The idea that Marcus Stroman is the Toronto Blue Jays‘ best starter used to be a farfetched notion.
After all, it was only 37 days ago that Stroman returned from an ACL tear to make his first appearance of the season. He also has only 26 major-league starts under his belt, and shares a rotation with David Price. None of these facts have changed, but the context surrounding them has.
Concerns about Stroman’s injury have subsided as he’s looked strong pitching deep into games and making athletic plays fielding his position. The right-hander’s relative inexperience is no longer a worry considering he’s made two quality starts in the post-season already — one of which came in the most important game the Blue Jays have played since the Kim Campbell administration. Even the comparisons to Price seem less daunting in light of the ace southpaw’s struggles.
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Right now, as the Blue Jays are in desperate need of a victory, Stroman is their best option. The 24-year-old’s mental and physical toughness invites hyperbole and there’s no doubting his stuff at this point. Perhaps the trait that differentiates him the most is his unpredictability, and it’s this characteristic that makes him a post-season weapon.
As long-suffering Blue Jays fans are seeing, October baseball is just a little bit different than the regular season version. That’s an inelegant and incomplete description, but it’s apt in that the differences between the two are largely ineffable. In theory the rules, teams, and ballparks remain the same, but the heightened emotional stakes give birth to a whole new animal.
It’s difficult, if not impossible, to predict how players respond to this environment. Most assumptions about players reacting to the pressure are conjecture that often results in damning extrapolations based on limited evidence. In short, making judgments on players’ ability to handle the intangible aspects of the playoffs is a dangerous game.
However, there are some structural differences to post-season baseball that affect some players more than others. For one, there are more off-days than usual. This means that better pitchers can be used more often than they would in the regular season. As a result, hitters have a harder time.
One of the most under-discussed differences is the increased familiarity between teams. During the regular season a team will never play more than four consecutive games against another team barring a bizarre rainout scenario. In the post-season they can play up to seven in a row. This is where Stroman’s advantage comes into play.
Familiarity is the enemy of all pitchers. They perform worse the more pitches they get into an at-bat and the more times they go through a batting order. Every pitch a batter sees gives them information that helps them get comfortable.
When facing Stroman however, it’s harder to settle in. Hitters know they will see their fair share of two-seamers, but beyond that the way he mixes his six-pitch arsenal is radically different from start to start. The chart below shows how he’s used his offspeed pitches from start-to-start since his return in September.
His slider usage began to spike as the as he made his return leading some to speculate that he was changing his plan of attack to use it as his primary breaking ball. That was a logical assumption as pitchers rarely make significant changes to their pitch mix without some kind of intentional change in approach.
That theory was thrown to the curb when Stroman came out in Game 2 of the ALDS and leaned on his curveball again as a strikeout pitch against both left-handed hitters like Josh Hamilton …
… and right-handers like Hanser Alberto.
Then in Game 5 he threw twice as many change-ups and featured the slider over the curve again. His primary strikeout pitch that start? The two-seamer. Trying to find a pattern here is downright impossible as the right-hander’s pitch usage charts have a Jackson Pollack feel.
In his career so far Stroman has faced the same team in consecutive starts three times. The sample there is admittedly very small. However, it’s interesting that in his second starts against those teams he’s been utterly dominant. Here’s what his numbers look like in those games:
| IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 1.71 |
While it’s not wise to draw strong conclusions from 21 innings of work, these statistics do support the idea that Stroman is a hard guy to adjust to — which makes sense considering his complex arsenal. It’s an impressive and important quality and it could come in handy in the ALCS if he can get two starts in against the Kansas City Royals.
For that to happen the Blue Jays will need to go deep in the series, something Stroman can help ensure on Monday. If he fails to do so the Royals will kill two birds with one stone. Not only will they take a stranglehold in the series, but they make it far less likely they ever have to deal with him again.
They definitely don’t want to see him twice.
