Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
Middleweight action returns to the UFC Apex this weekend with a 185-pound main event in the spotlight for a second consecutive week and third straight event overall.
Headliners Joe Pyfer and Jack Hermansson are both familiar with the venue. Pyfer’s recent track record there has been impressive with three stoppage wins and two consecutive Performance of the Night bonuses. Hermansson, meanwhile, will be looking for his first victory in an Apex-based main event.
Hermansson lost a unanimous five-round decision to Marvin Vettori in 2020 and dropped a 25-minute split decision to Sean Strickland in 2022. The 35-year-old from Sweden has alternated wins and losses for nearly five years and can become the first fighter to fell Pyfer under the UFC banner. But he’ll have to do so as the underdog with the 27-year-old Pyfer finishing his past five opponents and holding the edge in momentum entering Saturday.
Each main event competitor successfully made weight, however not all athletes scheduled to compete could say the same on Friday. Ihor Potieria missed weight by 1.5 pounds ahead of his bout with Robert Bryczek. Potieria was fined 20 per cent of his purse and the fight will remain on the main card.
Accompanying the main event are an intriguing middleweight matchup between Brad Tavares vs. Gregory Rodrigues, plus a featherweight co-main event between Dan Ige and Andre Fili.
Complete fight card and predictions below:
MAIN CARD
-- Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer
-- Dan Ige vs. Andre Fili
-- Robert Bryczek vs. Ihor Potieria
-- Brad Tavares vs. Gregory Rodrigues
-- Michael Johnson vs. Darrius Flowers
-- Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Trevin Giles vs. Carlos Prates
-- Timothy Cuamba vs. Bolaji Oki
-- Loma Lookboonmee vs. Bruna Brasil
-- Devin Clark vs. Marcin Prachnio
-- Max Griffin vs. Jeremiah Wells
-- Zac Pauga vs. Bogdan Guskov
-- Fernie Garcia vs. Hyder Amil
-- Daniel Marcos vs. Aori Qileng
Will this be the week the three-headed parlay finally hits? Each panel member is 2-1 on their individual locks so far this year yet the parlay is now an unfortunate 0-3 after Molly McCann decided to end things early with the first submission win of her career at last week’s event.
CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Lookboonmee vs. Brasil Over 1.5 Rounds -425 (Bovada)
While a finish is not completely out of the question, I expect that this fight more than likely goes the distance and feel like there is actually some value on the Over 1.5 rounds in this bout. Lookboonmee is the heavy favourite and while she scored a finish in her most recent outing, it was her first win inside the distance in nearly five years.
Dan: Hermansson vs. Pyfer doesn’t go to a decision -357 (Betway)
I know this is low hanging fruit... but our three-headed monster parlay has gotten off to a slow start. We need this! No way Hermansson and Pyfer go the distance in a five-rounder. Someone is getting knocked out or will tap out. Should be an amazing spectacle!
Mike: Bryczek vs. Potieria Under 2.5 rounds -700 (Bodog)
All about the low-hanging fruit this week. Under 1.5 rounds for this bout is also a chalky -275 but I want our first parlay to hit so I’m buying an extra five minutes so we can begin chipping away at our deficit. I was tempted to take Bryczek outright as my lock but I can also see a world where Potieria withstands an early barrage and finishes a gassed Bryczek, especially if he struggles at all with first-fight Octagon jitters. I think the judges can use this one as a bathroom break.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -124 (to win $80.72)
2024 Record: 0-3
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$300
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Bolaji Oki -180 (DraftKings)
I am surprised Oki is only a two-to-one favourite here. The Las Vegas native Cuamba fought just last week and is moving up a weight class on short notice to face Oki, who is the superior striker and will have a size advantage. Cuamba is UFC calibre, but I don't like these circumstances for his debut.
Dan: Rodolfo Vieira -115 (Caesars)
I expect Rodolfo Vieira to at least win on scorecards this Saturday. His BJJ blackbelt should give him the edge on the mat as this one goes into deep waters. Petrosyan, a highly skilled kickboxer, has won three of his last four bouts by decision, but it was primarily against guys who relied on striking power. This will be a different type of test and I expect Vieira’s relentless pursuit of a submission to give him the advantage here.
Mike: Robert Bryczek -160 (Bet365)
Bryczek was originally scheduled to make his UFC debut against Jacob Malkoun and Albert Duraev in bouts that never came to fruition. I feel both Duraev and Malkoun are superior fighters to Ihor Potieria who missed weight, is taking this fight on short notice, and is susceptible to being finished. Bryczek is primed for a highlight knockout if he can take advantage of the opportunity.
Aaron’s favourite record: 1-2
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$141.18
Dan’s favourite record: 2-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $20.02
Mike’s favourite record: 2-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $24.47
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Armen Petrosyan +100 (FanDuel)
While Petrosyan is a small underdog, I feel like he should be the favourite in this matchup against Vieira. Petrosyan is fantastic at managing distance and I think that is exactly what he does against Vieira. I expect Petrosyan to frustrate Vieira and pick him apart little by little en route to a late stoppage or decision win.
Dan: Bogdan Guskov +105 (Bodog)
It was a tough start to Guskov’s UFC career as he was thrust into the ruthless LHW division against Volkan Oezdemir. It didn’t end well for Guskov who tapped out to a RNC in Round 1. Prior to joining the UFC, Guskov had been steamrolling the competition. He takes on another relative newcomer in Zac Pauga, the TUF 30 runner-up. Look for Guskov’s greater MMA experience to give him the edge in this one. Quite possibly by KO given that 86 per cent of his wins have come that way.
Mike: Brad Tavares +205 (DraftKings)
There are plenty of dog-or-pass matchups on this card and I see Tavares as boasting some of the best value. Rodrigues is five years younger and has had more success in recent years. The Brazilian is undoubtedly live for a finish yet I see Tavares as a live dog with added value on his knockout prop.
Aaron’s underdog record: 2-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $185
Dan’s underdog record: 0-3
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$300
Mike’s underdog record: 2-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $142
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Petrosyan wins in Round 3 +1200 (FanDuel)
My explanation for this pick can be found in my selection of Petrosyan as my most confident underdog recommendation. If Vieira is unable to get this fight to the ground and find a submission, Petrosyan will frustrate him with his distance management, volume and debilitating leg kicks that will slow Vieira down and allow him to capitalize for a potential late finish.
Dan: Trevin Giles to win by Decision +525 (BetRivers)
The odds makers are favouring Carlos Prates in this one, but Trevin Giles has been in the Octagon with some big names and has held his own. Carlos Prates was impressive in DWCS but is about to take on the toughest challenge of his career. This could be a teachable moment for Prates in the UFC against a more experienced opponent who looks to defy the odds and get back to his winning ways.
Mike: Michael Johnson by submission +1800 (BetRivers)
My almost-namesake doesn’t have a submission win since 2010 and these two are likely to engage in a kickboxing-wrestling style matchup, yet I could see Johnson using his veteran savvy to prolong this bout and if his opponent gets hurt or fatigued, well, Flowers has been submitted five times in his MMA career. I called my shot with that Randy Brown knockout last week and have some wiggle room thanks to early success hitting these dart throws. I’m swinging for the fences on this one.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 0-2-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$200
Dan’s dart throw record: 0-3
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$300
Mike’s dart throw record: 2-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $1,200
(Betting odds as of Friday and subject to change prior to fights)
