able to cruise to victory. … Vieira should be able to impose his will on Tresean Gore. Vieira is coming off a loss to Andre Petrovski who was able to deal with and counter the Brazilian’s jiu-jitsu. I don’t think Gore has the same skillset as Petrovski and his takedown defence will be called into question. As long as Vieira doesn’t gas out in search of a submission finish, there are multiple paths to victory here. … Cornolle is a dangerous fighter who is always more than capable of upsetting the odds. Cornolle’s standup game is elite and should be able to nullify Karol Rosa’s kickboxing. I think Cornolle is the better fighter if this goes to the ground and another submission win could be in play here. With Cornolle’s potential to dominate in all aspects here, a win on scorecards is a realistic outcome over an opponent who has struggled as of late. … I have followed Rinya Nakamura’s short UFC career very closely. And while he has shown flashes of brilliance, his overall game needs work. I said he would lose last time out to Muin Gafurov earlier this year in Los Angeles. And I’m doubling down on it. Nathan Fletcher has the ability to exploit the holes in Nakamura’s game and take this one on scorecards.

MIKE'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Kevin Vallejos -400

Favourite: Mateusz Rebecki -200

Underdog: Nathan Fletcher +315

Dart Throw: Taira vs. Park ends in Round 3 +700

Vallejos is one of the best fighters on the UFC roster under the age of 25 and is a fun fighter to watch. … Rebecki and Duncan are pretty evenly matched on paper but Rebecki’s level of competition is what should set him apart in the co-main. … It’s entirely possible Fletcher gets outwrestled and controlled for 15 minutes here but there’s also an argument to be made he’s the more well-rounded fighter overall so these odds feel a bit too wide. … The main event should be fun for however long it lasts so I’ll say it ends midway through the fight after a couple fun rounds.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY

Three legs: Rosa vs. Cornolle goes distance + Bashi + Vallejos

Parlay odds: -138 (to win: $72.49)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 25 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 

2025 record: 14-11 (L1)

2025 winnings: +$230 (on $100 bets)

AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (52-47-1, +16.76 units)

Cage Lock: 20-5 (-$86.37)

Favourite: 11-14 (-$802.79)

Underdog: 14-10-1 (+$1,115.24)

Dart throw: 7-18 (+$1,450)

DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (52-45-3, -4.32 units)

Cage Lock: 21-4 (+$3.22)

Favourite: 14-10-1 (-$321.37)

Underdog: 15-9-1 (+$975.24)

Dart throw: 2-22-1 (-$1,090)

MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (45-51-4, -11.32 units)

Cage Lock: 19-6 (+$12.77)

Favourite: 15-10 (-$10.14)

Underdog: 10-13-2 (+$600)

Dart throw: 1-22-2 (-$1,735)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)