LAS VEGAS — In this Counterpunchers Classic, no lead was safe.
Not within a game. Not within the series.
No team had won twice in a row, until Thursday.
One win from glory, the Carolina Hurricanes have their first lead of this series. And we see five significant reasons why they should use this momentum to hoist the Stanley Cup.
Goaltending
Carter Hart has hit a wall, giving up four goals a game and saving pucks at a rate of .856.
Qualify the goalie’s numbers by pointing to Carolina’s great power-play looks or some of the Knights’ defensive miscues all you want.
You don’t win Stanley Cups with .856 goaltending.
Despite the case for backup Adin Hill, who backstopped Vegas to its only championship, or the argument that the skaters in front of Hart may have lost some faith, coach John Tortorella is dead-set on living or dying by Hart.
“I know him. I know there’s a better game in him. I’ve seen it throughout the playoffs. I think he’s a very good goalie,” Tortorella told reporters in Summerlin, Nev., on Saturday. “We’ve got to do a better job around him. You can look at the numbers — and you guys, that’s what you do; you spit out those numbers — but I’ve got to look at things differently.”
Things have looked and felt differently around the Hurricanes since an overworked Frederik Andersen (.815) disappeared from the series and Brandon Bussi entered in Game 3.
Bussi (2-1) has been far and away the series’ best and most unlikely goaltender.
“He’s given us a chance pretty much every start to win, and that’s what you ask of a goalie,” coach Rod Brind’Amour said.
As for Andersen not even dressing as Bussi’s backup?
“If you’re not gonna start him,” Brind’Amour said, “you want to give him as much mental and physical rest as possible.”
The Karlsson injury
The Cup Final is so often framed as a war of attrition, yet both sides have remained fully healthy… until now.
Sean Walker wasn’t trying to injure William Karlsson Thursday when he drilled Vegas’s second-line centre into the end boards and presumably damaged his wrist. But he was trying to hit hard.
“That’s part of this game. They’re running around hitting everybody too,” Brind’Amour said. “You just gotta do it within the rules.”
Karlsson has been ruled out for Game 6, which is horrible news for a home side that is already losing the faceoff battle and getting outmatched up the middle. Carolina’s “third-line” centre, Jordan Staal, is also its Conn Smythe favourite.
Tortorella can plug, say, another Cup-winning veteran like Brandon Saad into his lineup. But who plays 2C?
Mitch Marner’s quietest game of the post-season may have been Game 5, after his centreman went down. The shifty winger did play centre at times this season, but Karlsson’s two-way stability brings out the best in Marner.
Tortorella could also lean on Tomas Hertl up the middle. But with Staal already limiting Jack Eichel, Carolina’s advantage at centre just got more severe.
Brind’Amour: “Most teams that win stay healthy. It’s been a big deal for us.”
Discipline
One senses a tremendous amount of respect between these worthy combatants. Unlike some of the mischief and mayhem we saw in Round 1, the Cup Final has been low on meaningless scrums and post-whistle nonsense.
The teams are certainly throwing bodies and finishing their checks hard, and the penalties taken are even at 16 apiece.
But Vegas’s over-aggressions have proved more costly. Brayden McNabb’s unnecessary cross-check of Jackson Blake in the tide-turning second period of Game 5 sticks out. And Tortorella’s failed Hail Mary goalie-interference challenge in Game 2 looms as a pivot point (yes, discipline can apply to the bench, too).
“Everything this time of year just gets heightened,” Brind’Amour said. “Sometimes a penalty here or there is the difference.”
Special teams
That is especially true when one side is so clearly winning the special-teams battle.
At 5-on-5, the series’ total score is 15-14 for Vegas. High-danger chances (54-47) also favour the Golden Knights at even strength.
But Carolina’s penalty kill (86.7 per cent) has been fantastic, and its scorching power play (37.5 per cent) is straight-up winning them games, like on Thursday when the Canes went 2-for-5 on the man-advantage.
Further, all those power-play touches have helped big guns Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov gather confidence, seeing their names splash the scoresheet.
Thing is, Vegas’s power-play came into this series much stronger (23.9 per cent) than Carolina’s, which was converting at a pitiful 12.5 per cent rate until Round 4.
“We have some guys stepping up big time right now — when it matters the most, right?” Walker says.
“So, who cares what the power play was like for the first three rounds? It’s doing its job now, and the PK continues to be a strong point for us. So, special teams are huge. And if those are clicking and we can win that special-teams battle every night, it's gonna work in our favour.”
Smarter adjustments
Albeit slightly, Brind’Amour has outcoached Tortorella through five games.
Timely goaltending change. No bad challenges. And one small twist among his top nine forwards.
Bumping the rugged Jordan Martinook up alongside the previously slumping Svechnikov and Aho, and having Jarvis skate on the right wing of the red-hot Nikolaj Ehlers and Staal, has affected two lines positively.
Brind’Amour views Martinook as a set of human jumper cables.
“Wherever you stick a guy like Martinook, that line has energy. Sometimes that’s all you need,” Brind’Amour said. “A little tweak like that helps them out.”
The Golden Knights had dominated Carolina 9-1 through the first four second periods, often flying the zone, taking advantage of poor Hurricanes line changes, and executing on fearsome transition offence.
Brind’Amour has been drilling into the issue and finally stopped the bleeding in Game 5.
The Canes won Period 2 of that pivotal game 2-0. Massive turning point.
“As the series goes on,” Blake said, “you kind of learn what the other team does, and you can adjust your game a little bit to help you be successful in those.
“I think we’ve grown, just because we’ve gotten to know a little bit of what they do.”
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