So when you spend $50 million for an NHL head coach, what does it buy you?
Well, loyalty for starters, and commitment. Continuity. A good front man who says the right things. A bench boss who can teach structure and team play so well he can make a 30th place finish look not-so-bad on many nights.
That’s what the Toronto Maple Leafs got when they hired Mike Babcock.
They may also have saved a few bucks.
Whoa, wait. . .what? SAVED a few bucks? When the best coaches are making $2-3 million and you spend north of $6 million, how is that saving?
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Talk about your voodoo economics. Sounds more like one of the Richie Rich NHL franchises throwing its weight around.
Well, hang on now. If this $50 million man allows you to make better decisions on players because he’s part of the big picture in a way most coaches aren’t, and can’t be because of the tenuous nature of employment as an NHL head coach, and if he helps you assess talent and discipline from an insiders point-of-view, which then puts you in a better position when it comes to negotiating contracts, you may save a few dollars.
You may avoid making a David Clarkson-sized error. Or a Stephane Robidas. Or a Joffrey Lupul.
Now, Babcock isn’t infallible. His hiring wasn’t announced with puffs of smoke. He might have supported the decision when he was head coach in Detroit to sign Stephen Weiss.
But when the Leafs committed $27 million over the next six years to Nazem Kadri on Tuesday, it was a contract that had Babcock’s stamp of approval all over it. If Kadri hadn’t done all the things Babcock asked of him this season, or most of them, at the very least the hockey club would have postponed a decision on a commitment like this for at least another year.
Or traded him.
But either Kadri has matured or Babcock was able to take a fresh look at him, and with that stamp of approval, GM Lou Lamoriello could feel much more comfortable with the “organizational” decision — you can bet all the analytics fellows had their say, as well — to give Kadri some pretty significant money that some might not.
But it wasn’t crazy money. It wasn’t first line centre money. It was something halfway between “Kadri is great” money and “Kadri is a nightmare” money. It was a solid commitment to a 25-year-old former first round pick of which the organization knew about as much as it could about any player.
So how is this saving money?
Well, waiting a year might have cost the team more. Buying four years of free agency keeps the long-term costs down. Having that Babcockian stamp of approval means the club can feel pretty darn comfortable that investing in Kadri will mean they don’t have to go out and spend a lot more to get some other team’s expensive veteran centre.
Think of Babcock, in other words, as a pretty useful financial advisor. He’ll tell you what he thinks is a savvy investment, and what isn’t, and his track record is impressive.
Plus, if it wasn’t a hometown discount with Kadri, it was a decision that seemed to partly be about Kadri deciding he’d take a little less to play for Babcock, and hope the long-term benefits will be there down the road.
Now, if Kadri turns out not to be the player with upside who has much more to give, this Babcock-as-savings theory blows up pretty quickly. So we’ll see.
But the club passed on James Reimer’s salary demands largely because the coach wasn’t enthralled with the veteran goaltender, and if Martin Marincin gets a multi-year contract this summer at decent money, it will be because Babcock saw what the analytics people saw, and by the end of the season was giving Marincin huge dollops of ice time.
The same ice time Dion Phaneuf was getting at $7 million a season.
For now, Babcock can think big picture because finishing 30th is okay. For now, he’s not going to do what Randy Carlyle did, push to keep two enforcers, which needlessly cost the Leafs Joe Colborne in the same way Steve Sullivan was once thoughtlessly discarded.
One day, however, Babcock will want his shiny object. He’ll push to trade the first round pick for the useful rental. He’ll not be in the mood to be thrifty.
But that time is a fair way off, agreed? At least three seasons?
For now, depending on how the Steven Stamkos story plays out, the Leafs are in no rush to become a cap team. President Brendan Shanahan has long said he has no interest in being a cap team unless the Leafs are a contending team.
Some events could change the decisions that lie ahead. Well, one event in particular. If the Leafs win the draft lottery in 16 days and the right to select Auston Matthews, it could alter many things about how the team chooses to proceed in the next one or two years. If the Leafs don’t pick first, that may make them play the game a little more conservatively.
Right now, they have $64 million committed to 20 players, a number that will drop when they either trade Jared Cowen so some other team can buy him out and get the cap credit, or buy him out themselves. They have decisions to make on RFAs Marincin, Frank Corrado, Peter Holland and goalie Garrett Sparks, as well as UFAs Michael Grabner and P.A. Parenteau.
William Nylander will be on team next fall, and possibly Mitch Marner too, along with at least three or four Marlie farmhands.
On Stamkos, the Leafs will take their shot. But you no longer have the feeling it’s a get-him-no-matter-the-cost proposition. They won’t blow their brains out just to get him on the roster in the same way they did to land Babcock. North of $10 million per? Doesn’t seem likely, given the restraint they’ve show in doing deals for Kadri and Morgan Rielly.
The pitch will be a noteworthy salary — between $8-9 million — and to be part of a logical championship plan in his hometown where the benefits of being Stamkos could be very, very lucrative. They could offer him the captaincy, and certainly the chance to play centre every night. They’ll welcome him with open arms and make him the team’s highest paid player, but won’t get into a bidding war that ties them up in salary cap knots for years to come.
If successful, the Leafs could then create more room by moving Tyler Bozak ($4.2 million per, two more seasons) or Lupul ($5.25 million per, two more seasons). There are ways to make a Stamkos signing work, and the Leafs have certainly shown ingenuity over the past year in managing their cap, thanks to the know-how of Brandon Pridham.
But they won’t strangle themselves, not in the way they appeared to be strangled 18 months ago when they had Clarkson, Phaneuf and Phil Kessel on the roster, little flexibility and a great sense of hopelessness.
To stay lean, they’ll lean on Babcock to give them the long-term advice few coaches are in a position to give. Poor Claude Julien in Boston, for goodness sakes, has given that franchise nine years of service and a Stanley Cup, and you get the sense Charlie Jacobs, Cam Neely and Don Sweeney view him as an employee, but not one empowered to help them chart a course for the future.
So Babcock and $50 million as a way to save money? It could play out that way. It may already have.
