TORONTO – Last year, only 15 big-league pitchers reached the 200-inning plateau that is the hallmark of an elite starter, six of them exceeding the 220 mark led by David Price’s 230 frames. With less than two weeks remaining this season, only Boston Red Sox ace Chris Sale is already past the increasingly elusive barrier, and while 16 others are in range to join him, it’s possible, likely even, that no one gets past 220.
Workloads that big may very well become rarer and rarer in seasons to come, too, as teams continue to seek ways to maximize the performance of their starters, and relievers are employed earlier in games to greater effect. As a result, the few pitchers who manage to get to 200 will not only need the physical capability to handle the burden, but also the ability to maintain their stuff at a level above and beyond the one-inning velocity monsters stocking bullpens across the game.
All of which makes the 191.1 innings Marcus Stroman has logged this season after his seven frames of one-run ball in Tuesday’s 5-2 victory over the Kansas City Royals such an achievement. He has two starts remaining to break the 200-inning mark for the second season in a row, and become just the seventh Toronto Blue Jays hurler to accomplish the feat in consecutive years since 1997.
Roger Clemens, David Wells, Roy Halladay (who did it in 2002-03 and then again 2007-09), Ricky Romero, Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey were the others.
"The arrow bars around 200 are decreasing," said Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins. "You see less complete games. You see guys, recently the Boston Red Sox with Chris Sale, they skipped him a start. Those types of decisions are occurring more often than they used to, I think, and will decrease that number overall."
Certainly evidence pointing to pitchers generally being less effective during their third time through the batting order is a factor. This season, the average OPS against in the majors off starting pitchers the first time through the lineup is .734, rising to .780 the second time through and .800 the third time.
For Stroman, the numbers split .639/.748/.743 the first three times through a lineup and on Tuesday the damage against him came during the seventh, when Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez singled to open the inning and a Mike Moustakas liner to centre allowed Hosmer to tag and score, cutting the Blue Jays lead to 2-1.
Still, he kept things in check from there, inducing weak grounders from Brandon Moss and Alcides Escobar. He’s pitched seven innings or more 11 times in 31 starts, including two complete games.
"It’s definitely getting harder and harder (to throw 200 innings) because of all the statistical data that they have now," said Stroman. "It’s statistically proven that starters shouldn’t face a team three times through, their stuff gets worse and as the games progress, I guess, you lose the quality of your pitches. You’re more apt to go to the bullpen with the bullpen arms they have coming out nowadays, everyone is throwing 95-plus. That’s just the way the game’s going."
Given who he is, manager John Gibbons gave Stroman an opportunity to finish out the inning, even though Dominic Leone was warmed and ready.
But with the bullpen rested after an off-day, another pitcher might not have received the same leeway. At the first sign of trouble, managers are often tempted by the array of dart-throwers at their disposal.
"Guys are going to go to the bullpen in the fifth or the sixth to get out of a jam and not necessarily use their starters, whereas back in the day, it was pretty much throw your starters out there as long as they can go," said Stroman. "That’s the kind of mentality I have, but it’s going to be harder and harder to do year by year to get to that 200 plateau just because of the way the game is going."
Added Darwin Barney, who opened the scoring with a two-run homer in the sixth and added an RBI single in the seventh: "It usually doesn’t matter who’s on the mound. There are guys like Sale and maybe Stro that you don’t want to see a third time, but for the most part as a hitter, if you’ve seen a guy two times, it doesn’t really matter who they are, you’d rather face them. Numbers show that, managers know that and they’re utilizing their bullpens."
At the same time, teams are also more conscious of controlling the workload of their starters, especially if they have playoff aspirations.
A starter on a team that goes to the World Series can tack on another 30-50 innings to his season total, and it’s obviously better to have him fresh than on fumes.
"More and more, a lot of teams have relievers that for one inning are as good or better than any starter they can put out there. That wasn’t the case 50 years ago," said Atkins. "But I think durability is certainly a factor."
Stroman is certainly proving himself durable in an age when it’s more and more difficult to do so.
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