Making sense of Jays’ big spring performances

Toronto Blue Jays' Devon Travis, left, slides in under Tampa Bay Rays catcher Bobby Wilson, right, to score in an exhibition baseball game. (Kathy Willens/AP)

It’s always been hard to know what to make of spring statistics. Numbers that come from such small samples tend to be untrustworthy, especially against potentially weak competition.

On the other hand, players sometimes demonstrate tangible improvements that will remain present in the season to come.

Last month Dan Rosenheck at The Economist released research indicating that the prophetic value of Spring Training numbers may have gone under-appreciated in the past. Spring stats can be quite useful, especially peripheral numbers like strikeout rates.

That doesn’t mean it’s easy to tell the difference between the meaningful spring performances and the red herrings. Every year a player at Blue Jays camp, like Devon Travis or Miguel Castro, impresses observers with a productive spring. How often does the magic carry over into the regular season?

A look at the Jays’ top Grapefruit League performers over the last five years shows the team has gotten very mixed results from its spring stars.

2010: Jose Bautista

Spring Stats (57 At-Bats): 5 HR, 11 RBI, .439/.448/.895, 1.343 OPS

Regular Season Stats: 54 HR, 124 RBI, .260/.378/.617, .995 OPS, 6.5 wins above replacement

In hindsight there may have been signs that Bautista’s 2010 breakout was coming.

The slugger hit 10 home runs in September of the previous season and went on to destroy the ball in Spring Training, showing potency with the bat he had never demonstrated before.

Time Period At-Bats HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS
September 2009 109 10 21 .257 .339 .606 .945
Spring Training 2010 57 5 11 .439 .448 .895 1.343
Total 166 15 32 .319 .372 .709 1.081

That being said, with late season stats being notorious fickle predictors of future performance, and spring training numbers often being disregarded altogether, it was easier see Bautista’s hot streak as a fluke than as a historically unprecedented breakthrough.

2011: Rajai Davis

Spring Stats (63 At-Bats): 4 HR, 8 RBI, .333/.386/.714, 1.100 OPS

Regular Season Stats: 1 HR, 44 RBI, .238/.273/.350, .623 OPS, -0.5 wins above replacement

Davis not only impressed during Grapefruit League action in 2011, he also appeared to add another dimension to his game .

Coming off Bautista’s power surge and the Blue Jays’ league-leading 257 home runs in 2010, it seemed plausible that the team could unlock virtually anyone’s latent power.

Unfortunately for the Jays, the outfielder’s slugging display was a mirage and he would hit only one home run in the upcoming season on his way to an OPS+ of 67.

2012: Eric Thames

Spring Stats (64 At-Bats): 2 HR, 13 RBI, .359/.408/.578, .986 OPS

Regular Season Stats: 9 HR, 27 RBI, .232/.273/.399, .672 OPS, -0.6 wins above replacement

The combination of elaborate facial hair and a solid 2011 debut already established Thames as a fan favourite heading into 2012. A strong Spring Training effort then won him the Blue Jays’ starting left field job over Travis Snider.

However, Thames proved unable to carry the momentum from his hot spring into the regular season. The outfielder struggled at the plate and was ultimately traded to the Seattle Mariners for Steve Delabar.

He hasn’t appeared in the major leagues since the 2012 season, although he was an MVP candidate in the Korean Baseball Association last year.

2013: J.P. Arencibia

Spring Stats (41 At-Bats): 5 HR, 13 RBI, .438/.477/.902, 1.380 OPS

Regular Season Stats: 21 HR, 55 RBI, .194/.227/.365, .592 OPS, -0.6 wins above replacement

Arencibia’s otherworldly spring had little predictive power. The catcher’s problems began on Opening Day with R.A. Dickey’s knuckleballs and continued throughout the year.

The root of his problem was an inability to get on base that nullified the positive contribution of his prodigious power.

Ultimately the former first-round pick was non-tendered by the Blue Jays the following offseason.

2014: Melky Cabrera

Spring Stats (74 At-Bats): 1 HR, 13 RBI, .405/.423/.595, 1.018 OPS

Regular Season Stats: 16 HR, 73 RBI, .301/.351/.458, .808 OPS, 2.6 wins above replacement

After a spinal injury completely derailed Cabrera’s 2013 season he came back last year trying to prove he was healthy enough to be an effective starter.

He showed off a scorching bat and vastly improved movement in the spring and went on to be a consistent presence at the top of the Blue Jays order in 2014.

He then leveraged his excellent season into a handsome three-year $42 million with the Chicago White Sox in free agency.

Examining a group of five players is not enough to make any broad generalizations about the Blue Jays can expect from their top spring performers this season. What it does is show the vast potential range of outcomes for the team’s Grapefruit League standouts.

In the aggregate spring stats are valuable for projecting performance, but at the end of the day anything can happen with individual players.

The Blue Jays know that as well as anyone.

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