TORONTO – Either way, Dexter Fowler’s decision was going to be a game changer for the Toronto Blue Jays. Now that he’s made his choice and agreed to a five-year deal with the St. Louis Cardinals, the Blue Jays must adjust, possibly toward an off-season strategy less reliant on splashy acquisitions.
First of all, though, it’s worth acknowledging that missing out on Fowler hurts. Setting aside the $82.5 million price tag, he’s a really talented player who would have made the Blue Jays a stronger team in 2017. There aren’t many players who would have fit their needs better.
Star players remain available in free agency, starting with some longtime Blue Jays. Still, it’d be a major surprise if either Edwin Encarnacion or Jose Bautista returns to Toronto, even though both remain in contact with GM Ross Atkins. In fact, with Fowler off the table, the Blue Jays could choose to avoid all free agents linked to draft pick compensation and pick three times early in the 2017 draft.
The trade market features players such as Andrew McCutchen, a superstar calibre outfielder with two remaining years of team control. But the Pirates would likely want the kind of high-end pieces that the White Sox obtained for Adam Eaton and as much as the Blue Jays’ farm system has improved of late, much of that talent remains at the lower levels of the minors. Chances are, you’re not getting an elite player in a bulk prospect deal (presumably a reason the Blue Jays weren’t viewed as serious players for Eaton, either).
For a Blue Jays fan base that once welcomed Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki and David Price to Toronto in the span of a year, the idea of a mix-and-match off-season would understandably be underwhelming. Signing Steve Pearce just doesn’t compare, especially at a time that Dave Dombrowski’s Red Sox continue adding stars like Chris Sale.
Still, seemingly modest moves paid off for the Blue Jays last off-season, when they signed J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada instead of pursuing Price. Perhaps the best example of a successful mix-and-match off-season occurred before the 2013 season, when the Red Sox added Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes and David Ross in a series of deals that set up a World Series title while preserving prospect depth.
Worth noting: three members of the Blue Jays’ current front office were in Boston that year: Ben Cherington, who was then the GM, plus Mike Murov and Steve Sanders. That’s not to say that the Blue Jays will necessarily borrow that off-season template, only that it’s surely on the radar of the Toronto front office.
Of course a mix-and-match off-season comes with risk of its own. To cite just one example, the Mariners tried a similar approach last year, but even after all of the moves Jerry Dipoto made, Seattle missed the playoffs by three games.
That’s what makes the rest of the Blue Jays’ off-season work so fascinating, and make no mistake, they have tons of it remaining (one or two outfielders, left-handed relief, right-handed relief, backup catcher, starting pitching depth).
As star players continue coming off the board, the Blue Jays may well decide to spread out their money, spending piece by piece instead of all at once. That strategy’s not inherently problematic, nor would it assure the Blue Jays of another playoff berth.
It would just be a different tactic, one that hinges on identifying and landing the right players. Instead of making one big gamble that has to work out, the Blue Jays could now make a series of bets, some riskier than others, in the hopes that enough of them pay dividends.
