The American Hockey League’s Calder Cup playoffs are five days in and you can already throw away the script.
Some first-round series have gone as expected with the overwhelmingly favoured Toronto Marlies cruising to two road wins in Connecticut in their matchup with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers. The Lake Erie Monsters finished off a sweep of the Rockford IceHogs before the post-season was four days old.
But elsewhere?
The Providence Bruins are out, the Ontario Reign have a fight on their hands and the Milwaukee Admirals are on the ropes.
Let’s look at the series:
Bruins breakdown
Providence appeared a big threat to the Marlies as any team in the Eastern Conference when the playoffs began. With the Boston Bruins failing to reach the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the second consecutive season, it allowed Providence to stock up and fill out a deep roster.
Rookie Frank Vatrano brought his 36 goals in 36 AHL regular season games with him from Boston, accompanied by NHL veteran Max Talbot, steady forward Noel Acciari and defenceman Colin Miller, who won a Calder Cup last season.
That foursome joined a trio of players who finished in the top-seven in AHL scoring including playmaker Seth Griffith (second and with a league-leading 57 assists), Alexander Khokhlachev (tied for third) and seventh-place rookie Austin Czarnik, who is expected to contend for a full-time job with Boston this fall.
Providence finished the regular season with five consecutive wins, including a closing weekend in which they handled Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on the road and dismantled Bridgeport 6-1 in their season finale. Providence recovered from a slow start to put up the AHL’s best record after New Year’s Day.
Meanwhile, decimated by NHL recalls and injuries, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton had stumbled to a third-place finish in the Atlantic Division. Star prospect Matt Murray is leading the Pittsburgh Penguins in net rather than Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, rookie goaltender Triston Jarry didn’t arrive until the morning of Game 1 and rookie Casey DeSmith (six career AHL games) found himself in net.
It all fell apart on the Bruins quickly. They dropped their first two games in overtime on the road before a Game 3 rally at home fell short in double overtime. DeSmith set a franchise record with 59 saves, 18 of them after regulation.
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton will face the winner of the Atlantic Division series between the Hershey Bears and Portland Pirates.
Comets falling
Canadian representation, even that of the honourary variety, may soon be down to the Marlies.
The Utica Comets, the Vancouver Canucks’ affiliate, are in trouble in their series with the Albany Devils. The Comets were held to 14 shots in Game 1 and lost 3-2. Game 2 fell apart quickly, with the Devils scoring five unanswered goals and knocking out Utica starter Richard Bachman on the way to a 5-1 win.
If the Comets, a Calder Cup finalist last season, are to save their season, they will need answers quickly against an opponent that beat them six times in the eight-game season series and finished second in goals-against per game. Albany also has a roster that features 2015 sixth overall pick Pavel Zacha, NHL defenceman Damon Severson and a stout collection of forwards that includes Brian O’Neill, the AHL’s most valuable player last season.
Hurry up and wait
Hershey and Portland have a long break after splitting their first two games in Maine. After Hershey took Game 2 on Saturday, the teams have a five-day rest and do not resume the series until Thursday.
That long break means three games could be jammed into four nights. The deciding Game 5, if necessary, on Sunday would be the second game of a back-to-back set.
The start-stop-start of AHL playoff series can both halt momentum at one point in a series only to accelerate it later.
Methodical
Defeating the Marlies this spring may well require an opponent to play a perfect game. Something Bridgeport hasn’t done.
The Sound Tigers served up enough mistakes that the Marlies capitalized on and Toronto has a 2-0 series heading home. Most of the Marlies offence has not even awakened yet with Connor Brown scoring three goals in the series and 12 Marlies tallying at least a point so far.
Bridgeport faces the job of trying to take three straight games in a building in which the Marlies tied for the league lead with 27 home wins.
Styles make fights
Out in the Western Conference, the Texas Stars prefer to skate, mixing a mobile blue line with a talented and deep set of forwards. They piled up 3.64 goals per game, second-best in the AHL, and finished fourth on the power play in the regular season.
The San Diego Gulls are happy to take the series into the alley, grind down an opponent and use a timely goal or two. The style served them well in the rough-and-tumble Pacific Division, where they finished in second place.
San Diego played a low-risk Game 1, winning 3-1. Texas made a change in net for Game 2, inserting 2010 first-round pick Jack Campbell for Maxim Lagace. San Diego handed Texas eight power-play opportunities and paid for it. The Stars scored twice on the man-advantage en route to blowing out the Gulls 5-1.
After another one of those five-day breaks, the series heads to California where there could be as many as three games in five nights.
Beat them at their own game
Ontario tormented San Jose all season long, taking nine wins in 12 games.
Game 1 followed that trend, as the Reign pelted Barracuda goaltender Aaron Dell with 37 shots and took the game 2-1 on Jonny Brodzinski’s goal with 4:03 left in the game.
The Reign continued in Game 2, outshooting the Barracuda 36-15. But this time that disparity in shots revealed the first possible signs of frustration from the Calder Cup champions. Dell was excellent, and San Jose built a 2-0 lead. Ontario threatened, moving to within a goal only to have 2014 first-round pick Nikolay Goldobin seal a 3-2 win on a third-period goal.
Heading to Southern California for Game 3 on Thursday, the question is whether San Jose can sustain some of that momentum after a five-day break.
In trouble
Milwaukee symbolized consistency all season, using a tried-and-true formula of excellent defensive play and the second-ranked power play to roll up 101 points, a Central Division title and the Western Conference’s second-best points percentage.
And then there were the Grand Rapids Griffins, a team that sandwiched a 2-8-1 start and a season-ending five-game losing streak with winning streaks of 13 and 15 games in between.
Grand Rapids has a 2-0 series lead heading home after a pair of wins in Milwaukee. The Admirals had 26 home wins this season. Griffins head coach Todd Nelson elected to go with goaltender Tom McCollum over Jared Coreau, who was his No. 1 goaltender for much of the season. The move paid off as McCollum has a .969 save percentage through two games.
A long break
Lake Erie took care of Rockford in a tidy three-game sweep.
With the rest of the Western Conference series still ongoing, Lake Erie could be looking at a break of 10 days or more.
That is plenty of time to rest and heal. But is it too much?
Bench changes
Two Canadian teams will have new head coaches for their AHL affiliates next season. The Ottawa Senators and Luke Richardson of the Binghamton Senators mutually agreed to part ways one day after the regular season’s close.
Manitoba Moose head coach Keith McCambridge is also out after the Winnipeg Jets chose not to renew his contract. With a team featuring 11 rookies and a handful of veterans that failed to meet expectations, the Moose lost 50 games and finished 28th overall.