Ever since Brett Lawrie debuted with the Toronto Blue Jays, the third baseman has alternately excited and frustrated the fan base. Many view him as a player who has yet to reach his considerable potential.
That may be true, but in at least one department, Lawrie already ranks among baseball’s elite: defence.
“He’s so quick,” manager John Gibbons says. “He has great feet. He’s very athletic. There are some pretty good third basemen out there too, but he’s up there with the best of them.
“He’s got the arm to throw from any angle and off-balance. He’s got tremendous range.”
The industry’s top analytics confirm what Gibbons sees with the naked eye. Lawrie’s glove separates him from his peers at the hot corner.
Lawrie has been the third-best defensive third baseman in the game since 2012, according to data from Baseball Info Solutions, a prominent analytics company that consults for MLB teams. He trails only Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles and Nolan Arenado of the Colorado Rockies,
Player (3B) | Defensive Runs Saved 2012/13 |
Manny Machado | 37 |
Nolan Arenado | 29 |
Brett Lawrie | 26 |
David Wright | 21 |
Luis Cruz | 14 |
Lawrie ranks among the league leaders primarily because of his range, according to Baseball Info Solutions. BIS staff members watch every single play made by every single player to assess their defence and calculate their Defensive Runs Saved. Players obtain credit for strong defensive plays and demerit for poor defensive plays based on the conversion rate of other players at the same position.
Told that he ranks among the top third basemen in baseball, Lawrie explains that he prides himself on his glove.
“I strive to be as good as I possibly can be out there on defence, always trying to make the routine play, just trying to take care of the baseball,” he says.
“It’s cool. I work hard at it. I expect these things out of myself to obviously go out there and have some success and make the routine play, and just try and help my pitchers out as best I can.
“The more guys we can limit on their team from getting on base, the better chance we have to win the ballgame.”
As self-evident as Lawrie’s last observation may seem, his reasoning is flawless: preventing opponents from reaching base boosts any team’s chances of winning.
A player’s Defensive Runs Saved total shapes his wins above replacement (WAR), as calculated by Baseball-Reference.com. Lawrie’s glove saves runs with such frequency that he has generated approximately as much value as Prince Fielder, Carlos Gonzalez and Justin Upton since debuting at the MLB level in 2011, according to WAR.
(It should be noted that Lawrie does not get credit for plays made while shifting into right field against left-handed pull hitters. BIS does not give individuals credit for plays that involve a defensive shift, so Lawrie does not get a boost for his plays in shallow right field.)
As an amateur player and top prospect in the minor league systems of the Milwaukee Brewers and Blue Jays, he was often said to be positionless. Years later, he remembers his critics’ words and draws energy from them.
“Everyone said I didn’t have a position,” Lawrie recalls. “I take pride in my defence and basically showing all of those people that said I don’t have a spot to play that I do.”
The ankle injury that sidelined Lawrie for the month of June has healed, and though his left ankle still doesn’t feel quite the same as his right ankle, “it doesn’t hurt or anything,” and Lawrie can move well enough to provide a near-constant stream of strong defensive plays at third base.
“He’s got those fast-twitch reactions,” Gibbons says. “That helps him on those quick plays. You’ve got to dive, you’ve got to get up and make a play. A lot of guys can’t do that.
“A lot of guys get to those balls — they dive — but they can’t get up and make the throw. He’s got the arm and he’s got the quickness to get off of his feet.”
While Lawrie enjoys watching how third basemen such as Evan Longoria take routes to ground balls, he doesn’t model his glovework after what he sees from other players.
“I just do my own thing out there,” Lawrie says. “I don’t really try and mimic what I do out there from anyone else’s game. My game is my game and I just go out there and do what I do.”
Lawrie has also shown signs of progress at the plate since returning from the ankle injury. It’s tempting to wonder how good he could be if he can improve as a hitter while sustaining his current level of defence.
But just as historical trends suggest it’s fair to expect Lawrie to become an above-average hitter, there’s reason to believe the 23-year-old may never be better on defence.
Analysts including Bill James have shown that defensive value peaks earlier and fades much younger than offensive value for baseball players. So instead of projecting even more from Lawrie on defence, observers might want to sit back and enjoy him for what he is right now — one of the best defensive players in Major League Baseball.
BIS: ASSESSING LAWRIE’S TOP PLAYS
08/09/2013 Diving stop on hard grounder in the hole
08/05/2013 Quick reaction dive
07/24/2013 Stab on a hard-hit ball
05/07/2013 Excellent range toward shortstop
08/21/2013 Ranges deep into the hole
05/08/2013 Ranging play to right
08/17/2013 Hard dive to left
04/20/2013 Diving play on a ball just off the line
04/30/2013 Nice charging play on a slow chopper
Thanks to Ben Jedlovec and Scott Spratt of Baseball Info Solutions.