When you step back and think about it for a moment, a one-game winner-take-all wild card game seems in stark contrast to what baseball is about.
After a gruelling 162-game schedule that attempts to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt which teams are worthiest of a post-season berth, it seems odd for a single game to mean so much. It’s an 100-metre dash at the end of a marathon.
However, the new wild card system put in place in 2012 has undoubtedly provided some memorable games, and last year’s battle of wild-card teams in the World Series showed it’s not an event for also-rans.
Above all, it’s been must-see TV, and the American League Wild Card game between the New York Yankees and Houston Astros looks to be no exception. Here a few things to watch on Tuesday night:
Tuesday, Oct. 8 – 8:08 p.m. ET
Dallas Keuchel (20-8, 2.48) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (12-7, 3.51)
There is no hot team: Last season, the Kansas City Royals rode a red-hot second half into the second wild-card slot before ousting the Oakland Athletics. This year there will be no such narrative.
Since the All-Star Break, the Astros are 37-35 and the Yankees have posted a 39-35 record. Both teams played their best baseball earlier in the year and both were under .500 in September. That doesn’t mean these squads won’t perform well with their seasons on the line, it just means that momentum isn’t really a factor here.
Keuchel might not be “Keuchel-esque”: There is no doubt the pitching matchup in this game favours the Astros on paper, but there are a couple of factors inhibiting their ace’s ability to pitch like an ace in this one.
For one, he will be going on three days rest. While Madison Bumgarner’s Game 7 heroics last year remind us that throwing on short rest is no guarantee of disaster, history tells us even the best pitchers perform significantly worse when they have less time between starts.
Additionally, Keuchel won’t be pitching at home where he has been exceptional this year. Normally it’s not advisable to read too much into home/road splits. As a rule, cutting data in half isn’t the best way to make it more reliable.
With Keuchel, however, the difference between his home and road numbers is profound. At Minute Maid Park he has an ERA of 1.46 backed by a 2.04 FIP and 4.96 K/BB ratio. On the road, his ERA balloons to 3.77 and his 4.01 FIP and 3.35 K/BB ratio show he’s pitching demonstrably worse.
While it’s hard to assign predictive value to those numbers, especially for a single game, it is safe to say Keuchel’s a better bet at home.
Tanaka could have home run issues again: The biggest difference between Tanaka this season and last has been his propensity to give up the long ball in 2015. Among 89 starters who’ve pitched 150 or more innings this year, the right hander’s 1.46 HR/9 ranks 81st.
That issue is compounded at Yankee Stadium, which has been the setting for 17 of the 23 round trippers he’s surrendered. Add in the fact the Astros’ 230 home runs rank second in the major leagues and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see an angry Yankees fan or two throwing balls back from the seats early in the wild-card showdown.
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Colby Rasmus may be crucial : Rasmus has never had an issue with talent, only consistency. When he’s locked in at the plate he can carry a team offensively for short spurts.
Rasmus is hitting .289/.385/.614 since the start of September, he’s playing at a left-handed power hitter’s paradise, and he’s facing a pitcher struggling to keep the ball in the park. The stars could not have aligned better for the 29-year-old to play a big role Tuesday night.
That being said, attempting to project how Rasmus might produce in any given season has proven a fool’s errand. Trying to predict what he might do in one game is downright impossible.
The Yankees’ bullpen looks less invincible by the day: In theory, the best asset a team can have in a wild card game is a strong relief core. In fact, there is a strong argument to be made that the best strategy for such a single-elimination contest is to use relievers almost exclusively — even at the beginning of the game.
While no one is breaking from the traditional starter-then-reliever structure for these games yet, expect both managers to have a quick trigger finger when it comes making a call to the bullpen. With the three-headed monster of Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances and Justin Miller, having the game decided by relievers should benefit the Yankees.
However, while the Yankees have enjoyed a lights-out bullpen for the vast majority of the year, their relievers have been less successful recently. Since Sept. 1, New York’s bullpen has posted a 5.15 ERA, 4.95 FIP and has walked close to five batters per nine innings. Betances in particular has struggled with his control, so he’ll be one to watch as he’s a virtual lock to pitch.
The Yankees have a reputation for being unbeatable if they get a late lead, but that has been less true recently. It’s possible they could open the door for some late dramatics from the Astros.
