UFC Cage Locks: Mario Bautista, Jailton Almeida among slight favourites

The first Fight Night of the year takes place this weekend when a pair of contenders in the men’s bantamweight division step into the cage for their first UFC main event spot.

Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira will look to cement their place in the top 10 at 135 pounds when they headline the action at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas. Bautista enters the weekend ranked as the No. 9 contender at bantamweight who’s coming off a loss, while Oliveira sits at No. 11 after a 4-0 start to his UFC career.

Four fighters missed weight Friday and two bouts were switched to catchweights, although all 13 bouts will proceed as scheduled.

Bautista and Oliveira both successfully made weight, as did co-main event flyweight competitors Amir Albazi and Kyoji Horiguchi.

Below is the projected bout order plus full predictions:

MAIN CARD

-- Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira

-- Amir Albazi vs. Kyoji Horiguchi

-- Jailton Almeida vs. Rizvan Kuniev

-- Michał Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-Andre Barriault       

-- Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat

-- Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Alex Morono vs. Daniil Donchenko

-- Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Niko Price

-- Bruna Brasil vs. Ketlen Souza

-- Javid Basharat vs. Gianni Vazquez

-- Wang Cong vs. Eduarda Moura

-- Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wiklacz

-- Klaudia Sygula vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Ahead of each UFC event in 2026, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Wang Cong -357

Favourite: Nikolay Verettenikov -280

Underdog: Jakub Wiklacz +120

Dart Throw: Oleksiejczuk wins by decision +500

Cong has a major striking advantage over Moura and should cruise to victory if she keeps the fight standing. … Verettenikov has not blown me away, but Niko Price is at the end of the road and is taking this fight on short notice. … I’m surprised the Wiklacz is the underdog in this spot after his win over Mix and I expect to see him continue to look good in this outing against Gafurov. … Oleksiejczuk by decision is a long shot, but Barriault has been durable and I think this will be a tactical stand up affair.

DAN'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Daniil Donchenko -667

Favourite: Farid Basharat -260

Underdog: Jakub Wiklacz +120

Dart Throw: Marc-Andre Barriault by TKO/KO +650

Donchenko comes into this event with a ton of momentum from his TUF finale victory over Rodrigo Sezinando. His opponent, Alex Morono, has lost three fights in a row and will need to call on all his experience to get his hand raised on Saturday. I just don’t see it happening. … Could be a great day for the Basharat brothers! I really like Farid’s chances of securing a win over Jean Matsumoto. His 14-0-0 record is tough to look past when picking a favourite on this card. Chances are this fight goes this distance and Farid’s superior conditioning likely gives him the edge here. … Jakub Wiklacz looks like he is the real deal. He was very impressive in his debut win over Patchy Mix and looks poised to cause another upset against Marin Gafurov. His opponent hasn’t fought in over a year and Wiklacz looks to be in tremendous shape. This will be a close fight regardless of the outcome. … With the Olympics beginning, maybe I’m being a little biased when I see the Canada flag pop up next to an athlete’s name.  But “Powerbar” always poses a legit knockout threat and is not afraid to eat one to give one. He went the distance with “Shara Bullett” the last time out and prior to that KO’d his opponent in Montreal in under 90 seconds! Michal Oleksiejczuk is unquestionably a crafty fighter who has not been knocked out at Middleweight. I don’t think this matters too much to Barriault who will ask some serious questions when that cage door shuts. He has a puncher’s chance at pulling this off.

MIKE'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Jailton Almeida -160

Favourite: Mario Bautista -143

Underdog: Amir Albazi +295

Dart Throw: Jakub Wiklacz by split/majority decision +900

Maybe I’m way off and missing something here, but I can’t understand why Jailton Almeida isn’t a much bigger favourite here. He has faced better competition, has had better performances at the UFC level and I think there some recency bias with the line considering Almeida’s lacklustre performance in his most recent outing plus the fact Kuniev looked decent against Curtis Blaydes in his UFC debut (remember, though, Blaydes fought through an injury in that bout and still got his hand raised). Perhaps Kuniev shuts Almeida’s grappling down and takes over but I see this as a big bounce back spot for the Brazilian. … Same goes for Bautista in the main event. It’s a better story for the division if Oliveira wins – fresh, new contender etc.. – but I simply think Bautista has the tools to make this the toughest fight of Oliveira’s career. … Wiklacz is absolutely a live dog unless Gafurov is simply too big and powerful, especially after not even coming close to making weight on Friday. … While Kyoji Horiguchi is rightfully favoured to win and it would be also be great seeing him earn a second UFC title shot more than a decade after his first, I also don’t think Amir Albazi should be a three-to-one underdog against basically anyone in the flyweight division.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY

Three legs: Cong + Donchenko + Almeida

Parlay odds: +139 (to win: $139.20)

2026 STANDINGS AFTER 2 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 

2026 record: 1-1 (L1)

2026 winnings: -$10.88 (on $100 bets)

AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (5-3, +2.03 units)

Cage Lock: 1-1 (-$75)

Favourite: 2-0 (+$118.01)

Underdog: 2-0 (+$360)

Dart throw: 0-2 (-$200)

DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (3-5, -4.33 units)

Cage Lock: 2-0 (+$26.49)

Favourite: 1-1 (-$60)

Underdog: 0-2 (-$200)

Dart throw: 0-2 (-$200)

MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (3-5, -3.62 units)

Cage Lock: 2-0 (+$60.45)

Favourite: 1-1 (-$23.08)

Underdog: 0-2 (-$200)

Dart throw: 0-2 (-$200)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)