Before we speculate on how the Ottawa Senators’ showing last year might translate to this season, a quick clarification is required: Which Sens team, precisely, are we talking about?
To an almost unbelievable extent, Ottawa’s 2014-15 campaign was a tale of two seasons. Are the Senators the team that scuffled to a 22-23-10 record through two-thirds of the year or the one that positively aced the final third of the calendar, putting together a 21-3-3 mark that delivered a playoff berth instead of the top-five draft pick that once seemed entirely plausible?
The easy, reasonable and likely correct answer is that Ottawa’s true identity lies somewhere between those extreme poles. And for the Senators organization, the most pertinent question may not be whether or not that’s enough to get them back in the playoffs this season, but rather if this team that saw growth from some green players last year is truly on the path to contention.
In a way, the two things that seemed to most define Ottawa’s 2014-15 — the astounding stretch run and the fact it was largely built on the out-of-the-blue emergence of undrafted goalie Andrew Hammond — really don’t have much to say about where the team is right now.
We don’t need a global stats movement to tell us the Sens’ late-season performance is completely unsustainable and that putting faith in it would be akin to believing every word spoken by a politician on the campaign trail. As for Hammond, wouldn’t it be nice to live in a world where, when a 27-year-old who wasn’t even good in the AHL suddenly catches fire in the NHL, it means big things are on the horizon? Alas, sports tend to be much less romantic than that and — while completely writing him off introduces the possibly of sporting some egg — most observers are united in their opinion that Hammond won’t soon be in the Vezina hunt.
But, as mentioned, neither of those things are the real story here. What should cause the Sens to swell with optimism are the seasons put forward by rookie wingers Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman, in addition to the steps taken by a few other youngsters in different stages of their development.
Stone, who finished second in Calder Trophy balloting, was quite possibly the team’s best forward, finishing with 26 goals and 64 points. Speed might not be this guy’s thing, but making fantastic plays with the puck sure is. Toss in a 6-foot-2 frame and this right winger is looking like an absolute steal, having been selected in the sixth round of the 2010 draft. Hoffman — a fifth-rounder in 2009 — might not have the same overall lustre of Stone, but his team-leading 27 goals are an obvious point of intrigue. Even if he doesn’t equal that total, it sure seems like he’s a top-nine guy capable of contributing offence in the coming years.
While it’s easy to latch onto the story of those two late-round gems, the play of a very high pick should be getting its share of ink, too. It’s taken a while, but centre Mika Zibanejad looks to be making good on the potential that got him drafted sixth overall in 2011. The 22-year-old Swede finished with his first 20-goal campaign last year, in part because his ice time increased after Ottawa axed former coach Paul MacLean in early December and replaced him with Dave Cameron. With his 6-foot-2 body filling out, Zibanejad is becoming a barreling presence up the middle and could be poised to take another substantial step forward in his fourth NHL season.
Whether he or Kyle Turris can ever be called true No. 1 pivots remains to be seen, but at the very least, Ottawa looks like it has two guys with different approaches capable of anchoring a scoring line. Throw in the growth anticipated from offence-oriented defenceman Cody Ceci, 21, and Smilin’ Curtis Lazar — still only 20 — and it’s easy to see why there are some good long-term vibes piling up. Oh yeah, there’s also captain Erik Karlsson, who’s managed to win a pair of Norris Trophies before his age 25 season by being an attacking menace like no other from the blueline. In fact, how did we write this much about the Ottawa Senators without mentioning that guy?
Naturally, not everything in Ottawa is as smooth as Karlsson’s skating stride. There are some crease questions kicking around because presumptive starter Craig Anderson is 34 and has experienced some ups and downs the past two seasons, in part due to the injury bug that never seems to stop haunting this guy. There’s also Bobby Ryan’s mega-contract, which, at the moment, might be the worst thing attached to this club. Ryan has never even approached expectations during his two years in Ottawa, dipping to 18 goals last season.
Then again, in the spirit of hope that clings to a season opening, what if Ryan, still just 28, starts resembling the guy who eclipsed 30 goals four times with the Anaheim Ducks? What if Anderson looks like he did during the playoffs versus Montreal, when he allowed just four goals in four games (his career save percentage in 27 post-season contests, FYI, is .933) or like the guy who led the league with a .941 save percentage in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season?
At that point, the Senators could absolutely be about the here and now in the Eastern Conference.
More likely, though, is a scenario where a young group of players experience some highs and lows en route to competing hard for a playoff spot that’s increasingly difficult to attain. Should Ottawa fall short of post-season berth this year, it’s not necessarily a sign things are trending the wrong way. After all, last year’s benchmark only exists because of a couple miraculous months. That kind of magic was never going to carry this team to its ultimate goal. The real issue in Ottawa is figuring out which of its promising kids someday can.