The eight teams advancing to the WNBA playoffs have been clear for a while, but it took until the final seconds of regular-season action to determine the seeding.
A late-game comeback from the Golden State Valkyries against the Los Angeles Sparks saw them jump the Las Vegas Aces for the second seed and finally complete the playoff picture late Thursday night.
A first round featuring a face-off between the league’s projected top-three MVP finalists, A’ja Wilson, Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell, is complemented by a Lynx-Liberty matchup that will pit rising star Olivia Miles against long-time great Breanna Stewart.
In 2026, competition across the league tightened up after the addition of two expansion franchises but still just eight playoff spots. The top clubs are so closely matched this season that many of the first-round series could be finals calibre.
With top competition lined up early and so much parity across the seeding, we’re asking one burning question of each series:
No. 1 Lynx vs. No. 8 Liberty
Is Olivia Miles good to go?
Rookie powerhouse Olivia Miles sat out of the Minnesota Lynx’s final two games with a left-calf injury. The decision to rest her has been described as precautionary, but with the impact the 2026 second-overall pick has had on this team, Miles must be in top form for their playoff run.
Against all odds, the Lynx have been surprisingly dominant this season. Despite losing four players in free agency and two in the expansion draft, not to mention Napheesa Collier’s late start to the season, the adversity hasn’t phased them. Instead, Miles stepped up. The 23-year-old from TCU averaged 19.8 points and six assists in 31 minutes per game this year. Not only has she become the de facto face of this team, but she’s also the floor general through whom they run the offence.
However, the 33-11 Lynx have started to lose their consistency later in the season. Before the FIBA World Cup break, they lost consecutive games to playoff teams (Golden State and Atlanta), and of their last eight games against playoff teams since August 15, they are 4-4.
On the other side, the New York Liberty, despite a 26-18 record, have proven they can contend with this group. On Sept. 18, the first game back after the break, New York, led by FIBA World Cup MVP Stewart, made noise with a 91-83 victory over the No. 1 seed. The Liberty pulled ahead with 23 points to the Lynx’s 12 in the final eight minutes, proving that even against the toughest opponents, the experienced playoff group knows how to win.
The Liberty haven’t missed the playoffs since 2020, and went home champions in 2024 with a roster very similar to their current one. New York will lean on that experience while the Lynx turn to Miles, who’s yet to lace up in the playoffs. This series will be determined by Miles’ health and whether or not the Liberty can outperform their regular-season selves to become the first team to eliminate a top seed in the first round.
No. 2 Valkyries vs. No. 7 Wings
Will the Valkyries’ defence steal the show?
Paige Bueckers is a big star whose experience in college affirms her ability to win championships, yet the Golden State Valkyries have a bigger asset: defence.
The Valkyries are one of the most unique teams in the league. Headed to the playoffs for the second time in just their second season in the league, this group is built around fighting harder and being stronger than any singular star they might face.
Golden State may not have the league’s top scorers — in fact, their top point-getter is Gabby Williams, who ranks 32nd in the league with an average of 14.4 points per game — but they do have defence. With 74 blocks from Kiah Stokes and the best defensive rating in the league at 99.3, the Valkyries are the hardest group to score against.
The Wings haven’t made the playoffs since 2023, and without Azzi Fudd’s automatic shooting, expect this year’s run to be short-lived.
No. 3 Aces vs. No. 6 Fever
Are the Aces really in control?
The Las Vegas Aces have to be a favourite in 2026. With three championships in the last four years, Wilson is leading a dynasty. But if there’s one team with the talent to stop the invincible Aces, it might be this year’s Indiana Fever.
Mitchell and Clark have mastered the ability to play off one another. These two top scorers combine to contribute an average of 47.0 points per game, and the only player able to match each of their individual outputs is Wilson, who is averaging 26.2.
The Fever must find a way to win a championship now, before the new cap situation gets in the way and threatens their ability to secure top talent. With Mitchell, Aliyah Boston, and Clark eligible to take up about half of the cap space — the new CBA allows max contracts for players coming off rookie-scale deals who have earned All-WNBA honours — as soon as next season, it will just get more difficult for Indiana to keep or build a strong contending group around this trio.
The Fever and Aces are getting used to meeting in the playoffs. Even without Clark last year, the Fever and Aces needed all five games, plus some overtime, to determine a winner in the semifinals. Although the Aces edged ahead in the extra minutes of Game 5 with a 107-98 victory, the addition of Clark in this year’s post-season makes a repeat series win less certain.
No. 4 Dream vs. No. 5 Mystics
Can Alisha Gray and Rhyne Howard stay hot?
The Atlanta Dream haven’t won a playoff round since 2016. Sure, they’ve competed in the post-season four times since then, but advancing has been an issue.
The Washington Mystics are also new to an extended season. After last making the playoffs in 2023, the franchise has undergone a massive rebuild, and now only has one player with recent playoff experience — Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, who they acquired off waivers this year.
With little playoff know-how to lean on, then, Atlanta and Washington will turn to what they know. And for the Dream, that will be exceptional shooting.
On average, the Dream have attempted eight more threes per game than the Mystics, with many of those shots coming from Gray and Howard. Together, they combine for an average of 36.7 points and 4.9 threes made per game. Add in Angel Reese’s 16.5 points, and the Dream offence looks to be in a good spot.
However, the fear is still a repeat of last year’s early playoff exit. In 2025, the Dream gave up a late lead in Game 3 of Round 1 against the Fever because their shots stopped dropping. And, a couple times this season, they’ve fallen into a similar lull. Howard and Gray need to stay hot if the Dream are to advance. If not, the Mystics and their young core of Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen and Shakira Austin will be ready to take advantage.
