It has been yet another wild year in mixed martial arts and the final UFC event of 2023 is set to conclude with the welterweight division in the spotlight.
UFC 296 is headlined by current champion Leon Edwards who’ll attempt to defend his belt against Colby Covington, a former interim titleholder looking to also cement his legacy as one of the undisputed champions of his era.
Four of the top-seven ranked welterweights are scheduled to compete on Saturday’s main card at T-Mobile Arena in Nevada, and with an exciting list of contenders eagerly anticipating the outcome and looking to get their own shot in 2024, it’s a fitting time to examine the current state of the welterweight division and its key players as we head into what should be an exciting next 12 months for the weight class.
THE UNDISPUTED CHAMPION
Leon Edwards: The current No. 4-ranked pound-for-pound fighter on the UFC roster spent years biding his time, rounding out his skill set and amassing wins over quality opponents until his breakout 2022 performance when he won the title with an epic head-kick knockout of Kamaru Usman.
Edwards proved that win wasn’t a fluke by defeating Usman again in March. The champ is in his prime at 32 and willing to take on any worthy challenger. He possesses some of the best fight IQ this division has seen since Georges St-Pierre held the title.
TOP CHALLENGER
Colby Covington: The former No. 1 contender and interim champion has been relatively quiet the past couple years. The 35-year-old last fought 21 months ago and hasn’t strung together consecutive wins in more than four years, however the polarizing quote machine can return to the top of the sport with a win at UFC 296. How the remainder of his career unfolds will likely be determined by whether or not he gets his hand raised versus Edwards. Either he’ll enter 2024 a cocky champion and his name will be tied to potential champion vs. champion matchups with Islam Makhachev and/or Sean Strickland whom he has stated he doesn’t like. A loss to Edwards, on the other hand, would end Covington’s run as a viable title challenger and see his star power begin to dwindle.
NEXT IN LINE
Belal Muhammad: The official backup fighter for the UFC 296 main event should by all accounts get the winner of Edwards-Covington, although it’s entirely possible he could get leapfrogged despite the fact he hasn’t lost in 10 consecutive bouts. Like Covington, he is one of the welterweights that effectively weaponizes pace and cardio. He has unfinished business with Edwards after an accidental eye-poke during their March 2021 bout rendered him unable to continue. He doesn’t have the most fan-friendly style of fighting.
COULD FIGHT FOR TITLE IN 2024
Shavkat Rakhmonov: Seventeen wins with 17 finishes. Rakhmonov made his UFC debut less than four months after Khamzat Chimaev made his first Octagon appearance yet the undefeated Kazakhstan fighter never received the same type of media attention as Chimaev. The hardcore MMA fans knew all along, though, that it was only a matter of time before Rakhmonov would work his way into title contention and establish himself as the new top dog. Rakhmonov can out-skill, out-power and out-tough his opponents. He eats horse meat and has unmatched finishing ability. It’s entirely possible he’d be the betting favourite as a challenger in a title fight regardless of who the champ is in 2024.
FUTURE CONTENDERS
Jack Della Maddalena: Slick boxing and solid takedown defence make this Aussie a tough out for anybody at 170. He has won 16 in a row after beginning his MMA career 0-2 in 2016. He’s 6-0 at the UFC level with four post-fight bonuses coming off a short-notice win over Kevin Holland and he only recently turned 27.
Sean Brady: Was humbled by Belal Muhammad at UFC 280 when he suffered his first and only loss in MMA, but bounced back nicely more than a year later with a dominant win over respected veteran and former middleweight contender Kelvin Gastelum. A stocky and strong submission threat, Brady can give anyone fits if he manages to get positional control.
Rinat Fakhretdinov: The Russian had two fights in 2023. The first showed how dangerous he can be both striking and with submissions, making quick work of Kevin Lee, and the second showed his toughness. Although he drew against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in November, Fakhretdinov overcame a liver kick and late flurry that would’ve finished most fighters in this division.
Ian Machado Garry: It’s unfortunate he was removed from UFC 296 due to illness because there’s no denying his speed and skill as a striker. His long frame and footwork help him control distance effectively and makes him a tough style matchup for many of the shorter fighters in the division. The young Irishman is not the sport’s most popular fighter at the moment, but will undoubtedly be in a notable matchup his next time in the cage.
Michael Morales: Among the youngest top-tier UFC prospects, the 24-year-old Brazilian recently improved to 16-0 with a unanimous decision win over Jake Matthews. Morales needs to face a ranked opponent in his next outing to continue gaining traction. He recently told MMAJunkie he doesn’t like Garry and wants to fight him. That would be a great matchup, although the UFC may decide to keep those two undefeated talents away from each other for as long as possible to build up their records.
In addition to the many talented fighters that begin on Dana White’s Contender Series and earn UFC contracts, Gabriel Bonfim, Nurullo Aliev and Canadian Mike Malott are a sampling of different types of rising fighters at 170. Bonfim is coming off his first loss, Aliev is bouncing back from an injury, while Malott is possibly Canada’s top talent at the UFC level right now. Malott is in his 30s but all have bright futures. Malott is 3-0 in the UFC with three finishes and will crack the top 15 rankings with a win over Neil Magny at UFC 297 in front of his home fans in Canada.
DO THEY HAVE ANOTHER TITLE FIGHT IN THEM?
Kamaru Usman: The former champ is still ranked as the No. 1 contender in the division and is the only ranked welterweight besides Edwards currently on the pound-for-pound list. He gave Khamzat Chimaev a tough three-round middleweight fight at UFC 294 despite taking the bout on short notice. His back-to-back losses to Edwards puts him in no-man’s land in the welterweight title picture at the moment, and it’s possible he’ll stay at 185 pounds, however should Covington win the belt it could mean the veteran gets presented a chance to win his title back at some point. He’d need to snap his current three-fight losing skid first. Usman hasn’t won a fight since his second victory over Covington in 2021.
Gilbert Burns: Incredible jiu-jitsu with knockout power on the feet, Burns fell short in his title fight with Usman in 2021 and losses to Chimaev and Muhammad have prevented him from getting back to a championship bout.
Stephen Thompson: We’ve seen in recent years fighters like Glover Teixeira and Stipe Miocic get booked into title fights past the age of 40 and Thompson, turning 41 in February, is one of the only other active candidates with an outside shot of doing something similar. Stylistically, there’s no one like “Wonderboy” and if he overcomes the odds to hand Rakhmonov his first loss it would be enough to make an argument he should fight for the belt in 2024. Thompson went 0-1-1 in his two title fights when Tyron Woodley was champion. Three-round unanimous decision losses to Muhammad and Burns in 2021 keeps him out of the top five right now though.
FAN FAVOURITES & TOUGH OUTS STILL IN THE MIX
Welterweight is among the deepest divisions in MMA and the UFC roster has no shortage of talented veterans that can give top-10 contenders a run for their money or hand a younger fighter their toughest test on any given night.
Geoff Neal, Vicente Luque, Kevin Holland and Rafael dos Anjos are a few of names you simply can’t write off. Nicolas Dalby is another experienced fighter that has put together the best win streak of his UFC career in his late 30s and recently handed Gabriel Bonfim his first loss. Gunnar Nelson, Kelvin Gastelum, Michael Chiesa, Neil Magny, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Randy Brown, who meets Muslim Salikhov at UFC 296, would fall more into the gatekeeper category at this stage of their respective careers but all capable of Performance of the Night-worthy outings.
X-FACTOR
Islam Makhachev: It’s not that there aren’t multiple quality contenders for the lightweight champion to face in 2024, but he already knows what it’s like to taste victory in a superfight – his two wins over featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski are his only lightweight title defences to date – so depending on who the champ is at 170 we could hear more superfight chatter invloving Makhachev.
OUTSIDE THE UFC
There could also be some great non-UFC welterweight matchups next year, especially after PFL bought Bellator. Jason Jackson, who trains with several of the UFC’s best welterweights, became a champion when he handed Yaroslav Amosov his first loss in MMA at Bellator 301 in November. Abdoul Abdouraguimov, Ramazan Kuramagomedov, Logan Storley and Jacobe Smith are all names to keep an eye and you can’t discuss non-UFC welterweights without mentioning multiple Magomeds. Magomed Magomedov, Magomed Magomedkerimov and Magomed Umalatov are promising talents at 170 even though there are questions about overall level of competition faced thus far.
