UFC Cage Locks: Rountree Jr., Hill look to remain in title contention in Baku

UFC action resumes this weekend with a Fight Night card in Baku, Azerbaijan on Saturday.

The event will take place in the afternoon for North American audiences and features a main event between Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree Jr., plus a co-main event between standout lightweights Rafael Fiziev and Ignacio Bahamondes.

All 24 athletes set to compete Saturday successfully made weight at Friday’s weigh-in, though a scheduled lightweight matchup between debuting Azerbaijan native Tofiq Musayev and Myktybek Orolbai was changed to a 165-pound catchweight for undisclosed reasons.

Below is the projected bout order and full predictions for UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.

MAIN CARD

-- Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

-- Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

-- Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev

-- Tofiq Musayev vs. Myktybek Orolbai

-- Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta

-- Muhammad Naimov vs. Bogdan Grad

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Ko Seok-hyun vs. Oban Elliott

-- Ismail Naurdiev vs. Park Jun-yong

-- Melissa Mullins vs. Daria Zheleznyakova

-- Irina Alekseeva vs. Klaudia Sygula

-- Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Azat Maksum

-- Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Mohammed Usman

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree does not go the distance -476

Favourite: Irina Alekseeva -278

Underdog: Mohammed Usman +135

Dart Throw: Grad by decision +600

With the firepower that both Rountree and Hill possess, I would be surprised if this one hits the scorecards. … Alekseeva has advantages over Sygula wherever this fight goes and I expect that she gets the win. … Let's keep the Usman underdog train rolling for a second consecutive week with Kamaru’s younger brother landing the better strikes and stuffing the takedowns of Abdelwahab. … Grad gets hurt in his fights, which worries me early against Naimov, but if his durability holds up as it has in the past, I think that he can outpace Naimov down the stretch.

DAN'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Oban Elliott -500

Favourite:  Melissa Mullins -250

Underdog: Ismail Naurdiev +155

Dart Throw: Nikolas Motta by decision +800

It’s back to basics in Baku after dropping the parlay ball last week. Odds aside, it’s hard not to like Oban Elliott. Not only is the “Welsh Gangster” a master of the cheap pop with his WWE references, but he’s also shown that he’s well-rounded mix martial artist. He takes on a fighter who is making his UFC debut and I expect Elliott-mania to run wild, brother. … Melissa Mullins at -250 is virtually a lock. She has defeated her opponent in the past outside of the UFC and all signs point to a repeat performance in the top MMA promotion. … I don’t see too many bouts on this card with realistic upset potential but I think Ismail Naurdiev is the likeliest candidate. JunYong Park’s last two bouts have both gone the distance with a win and loss during this stretch. A sign that the “Iron Turtle” could be slowing down. Naurdiev has won two in a row and has proven ability to win via strikes or strangle. … If Nikolas Motta can withstand an early onslaught from Nazim Sadykhov it will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Motta is no easy out and while he packs tremendous power, Sadykhov has never been knocked out. I expect Motta to be a little more cagey in his approach on Saturday night and an upset on scorecards could be a realistic path to victory, assuming that both strikers cancel each other out.

MIKE'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Curtis Blaydes -250

Favourite: Myktybek Orolbai -156

Underdog: Jamahal Hill +120

Dart Throw: Rafael Fiziev to win in final minute of Round 1 +3000

Unless his chin is simply gone at this point in his career, which is not entirely unfathomable considering his past losses, Blaydes should make an example of proven drug cheat Rizvan Kuniev. Blaydes can’t underestimate the UFC newcomer but he should be better in basically all areas and has been a top-level heavyweight for years. The difference in strength of schedule is massive. For the good of the sport, we ride with Blaydes! … I locked in this number on Hill before the line began to even out as we get closer to the fight. Rountree could find success with low kicks but I think Hill’s length and hand speed will end up being the difference. … The co-main event should be a barnburner for as long as it lasts, and I see Orolbai getting back in the win column unless he completely throws game plan out the window and decides to brawl.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY

Three legs: Hill vs. Rountree ends inside distance + Elliott + Blaydes

Parlay odds: +103 (to win: $103.29)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 20 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 

2025 record: 11-9 (L1)

2025 winnings: +$280.61 (on $100 bets)

AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (+13.21 units)

Cage Lock: 17-3 (+$73.45)

Favourite: 10-10 (-$452.79)

Underdog: 11-8-1 (+$850.24)

Dart throw: 5-15 (+$850)

DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (-3.10 units)

Cage Lock: 18-2 (+$166.79)

Favourite: 12-7-1 (-$97.73)

Underdog: 13-6-1 (+$960.24)

Dart throw: 1-18-1 (-$1,340)

MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (-16.45 units)

Cage Lock: 14-6 (-$104.25)

Favourite: 12-8 (-$31.16)

Underdog: 7-11-2 (+$290)

Dart throw: 0-18-2 (-$1,800)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)