WNBA Finals Preview: Underdog Mercury tasked with overthrowing Aces

It’s been four years since the Phoenix Mercury last appeared in a WNBA Finals.

Maybe that doesn’t feel so long ago, but a lot has changed since 2021.

At that time, A’ja Wilson only had one MVP accolade, now she’s got four.

In that span, the Mercury have also parted ways with two of the greatest to ever play the game in Phoenix, Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner. Now, they've had to redesign their orbit without No. 3 and No. 42.

Over the last four years, as the Mercury have been rebuilding, the Aces have been hard at work carving out an impressive run. 2025 marks their fourth trip all the way to the end in six years and could be their third championship in just four years.  

But, if the Mercury have proved one thing through their deep playoff run, it’s that greatness doesn’t necessarily come to the teams who’ve been at it the longest.

To advance to the WNBA’s first-ever seven-game finals series, the Mercury had to plow through both of last year’s contenders: the New York Liberty in the quarterfinals and the Minnesota Lynx in the semis.

The Aces, on the other side, had a path that looked deceivingly easier with just the seventh seed Seattle Storm and sixth seed Indiana Fever in the way. Neither of these underdogs proved painless, however. In both cases, the Aces were forced to play the maximum number of games, and even Game 5 against the Fever pushed into overtime.

So, fair warning, Friday’s matchup (Sportsnet ONE, Sportsnet+, 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT) is not that of a dynasty team against a squad on a lucky streak. It’s actually quite a bit more complicated than that.

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of the WNBA Finals. 

(2) Las Vegas Aces vs. (4) Phoenix Mercury

Season series: Aces won 3-1

Finals schedule

*If necessary

If there’s one thing the WNBA has given us this post-season, it's a lot of questions.

Beside all the on-court action, fans have joined coaches in speculation around officiating accuracy and are pushing to evaluate if some of the recent player injuries could have been prevented. Players have also joined in with questions of their own in a very public examination of league leadership.

Given all the wonderings bouncing around the league, it seems only fair that we recentre the conversation on the final and most important games of the year — at least for now — with some playoff inquisitions of our own.

Here’s a look at three key questions that could define what happens come tip-off.

Does recent championship experience matter?

Before this year, the Mercury hadn’t won a playoff game since their 2021 run. Meanwhile, the Aces have made it to at least the second round of the post-season each of the last four years.

The Aces are accustomed to games that really matter. They have an experienced squad playing the strongest seasons of their career and are led by Becky Hammon, one of the best coaches in the league. There’s a level of trust this team has built over the very successful last few seasons that is difficult to replicate in teams without a wealth of shared experience. Even in tight games against the insanely resilient Fever, the Aces, anchored by Wilson and Jackie Young, held to the game plan that’s landed them at the top year after year

Then there’s the Mercury, a team that looks impossibly different from the squad that suited up last year. After an unprecedented free agency and rookie additions, 10 players received their first-ever Mercury jerseys this year. Only two players from last year’s squad returned.

Led by superstars Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally, the Mercury have established the rhythm and execution of a team you’d expect to have spent many seasons together. Usually rebuilds take a couple solid tries before a team can start winning playoff series, yet in just the second year with head coach Nate Tibbetts, they’ve conquered two rounds.

When it comes to these two teams, it’s hard to determine if past experience will be a secret weapon, but as long as we’re looking at the past, there’s one more interesting stat to consider. The last time these two teams met in the playoffs was in 2021 when the fourth-seeded Mercury beat the first-seeded Aces in the semifinals.

Who’s got the better defence?

An out-of-breath, but obviously determined Wilson stopped for a halftime interview partway through Game 5 on Tuesday. The four-time MVP was asked what would make the biggest impact in the second half.

“Defence,” she replied before turning away quickly to rejoin her team.

What may have seemed like a dry and rushed answer in the moment, turned out to be the simple truth.

The Aces forced the Fever to commit 19 disastrous turnovers over that game, and the Co-Defensive Player of the Year of course had to flaunt her award-winning skills in an elimination game as she tallied four steals and four blocks.

However, great defence doesn’t live in a vacuum in Vegas — the Mercury have also bought into the “defence wins championships” cliché and it’s a big reason why they find themselves opposite the Aces.

In Game 4 against the Lynx, the Mercury relied on big stops to set off huge runs as they recovered multiple 10-point deficits throughout the game. Phoenix had 14 points off turnovers while the Lynx only converted for five. The Mercury have dominated on defence throughout the playoffs, recording a league-best 92.2 defensive rating.

How will the Mercury contain Wilson?

Wilson is a problem that’s impossible to solve. She can pick off passes, swat shots, set up teammates and drain high-impact baskets like nobody else in the league.

The Mercury won’t be able to totally stop her, but they have a good chance at control as they come off three games facing the league’s second greatest threat, Napheesa Collier. And before that, they dealt with two of the other top talents in Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart.

Sabally and Thomas are two of the best when it comes to shutting down plays near the rim, and as we saw when Aliyah Boston stepped up to the Wilson challenge in the last series, meeting the MVP in the paint is a good way to control her impact on the game.

This question also works in reverse, though. The Mercury are a big team and their size is a huge reason why they contested so well against the comparatively smaller Lynx. Looking at the player matchups in the Aces semifinals series, it’s evident the Las Vegas squad struggled to deal with size and shut down Boston at times. In that series, the Aces relied on Megan Gustafson to add more size and strength against Boston on defence but that strategy never produced consistent results. They'll need to find a new tactic to try by Friday.

X-Factors

Jackie Young (Aces)

Young is a momentum swing initiator. Since she was drafted No. 1 in 2019, Young has been an impact player for the Aces, but this post-season she’s really taken off. She’s averaging seven more points per playoff game compared to last year and has taken on a leadership role on the court as she often kickstarts the offence.

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

DeWanna Bonner was a midseason addition to Mercury’s roster, and after an awkward split from the Fever, it was hard to tell how she would slot in. But, as Phoenix has quickly learned, what makes Bonner powerful is her steady presence in times of trouble. After 15 years in the W she’s seen and done it all — including two championships in Phoenix in 2009 and 2014. The 38-year-old might not always be the biggest contributor, but she brings the biggest impact when it matters most. The best example, her 11 fourth quarter points — including three threes — from Game 4 that lifted the Mercury to comeback and clinch their ticket to the final.