In the course of a six-month season, every last MLB team deals with injuries and poor performances.
The best teams distinguish themselves by having the depth in place to withstand a DL stint here and a demotion there. The worst teams are ill-equipped to handle those losses, and they end up over-exposing inadequate players.
The Blue Jays are no exception — their ability to withstand injuries will go a long way toward determining their success in 2015. Toronto may well make additions between now and opening day, but as currently constructed the Blue Jays have enviable depth in some areas (catcher, for example) and questionable depth in others (middle infield, bullpen).
Here’s a position-by-position look at the Blue Jays’ areas of strength and vulnerability entering the 2015 season.
Designated Hitter
Projected starter: Edwin Encarnacion
Contingency plan: Dioner Navarro
Risk level: Low
Navarro could DH if Encarnacion is sidelined or if Justin Smoak disappoints at the plate. And there’s no such thing as a backup DH because mixing and matching every day can work out just fine.
First Base
Projected starter: Justin Smoak
Contingency plan: Edwin Encarnacion, Daric Barton, Chris Colabello
Risk level: Low
While many believe Smoak could bounce back in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, Encarnacion could simply return to first base if Smoak struggles. With Barton and Colabello in the fold, Toronto should have further depth at triple-A Buffalo.
Second Base
Projected starter: Maicer Izturis
Contingency plan: Devon Travis, Ryan Goins, Steve Tolleson
Risk level: High
The Blue Jays have lots of options at second base, but not much certainty. If Izturis bounces back or Travis breaks out, then they’ll be fine. Otherwise, second base will be a major area of risk unless the Blue Jays make a late-winter addition.
Third Base
Projected starter: Josh Donaldson
Contingency plan: Danny Valencia, Steve Tolleson, Maicer Izturis
Risk level: Low
The Blue Jays acquired one of the league’s top third basemen in Donaldson. If he gets injured the Blue Jays could rely on a group of players led by Valencia.
Shortstop
Projected starter: Jose Reyes
Contingency plan: Maicer Izturis, Ryan Goins
Risk level: Moderate
Reyes is a fantastic player, but he has been sidelined by hamstring, ankle, thyroid and calf injuries over the years. The Blue Jays need to find ways to give him days off during the season and be prepared in case he requires any DL time. But Goins doesn’t provide offence and while Izturis has hit in the past, it remains to be seen how much defence the 34-year-old can offer after missing the 2014 season with a torn knee ligament. As a result, the Blue Jays have reason for concern here.
Left field
Projected starter: Michael Saunders
Contingency plan: Kevin Pillar, Ezequiel Carrera, Ryan Kalish
Risk level: Moderate
Saunders has shown plenty of promise with the Mariners, and the Blue Jays have a variety of potential fill-ins to choose from should he be sidelined. Still, the decision to non-tender John Mayberry Jr. set Toronto’s most established part-time outfield bat free.
Centre Field
Projected starter: Dalton Pompey
Contingency plan: Kevin Pillar, Ezequiel Carrera
Risk level: High
Pompey has all kinds of promise but only 43 plate appearances at the big league level. The Blue Jays hope he’ll be ready right away. If not, they would turn to Pillar or Carrera, neither one of whom has a career OPS of .650 against MLB pitching.
Right Field
Projected starter: Jose Bautista
Contingency plan: Kevin Pillar, Ezequiel Carrera, Ryan Kalish
Risk level: Moderate
Bautista’s a perennial MVP candidate who ranks among the game’s top players, so as long as he’s out there the Blue Jays are set. The risk is moderate simply because there’s not much certainty beyond Bautista.
Catcher
Projected starter: Russell Martin
Contingency plan: Dioner Navarro, Josh Thole
Risk level: Low
The Blue Jays have real depth at catcher with Navarro capable of playing every day should Martin get injured. Thole offers additional experience, though his bat would get exposed if he played every day.
Starting Rotation
Projected starters: R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison, Aaron Sanchez
Contingency plan: Marco Estrada, Daniel Norris, Liam Hendriks, Andrew Albers, Jeff Francis
Risk level: Moderate
There’s a lot to like about the Blue Jays’ starting five, and Marco Estrada and Daniel Norris give the team seven solid options. That said, teams need approximately 10 starters per season and require about 32 starts from pitchers outside their top five. There’s no doubt that trading away J.A. Happ, Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin ate into Toronto’s depth. As always, health will go a long way toward determining whether the Blue Jays have enough starting depth to get by.
Bullpen
Projected relievers: Brett Cecil, Aaron Loup, Todd Redmond, Marco Estrada, Chad Jenkins, Rob Rasmussen, Steve Delabar
Contingency plan: Aaron Sanchez, Wilton Lopez, Miguel Castro, Gregory Infante, Ryan Tepera, Scott Barnes, Preston Guilmet, Colt Hynes, Cory Burns, Kyle Drabek
Risk level: High
The Blue Jays don’t have much certainty in their bullpen beyond Cecil, Loup and Redmond. That could spell trouble, and if injuries strike they’ll be in an even tougher spot. That’s not to say that a bullpen comprised of so-called sure things will produce — aside from Mariano Rivera there are virtually no certainties in relief. But adding a quality MLB reliever or two would help provide the Blue Jays with an expanded safety net and prevent them from relying on fringy replacement level arms or prospects in need of further seasoning.
Bench
Projected bench: Danny Valencia, Kevin Pillar, Dioner Navarro, Ryan Goins/Steve Tolleson
Contingency plan: Steve Tolleson, Josh Thole, Daric Barton, Chris Colabello, Ezequiel Carrera, Ryan Kalish, Jonathan Diaz
Risk level: High
Blue Jays bench players picked up 1,842 plate appearances in 2014 — nearly one third of the team’s total. Building and sustaining a quality bench goes a long way toward keeping a team’s offence productive to say nothing of defence.
