The three Canadian teams in Major League Soccer are all in relatively unfamiliar positions going into 2015—they all have the same coaches who were at the helm at the end of last season.
For the Montreal Impact this is actually the first time in club history that they have had the same coach for back-to-back MLS campaigns. Meanwhile, Carl Robinson returns to Vancouver after a relatively successful first season that saw the Whitecaps make the playoffs for the second time in their history. Toronto FC will start the year with Greg Vanney who took over mid-season for the Reds after Ryan Nelsen’s dismissal.
With all three coaches returning we have a better idea than usual about how these teams will play and how they may adjust their playing styles to suit off-season acquisitions.
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Montreal Impact
Montreal is coming off a season to forget. The Impact’s tailspin started about mid-way through 2013 and continued into Frank Klopas’s reign. In 2014 the only bright spot for Montreal was the Canadian Championship in which they successfully defended their Voyageurs Cup title.
Klopas took a long ball approach with Montreal last season and there isn’t any sign that suggests he’ll change up his tactics this year.
One way to compare playing styles is by looking at possession-adjusted passes. Simply looking at how many long balls a team plays per game isn’t necessarily the best indicator of whether or not a team plays a “long ball style.” Long ball teams may have less possession than others so they actually have fewer opportunities in a game to play a long ball.
Possession adjusted statistics look at how many passes a team would have played if they had averaged 50 percent possession per match. This way we can more easily compare what types of passes teams are actually choosing to play when they have the ball instead of just looking at the raw numbers.
Montreal played 71 long balls per game adjusted for possession last season. This was the second most in the league behind only Colorado and New England.
Looking at the changes to Montreal’s squad, it looks like we’ll be seeing more of the same this year. Adding Nigel Reo-Coker to the mix in midfield and Dominc Oduro up top doesn’t seem to indicate any major change in approach. Having Oduro playing off the back of the last defender and looking for through-balls may actually encourage the Impact to play even more long balls.
Montreal also played only 16 crosses per game adjusted for possession last season, which was the lowest total in MLS. This isn’t surprising given how many long balls they were playing, and it also isn’t likely to change much if Montreal opts to try and capitalize on Oduro’s speed instead.
Vancouver Whitecaps
Under Carl Robinson the Whitecaps have played a style that is almost the antithesis to Montreal’s long ball game. Vancouver played 363 possession adjusted short-passes per game last year, the fourth most in MLS behind only the L.A. Galaxy, Seattle Sounders and Columbus Crew.
The Galaxy and Sounders were undoubtedly the two best teams during the MLS regular season so Vancouver finds itself in elite company in terms of playing style.
Robinson seems to have a long-term focus with the Whitecaps, and he’s been rewarded with a long-term contract in return, so evidently the board is happy with the style of play they’re seeing.
Young striker Octavio Rivero was the only major acquisition for Vancouver during the off-season so Robinson must feel pretty comfortable with the squad he has. Signing Rivero to a young designated player deal probably signals that although Vancouver are happy with their overall tactical approach they still need a few more players who are capable of putting the ball in the back of the net.
Toronto FC
TFC under Greg Vanney is the biggest mystery of the three Canadian teams going into 2015. Partly because Vanney only came in last season for the final ten games, and partly because yet again Toronto FC has made some major off-season moves.
In 2015, Toronto FC averaged 61 long balls per game adjusted for possession and 342 short passes per game adjusted for possession, both significantly under the league average. So even when Toronto FC had the ball, they weren’t doing a whole lot with it.
Shipping out Jermaine Defoe and replacing him with Jozy Altidore is an interesting choice, but one that probably won’t have too much impact on Toronto’s approach. What will have a much more significant effect on Toronto FC’s playing style is the signing of Sebastian Giovinco.
Giovinco has the potential to be one of the best players in MLS, but he’s far from the first TFC player to have this reputation upon arrival. Giovinco never really broke through at Juventus, but he was excellent throughout his time on loan with Parma.
During the 2012-13 season with Parma, Giovinco averaged 0.43 goals, 3.9 shots and 0.32 assists per 90 minutes. If he can replicate anything like these performances he’ll have a drastic influence on Toronto FC’s season. Giovinco has also had high dribbling numbers throughout his career so we may see Toronto play more with the ball on the ground this campaign.
Montreal and Vancouver will most likely play similar styles to last season and have made acquisitions that suit their approach, but Toronto FC is truly the wildcard among these three as they’ve hit the reset button yet again.
Sam Gregory is soccer analytics writer based in Montreal. Follow him on Twitter