The UFC is set to make its debut in Qatar on Saturday with a Fight Night event that features several pivotal matchups, a couple of which have potential title implications.
It’s a 14-bout card that begins in the morning for North American fans and it’s headlined by No. 1-ranked lightweight contender Arman Tsarukyan returning to action for the first time in 19 months when he faces Dan Hooker.
Tsarukyan hasn’t fought since a three-round decision win over former 155-pound champion Charles Oliveira at UFC 300 in April of 2024. The 29-year-old Armenian was scheduled to challenge former lightweight champion Islam Makhachev in an anticipated title bout at UFC 311 in January, however Tsarukyan withdrew from the bout on the eve of the event with what he said was a back injury he sustained while cutting weight.
If Tsarukyan can extend his winning streak to five he could be in line to face reigning lightweight titleholder Ilia Topuria, who’ll be in attendance cornering his brother, Aleksandre Topuria, on the preliminary card.
Hooker is also coming off a lengthy layoff. The 35-year-old from New Zealand has won three in a row but his most recent appearance was a three-round split decision win over Mateusz Gamrot 15 months ago. Hooker had been scheduled to face Justin Gaethje in March at UFC 313, however less than two weeks before that matchup Hooker was forced to withdraw due to fractured hand.
The co-main event features former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad facing rising 170-pound contender Ian Machado Garry. The winner will be firmly in the top five in the division and would be in the conversation for who could face Islam Makhachev in the new champ’s first title defence in 2026. Muhammad hasn’t fought since losing his title in May to now-former champion Jack Della Maddalena, while Machado Garry is looking to build off his April win over Carlos Prates.
All 28 fighters scheduled to compete at Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena successfully made weight on Friday morning, including top-10 heavyweight contender Waldo Cortes-Acosta who accepted a short-notice matchup with Shamil Gaziev. There are four undefeated fighters on the prelims, including touted UFC newcomer Luke Riley.
Projected bout order (subject to change) plus full predictions for UFC Qatar below:
MAIN CARD
-- Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker
-- Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry
-- Volkan Oezdemir vs. Alonzo Menifield
-- Jack Hermansson vs. Myktybek Orolbai
-- Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Shamil Gaziev
-- Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Kyoji Horiguchi
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Bogdan Grad vs. Luke Riley
-- Nicolas Dalby vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev
-- Alex Perez vs. Asu Almabayev
-- Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Rafael Cerqueira
-- Bekzat Almakhan vs. Aleksandre Topuria
-- Ismail Naurdiev vs. Ryan Loder
-- Nurullo Aliev vs. Shaqueme Rock
-- Marek Bujlo vs. Denzel Freeman
Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.
AARON'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins inside the distance -800
Favourite: Volkan Oezdemir -235
Underdog: Ryan Loder +110
Dart Throw: Loder by KO/TKO +450
Yakhyaev has been given perhaps the easiest matchup in the division and I expect him to score an early finish. … Oezdemir has only lost to highly ranked opponents and I expect him to have an advantage over Menifield wherever the fight goes. … Loder should be able to find success in the grappling against Naurdiev if he enters the fight with his best winning conditions in mind and if he gets the fight to the ground, I think that he will overwhelm Naurdiev.
DAN'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Arman Tsarukyan -500
Favourite: Asu Almabaev -200
Underdog: Belal Muhammed +225
Dart Throw: Shem Rock wins inside the distance +425
Tsarukyan will compete for a title in 2026 and, with all due respect, Dan Hooker is simply a stepping stone on the trajectory. Tsarukyan is levels above his opponent and should have no trouble closing the distance on his taller opponent. If he avoids getting clipped early, I think Tsarukyan puts on an MMA clinic. … Almabaev is a wrestling cheat code. The code is capable of being broken by top-tier mixed martial artists but I don’t think Alex Perez is in that category. It won’t be pretty, but I think we see another smothering performance from Almabaev. … Anytime you get Belal Muhammed in the underdog role it’s worth having a go. ‘Bully’ was dominating the welterweight division prior to losing in Montreal to Jack Della Maddalena back in March. His opponent, Ian Garry Machado, is equally a cerebral fighter and this one will be decided by the slimmest of margins. These odds on the underdog here are very generous. … I don’t have a ton of faith in Shem Rock’s chances in his UFC debut, but he has a history of finishing opponents inside the distance on the regional scene. Nurullo Aliev is 10-0 in his MMA career with two UFC victories coming by decision. As he tries to send this fight to score cards there could be some openings along the way for Shem Rock to get a finish.
MIKE'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Saygid Izagakhmaev -330
Favourite: Tagir Ulanbekov -200
Underdog: Bogdan Grad +230
Dart Throw: Arman Tsarukyan by submission in Rounds 2-3 +725
Tsarukyan doesn’t have a submission win in the UFC but I expect him to exploit his grappling advantage and potentially look for openings when he has the dominant position. Standing with Hooker is always a dangerous game. … Kyoji Horiguchi winning in his UFC return would be quite the story but Ulanbekov is one of the most difficult outs at flyweight and I expect his wrestling advantage to be the key difference. … Izagakhmaev is a fascinating addition to the welterweight division and he’s being set up for a win against a 41-year-old coming off a bad knockout loss. Nicolas Dalby has had a great career but Izagakhmaev is a former ONE Championship standout who’s a member of Khabib Nurmagomedov’s team and should be able to control where the fight takes place and eventually wear down his more experienced opponent. … Bogdan Grad vs. Luke Riley could end up being an all-action Fight of the Night frontrunner that I feel should be closer than the odds indicate. It’s entirely possible Grad gets chinned by the British newcomer but Grad can absolutely make this a close scrap. A difficult first UFC matchup for the Cage Warriors standout.
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Yakhyaev wins inside the distance + Tsarukyan + Izagakhmaev
Parlay odds: -132 (to win: $ 75.91)
2025 STANDINGS AFTER 39 EVENTS
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
2025 record: 22-17 (L1)
2025 winnings: +$321.12 (on $100 bets)
AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (78-75-3, +17.02 units)
Cage Lock: 30-7-2 (-$68.79)
Favourite: 21-18 (-$633.51)
Underdog: 18-20-1 (+$955.24)
Dart throw: 9-30 (+$1,450)
DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (82-69-5, -6.89 units)
Cage Lock: 34-5 (+$170.76)
Favourite: 25-13-1 (-$185.57)
Underdog: 20-18-1 (+$815.24)
Dart throw: 3-33-3 (-$1,490)
MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (62-88-6, -35.27 units)
Cage Lock: 27-11-1 (-$236.87)
Favourite: 20-19 (-$495.51)
Underdog: 14-23-2 (+$240)
Dart throw: 1-35-3 (-$3,035)
Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.
Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.
Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.
Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.
(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)
