We’ve hit the mid-point of the NHL season, thus there’s plenty of time left to try and take a run at your fantasy league’s title. Your ability to contend starts with your ability to recognize trends and look for value via trade or through the waiver wire.
Here are some players to buy low or sell high on. These players may help in one, two, or more categories, and the categories will be specified.
Sell high
Tyler Johnson (Tampa Bay – Centre)
As of today, there are 101 forwards in the NHL that have played at least 500 five-on-five minutes. Tyler Johnson leads these forwards in points per 60 minutes at 3.77, way ahead of second-place Ryan Getzlaf at 3.16.
Johnson is a top-10 forward in fantasy hockey so far this year, but there are red flags that warn of decline.
First, that rate of points at five-on-five will slow down, and maybe by a lot. Last year, the leader in points per 60 minutes was Getzlaf at 3.13, and only he and Corey Perry finished over 3.00. In the 2011-2012 season, only Evgeni Malkin finished over 3.05. Johnson’s point rate will slow down, and it could be by quite a bit unless he truly is the next Ryan Getzlaf.
Johnson is third in the NHL in points and fifth in assists, so look for someone in your league that needs assists badly. Considering the draft day investment – maybe a top-150 draft pick – and what he can be sold as – a top-10 fantasy skater – there is a lot of profit potential here.
Mark Giordano (Calgary – Defence)
The slowdown has already started for Giordano. Through the end of November, the Calgary defenceman had 25 points in 25 games with a plus-14 rating. In his 15 games played since, he has 10 points and a plus-3 rating. More than the points, it’s important to know just how far Giordano’s plus/minus may continue to fall.
Calgary has the second-worst possession mark as measured by unblocked shot attempt differential so far this season as a team at 44.5 per cent (via Hockey Analysis). Last year, the Toronto Maple Leafs finished last in this regard. Last year for Toronto, Dion Phaneuf started the year with a plus-12 rating through the first 27 games. Over the rest of the season, Phaneuf was a minus-10.
While I do think Giordano is a better defenceman than Phaneuf, the Flames as a whole aren’t much better (if at all) than the Leafs of last year. Giordano’s points have stabilized but his plus/minus will likely continue to decline. Now would be the time to sell him while he’s still a top-5 fantasy defenceman.
Don’t forget to sign up for Sportsnet’s Fantasy Hockey Pool. It’s too late to submit picks this week, but there are weekly prizes for those that want to sign up for next week. Those prizes include a $500 gift card, or a Sportsnet gift pack.
Buy low
Gustav Nyquist (Detroit – Right Wing)
Nyquist is multi-position eligible on both Yahoo (Centre/Right Wing) and ESPN (Left Wing/Right Wing), so that’s a bonus right off the top. There is, of course, more reasons than that to try and trade for him.
With just one goal in his last 10 games, Nyquist has hit a bit of a wall. Nyquist has skated on Detroit’s third line of late, and receiving less ice time than he was seeing in November. Over his last 97 games, which includes that cold streak, Nyquist has 43 goals. That’s an 82-game pace of 36 goals. For reference, only seven players in the NHL hit that mark last year. Nyquist was also back with Henrik Zetterberg last night.
At five-on-five this year, Nyquist is shooting 7.8 per cent. Last year, he shot 13.5 per cent. Assuming that the answer lies somewhere in the middle, that should be an extra two or three goals just by shooting percentage rebound alone. Every goal matters in fantasy rotisserie leagues, and if he can be had as anything less than a top-50 forward in the trade market, that’s a trade that should be made.
Justin Faulk (Carolina – Defence)
There are currently nine defencemen in the NHL with 20 or more points and 100 or more shots on goal: Brent Burns, Drew Doughty, Dougie Hamilton, Alex Pietrangelo, Erik Karlsson, Shea Weber, Keith Yandle, Kris Letang, and Justin Faulk. Only two of those defencemen are under 90 per cent owned on ESPN (Hamilton and Faulk) and only one is under 70 per cent owned (Faulk).
The shots are nothing new for Faulk; over the previous two seasons, he was 1 of 25 regular defencemen to average at least two shots on goal per game (per Hockey Reference). Faulk leads Carolina defencemen in relative puck possession (relative to his team that is), and this is important: Since November 1st, Carolina has a better puck possession mark than Minnesota, St. Louis, or the New York Rangers. The only thing that was holding back Faulk’s value was his minus-17 rating. That should rebound quite a bit, and Faulk can be had on some waiver wires, if not cheaply on the trade market.
Faulk could easily be a top-25 defenceman for the rest of the season.
Speaking of Kris Letang, the newest matchups for Sportsnet’s Pick ‘n Play contest here on Sportsnet.ca were released today. It’s a fantasy-type game where players that are facing each other the following Saturday are pitted against each other. Letang is facing off against Montreal’s P.K. Subban this Saturday. I always have a hard time picking against Pittsburgh, so Letang is the choice here.
*Stats courtesy of Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, Behind The Net, War On Ice, and ESPN.
