Who’s punching their ticket to Super Bowl LII?
That’s the question on everyone’s mind heading into Championship Sunday. These two conference title games have a lot to unpack and examine before we can come to a decision.
Let’s take a closer look at each matchup.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (12-6) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (14-3)
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET
Why the Jaguars will win
The obvious reason you might want to suggest the Jaguars can pull this off is they aren’t much bigger underdogs than they were last week headed to play a rested Pittsburgh Steelers team.
But the warning signs were there with Pittsburgh down the stretch about playing down to the level of their competition, not paying attention to detail and becoming wildly unfocused and undisciplined at the least-opportune times.
Regardless, the Jags remain the only AFC team that can take down the Patriots, and they have to do it by winning the turnover battle and harassing Tom Brady to the point of utter frustration.
In New England’s last playoff loss in the 2016 AFC Championship, Brady was sacked four times by that fantastic Denver defensive front, hurried a ton more, and taken down to the grass even on a slew of screen-pass completions. If his throwing hand is at all bothersome to him, and it likely isn’t, the Jaguars need to be swatting at that passing arm whenever possible.
Additionally, the Jags will simply have to have success utilizing star cornerback Jalen Ramsey in coverage on Rob Gronkowski, there’s no way around it. It’s a size mismatch, to be sure, but if Ramsey can swat balls away and harass Gronk into frustration enough to lose his cool with a lack of pass interference and defensive holding calls, he’s halfway to winning the battle.
On offence, Jacksonville needs the same type of Leonard Fournette it had last week against Pittsburgh. He’s at the end of a long and physical rookie season, no doubt, and that injury against the Steelers in the second quarter didn’t look promising, but he returned to provide a 109-yard game with three touchdowns.
Having carried the ball 66 times in the past three weekends, Fournette is a weary horse, no doubt, but he can’t run out of gas. Not yet anyway.
As for Blake Bortles, look, he is what he truly is. He’s no game-breaker but he has protected the football in both playoff games, and needs to do the same again.
Jacksonville has won 10 of their 12 games this season, in part, because Bortles hasn’t thrown a pick in any of those 10 victories. On the flip side, the Jaguars are 2-6 when he does throw an interception. We can’t possibly expect him to be as consistent as he was against a flat Pittsburgh team to start last week’s game, but he probably isn’t going to look woefully out of place at the position itself, as he did against Buffalo to kick off the playoffs.
It’s fairly simple, the Jags need to play as mistake-free as they can, and hope New England is simply off the mark in everything it attempts to do. The Patriots have left little to chance in Foxboro home playoff games the last several seasons, winning their past seven at home, by an average of 18.3 points. The Jags have to disrupt and cause some chaos to have a shot.
Why the Patriots will win
‘The Patriots are the Patriots and Jacksonville is Jacksonville,’ is the easy answer.
The bottom line here is that the Patriots have already fought through their adverse moments as they always seem to in late September and early October and, unlike last season, they have a very healthy Rob Gronkowski.
The Patrots just don’t slip in opportunities such as this, and though they have now visited the AFC title game for a seventh straight season, only Peyton Manning three times, and Joe Flacco once have beaten Brady in these games.
And if it even matters, New England has more rest and far less travel recently than the Jags.
What a bonus getting to play at home against the Titans last Saturday night, making the contest a no-doubter by halftime, after trailing 7-0 at the end of the first quarter, while Jacksonville played into the late afternoon on Sunday, and now will be playing their fourth game in five weeks, and their third in unfamiliarly cold weather to their players.
The Verdict
No matter how high on Jacksonville we are it’s just tough to see this matchup as beneficial to the Jags, despite the skill of their defensive line and their corners.
The bettors are telling you they aren’t at all sure about a Patriots blowout, but it just feels like this will be a comfortable win.
With that sad, should Jacksonville even keep this game tight, the legend of Tom Coughlin against Bill Belichick will continue to grow. The Jaguars are built somewhat to compete with New England and if they can overwhelmingly use their four-man pass rush, there’s an opportunity to be down single digits going into the fourth quarter — but that’s the hope, as opposed to the reality.
Final Score
Patriots 31, Jaguars 16
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (14-3) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (14-3)
Sunday, 6:25 p.m. ET
Why the Vikings will win:
There’s no momentum that’s carrying over from their miraculous final play against the Saints in front of their insane crowd in Minneapolis, but it’s not unfair to suggest the Vikings will enter Philadelphia feeling rather invigorated and amazing to still be alive in this tournament, especially with a home Super Bowl looming.
There’s obviously far more continuity with Minnesota’s less-than-ideal quarterback scenario than Philadelphia’s. Case Keenum has had 14 starts, but his second-half mistakes and freezing in the moment would have been a huge talking point had New Orleans hung on last week in those final seconds. For Keenum, he gets a new life also, and don’t wager on him ever being this close to starting in a Super Bowl again.
The Vikings obviously have a player coming into this game with a world of confidence after the final miraculous play, and that’s wideout Stefon Diggs. He’ll play Sunday with a distinct swagger, and he was already having a very good game before the final touchdown, catching five balls for 76 yards.
And then there’s the Vikings defence, which isn’t based on one or two stars, but simply excellent, featuring accomplished individuals at each position. Minnesota is 12-1 in its past 13 games, and have given up more than 23 points just twice since October.
Overall, the Vikings a very together group, and have a great shot at being dominant in the NFC North for more than a few seasons if Keenum can even give them league-average quarterback play.
Why the Eagles will win
There’s an argument to be made that Nick Foles started outplaying Matt Ryan late in the third quarter and early in the fourth quarter of last week’s divisional game, so expect him to start Sunday’s game even more consistent than the moments he had in that second half.
No turnovers for Foles, and he protected the ball brilliantly in that game. After a couple late first-half throws sailed past receivers, vertically and horizontally, Foles got more precise, and efficient.
What makes life easier for Foles is the game plan Eagles head coach Doug Pederson will draw up. He helped Foles get out of the pocket on some throws, and Philly has made screens as opposed to deep passes far more as part of their offensive thrust with Foles, as opposed to Carson Wentz.
The running backs? Yes to that, and they’ll be better than they were last week — barring Jay Ajayi doesn’t fumble to essentially essentially take at least a field goal off the board for the Eagles on their initial drive.
Philly didn’t hesitate to run the ball more than throw and did that by a 32-30 ratio, and that shows not a lack of confidence in Foles, but more of a reliance on Ajayi, Nelson Agholor, or LeGarrette Blount.
Philly also is fantastic in that defensive trench, and it’s asking a ton for Fletcher Cox to be as good as he was last week stuffing Devonta Freeman (10 carries, seven yards) against Minnesota’s running backs. But outside of Aaron Donald of the Rams, Cox is as elite as anyone in the sport at sniffing out rushing plays and ending them quickly and painfully.
The Verdict
Underdogs again, but how can you count out the Eagles.
Pitching a shutout in the second half against Atlanta was beyond impressive, and it hasn’t been talked about enough. It’ll be a rabid environment, and though we can certainly over-sell the motivation factor given the Eagles are home underdogs for a second weekend in a row, it may be that added spark of lighter fluid to ignite their players.
Foles will play well enough to win, and Minnesota will have a tougher time recovering from a flat start after last weekend’s miracle.
Final Score
Eagles 23, Vikings 21
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