Zhang Mingyang is looking for his fourth consecutive win to start his UFC career as he enters his first main event, taking on tough 14-fight UFC veteran Johnny Walker.
That light-heavyweight contest headlines a 12-bout card at Shanghai Indoor Stadium City as the UFC returns to Shanghai for the first time since 2017. It is the eighth event the organization has held in China overall since 2012.
The co-main event between Brian Ortega and Aljamain Sterling was originally scheduled as a five-round matchup in the featherweight division, however, weight issues with Ortega have resulted in the bout being changed to a 153-pound catchweight bout.
Ortega is a two-time title challenger in the 145-pound division who in recent years has said he was planning a move up to the 155-pound lightweight division, while Sterling is a former 135-pound champion who has looked solid since moving up in weight.
Also on the card is a pivotal heavyweight matchup between No. 3-ranked Sergei Pavlovich and No. 6-ranked Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Below is the projected bout order plus predictions for UFC Shanghai:
MAIN CARD
-- Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang
-- Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling
-- Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
-- Su Mudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas
-- Taiyilake Nueraji vs. Kiefer Crosbie
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Maheshate Hayisaer vs. Gauge Young
-- Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Charles Johnson
-- Rongzhu vs. Austin Hubbard
-- Michel Pereira vs. Kyle Daukaus
-- Yi Zha vs. Westin Wilson
-- Xiao Long vs. You Su-young
-- Uran Satybaldiev vs. Diyar Nurgozhay
Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.
AARON'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Walker/Zhang does not start Round 5 -1666
Favourite: Gauge Young -125
Underdog: Brian Ortega +310
Dart Throw: Waldo Cortes-Acosta by decision +450
If Walker and Zhang goes the distance, I will be shocked and the oddsmakers have priced it accordingly. … I believe that the speed of Young will be able to put him in a position to outpoint Maheshate. … Ortega carries massive value. He is the superior striker and his submission skills could offset Sterling’s grappling attack. … Cortes-Acosta has what it takes to frustrate Pavlovich over the course of three rounds like he has his previous opponents.
DAN'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Taiyilake Nueraji -454
Favourite: Uran Satybaldiev -133
Underdog: Waldo Cortes-Acosta +220
Dart Throw: Westin Wilson +725
Some real value on this card with some battle-tested UFC veterans being cast in the underdog role. That being said, I think Taiyilake Nueraji gets it done in his UFC debut. Kiefer Crosbie is 0-2 in the promotion thus far and gives up a sizeable reach and height advantage in this fight. … Uran Satybaldiev also has a significant reach and height advantage. He’s coming off a decision loss vs Martin Buday which displayed his durability. His opponent was submitted by Brendson Ribeiro in his UFC debut and looks like he has more holes in his game than Satybaldiev. … Cortes-Acosta has defied the odds so many times I have lost count. Yes, Pavlovich is a step up in competition but Cortes-Acosta has shown he can adapt his game to exploit his opponents’ weaknesses. I think he finds a way to get his hand raised on Saturday, perhaps unspectacularly. … I am a fan of Topps trading cards. Westin Wilson has been advocating to be on one for some time. I think he pulls out his second straight win on Saturday over Ya Zhi and we finally see that card printed. His opponent was outfoxed by Gabriel Santos the last time out and I expect wily Westin Wilson to follow a similar path to a massive upset.
MIKE'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Rongzhu to win outright -250
Favourite: Aljamain Sterling -250
Underdog: Westin Wilson +725
Dart Throw: Westin Wilson by submission +1400
I think Sterling is underrated at featherweight, especially since he’s coming off a super competitive loss to Movsar Evloev, and the price on the former bantamweight champ has only gotten wider the closer the fight gets with Ortega’s apparent weight issues being a contributing factor. Unless he’s careless on the feet, Sterling gets it done. … To put it lightly, I’ve been a key contributor to our parlay woes this year but I feel really good about Rongzhu who looked fantastic earlier this year against Kody Steele and is set up to win on home soil here against a durable veteran. … I get why Westin Wilson is the underdog but I simply don’t understand why the odds are as wide as they are for this matchup.
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Walker vs. Shange doesn’t see Round 5 + Nueraji + Rongzhu
Parlay odds: -123 (to win: $81.09)
2025 STANDINGS AFTER 28 EVENTS
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
2025 record: 15-13 (L2)
2025 winnings: +$102.49 (on $100 bets)
AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (59-52-1, +22.46 units)
Cage Lock: 23-5 (-$20.79)
Favourite: 13-15 (-$813.28)
Underdog: 15-12-1 (+$1,080.24)
Dart throw: 8-20 (+$2,000)
DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (57-52-3, -8.51 units)
Cage Lock: 23-5 (-$63.61)
Favourite: 16-11-1 (-$327.84)
Underdog: 16-11-1 (+$930.24)
Dart throw: 2-25-1 (-$1,390)
MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (46-62-4, -22.07 units)
Cage Lock: 20-8 (-$162.23)
Favourite: 15-13 (-$310.14)
Underdog: 10-16-2 (+$300)
Dart throw: 1-25-2 (-$2,035)
Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.
Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.
Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.
Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.
(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)
