Optimism abounds in the Central Division ahead of 2026-27, and why shouldn’t it? Three of these clubs set the pace last year. Four made the playoffs. Two more look poised to challenge for a spot this season, with a strong start. It’s widely considered the best division in hockey right now, and is well-equipped to keep that title.
Pessimism points out there are only so many playoff spots to go around.
So, what exactly are the ceilings and floors for these squads? While dreams of playoff runs fuel the season, best- and worst-case scenarios for each club are measured not just in playoff berths but in how they get there. For an obvious few, it’s Stanley Cup or bust. For others, victory is about the development along the way.
The roller-coaster of another season awaits. Buckle up.
Key additions: Bowen Byram, D; Patrick Kane, W; Ian Cole, D; Cole Smith, W; Jordan Greenway, W
Key subtractions: Sam Lafferty, C; Ilya Mikheyev, W; André Burakovsky, W
Cap space today: $1.09 million
Best-case scenario: Davidson’s blue-line bet pays off.
GM Kyle Davidson paid a high price for Bowen Byram, sending the fourth-overall pick to Buffalo in exchange for the man he believes can be the club’s cornerstone for years to come — at least seven, considering the extension that’ll kick in next summer. Byram wastes no time making himself at home, providing the kind of defensive foundation this young club can build around. The days of rebuilding are over — it’s time to play meaningful hockey down the stretch now. A wild-card berth is still hard to come by, but just being relevant down the stretch feels like a win.
Worst-case scenario: Bedard’s recovery puts progress on hold.
Davidson’s off-season moves to bolster his blue line, bring back Patrick Kane up front, and lay out the red carpet for Roman Kantserov to step into a top-line role as Connor Bedard’s wingman of the future, can only go so far without his centrepiece. After undergoing shoulder surgery this summer, Bedard’s recovery has reportedly progressed well but best-case return has him not suiting up until November. That’s just enough time for the Blackhawks to build up a sizeable hurdle ahead of them, and in a Central Division as strong as this one, it becomes a bit of a mountain. The top-six needs more time to gel, and the runway for this season starts to look shorter and shorter. Progress doesn’t have to mean a playoff spot, but frustrations begin to brew as the Blackhawks remain stuck at the bottom.
Key additions: Jaden Schwartz, W; Vinnie Hinostroza, C; Fabian Lysell, W
Key subtractions: Valeri Nichushkin, W; Jack Drury, C; Ross Colton, C
Cap space today: $404,159
Best-case scenario: Sakic’s middle-six acquisitions help Colorado get back on top.
The club lost Valeri Nichushkin in a necessary cap-clearing deal, but gain much-needed depth in his place, and Sakic’s low-stakes gamble on Jaden Schwartz is a stroke of genius. With health on his side, Schwartz thrives, registering his first 50-point campaign since the year his Blues won the Stanley Cup. With a full off-season back in Colorado under his belt, Nazem Kadri, too, turns back the clock, elevating the club’s third-line production and breathing some new life into the league’s most head-scratching power play. The Avalanche have another pedal-to-the-metal season, only this time, they don’t run out of gas just shy of the Final. The Cup returns to the Rockies.
Worst-case scenario: Last year’s goaltending proves unsustainable, and cracks emerge in the crease.
After posting the league’s best team save percentage last year — one of several statistical categories the Presidents’ Trophy winners dominated in 2025-26 — the men in the blue paint come back down the earth as tandem Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood fall out of sync. Colorado’s offence can outscore some of the problems, but questions in net have the Cup favourites looking fallible — if only briefly.
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Key additions: Joel Kiviranta, W
Key subtractions: Mavrik Bourque, C; Ilya Lyubushkin, D
Cap space today: $389,667
Best-case scenario: Rantanen joins his 45-goal teammates and Dallas makes a big run.
After health hindered Mikko Rantanen in his first full season with the Stars, the Finn is a man on a mission. Several scoring streaks see him reach 50 goals for the first time since 2022-23 with the Avalanche, and he hits a new career-high in points in the process. Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston need not worry — there are plenty of goals to go around in this offence, as we finally get to see what this trio can do over the course of a full campaign — and a long playoff run, all the way to the Cup Final.
Worst-case scenario: Complicated contract fallout lingers into the season.
Claim all you want that contract talks are all business, not personal… but there are feelings involved here, and after the summer-long saga between Robertson and Stars management, the situation doesn’t sit right with the 45-goal man. While still intent on winning in Dallas, rumours of his impending departure prove to be a distraction, and despite still making a strong playoff run, the crumbling locker-room chemistry is tough to overcome. Robertson’s final game of the season is his final as a Star, and he walks away without Dallas getting anything in return.
Key additions: Blake Coleman, W; Calvin Pickard, G
Key subtractions: Mats Zuccarello, W; Marcus Johansson, C; Vladimir Tarasenko, W; Jacob Middleton, D
Cap space today: $1.152 million
Best-case scenario: Kirill Kaprizov has career year with a new centreman.
The Wild’s long, drawn-out search for the perfect centreman to take Kirill Kaprizov to even great heights has concluded. Maybe it’s second-year forward Danila Yurov, whose breakout elevates this talented top-six to challenge for first place in the division. Or, maybe Yurov shows enough promise to up his trade stock and the Wild deal him for, say, Robert Thomas or Dylan Larkin or another yet-to-be-named trade target. Confidence up and down the roster (including confidence about Hughes’ signing status) propels the Wild to their first Conference Final in more than 20 years.
Worst-case scenario: Hughes’ huge contract questions overshadow the season.
His exact words when asked about contract talks with the Wild this week were, “I’m sure it’ll work out,” but while Quinn Hughes himself may not be bothered by the constant questions about his future and whether or not it’ll be in Minnesota, his teammates might be. There’s no doubting the talent on this squad, but what happens when a few losses come along? Every emotion is heightened, and that pressure proves to be a distraction. Losses pile up, and Hughes starts to wonder if a fresh start might be the best move, after all.
Key additions: Mavrik Bourque, C; Jack Drury, C; Ross Colton, C; Alexander Kerfoot, C
Key subtractions: Zachary L’Heureux, W; Erik Haula, W; Fedor Svechkov, C
Cap space today: $9.7 million
Best-case scenario: A new GM brings a fresh vision into focus.
He’s not stripping this roster down to its studs, but new GM Chris MacFarland is overhauling the identity of a team that’s been stuck in the messy middle for too long. Steven Stamkos gets on a scoring spree early to prove last year’s bounce back was no fluke, and the new kids are taking notes. Rookie Brady Martin hits his stride and stays with the big club, while Mavrik Bourque builds on last year’s 20-goal breakout in Dallas and registers his first 50-point campaign. MacFarland rehomes a resurgent Jonathan Marchessault and while the team sells at the deadline, there’s a direction here for the future.
Worst-case scenario: Saros struggles, and the Predators pay the price.
All that hope, and all those breakout performances, only go so far without a steady hand in net. Goalie stats took a dip league-wide last year, and Juuse Saros’ numbers were no exception — his 3.16 goals-against average and .894 save percentage were both career-lows for the 31-year-old. Unable to bounce back, Saros struggles to be the reliable backdrop of a team looking to be relevant again, and they’re right back where they were last year, only with a few more questions.
Key additions: Mason McTavish, C; Connor McMichael, C; Brandon Carlo, D; Ross Johnston, W
Key subtractions: Jordan Kyrou, W
Cap space today: $4.37 million
Best-case scenario: Depth propels Blues back to relevance.
Rebuild? Not in St. Louis. New GM Alex Steen has been around this organization long enough to know that a retool-on-the-fly is possible, and his players prove him right. Jordan Kyrou is in Washington now, but new faces up front in Mason McTavish and Connor McMichael, step up to replace his production. Depth is the name of this team’s game, and while you won’t catch any league goal-scoring leaders in this group, the Blues boast seven players with 20 goals or more, and that’s enough to have them on the brink of contention again. Jordan Binnington’s strong play lands Steen great value on the deadline market and Joel Hofer proves he’s ready to take the full-time reins.
Worst-case scenario: Goalie questions get in the way of progress.
That group of goal-scorers can only do so much if the men in net struggle, and that becomes a storyline all season. Binnington’s performance, at this point, feels like it’s mostly about trade value come deadline time, but the landscape is different for Hofer. His next contract is counting on a strong performance, and so are the Blues. What happens if he struggles, too?
Key additions: Vincent Trochek, C; Anders Lee, W; Sebastian Cossa, G
Key subtractions: Sean Durzi, D; JJ Peterka, W; Alex Kerfoot, C; Ian Cole, D; Vitek Vaneck, C
Cap space today: $4.58 million
Best-case scenario: Veteran adds help the young guys thrive as Mammoth become division’s darling.
Landing Vincent Trocheck via trade this summer wasn’t just a victory for a team still trying to grow its reputation as a destination, nor was it simply about getting better in the faceoff dot, and deeper down the middle. Bringing in Trocheck is like also hiring a coach specially equipped to help Logan Cooley take his game to another level. Both hail from Pittsburgh, and share ice time during summers; Cooley is an admirer of Trocheck’s game, and now has another built-in mentor. His breakout propels the Mammoth to challenge for a top-three spot in this stacked division, as does another 40-goal season for Dylan Guenther. Lee’s veteran presence as lead rebound-burier encourages Guenther to unleash that shot more than ever, and Utah breaks down the wall between themselves and the division’s top three.
Worst-case scenario: The Mammoth are better, but so are their rivals.
Unstoppable force meets immovable object, and as strong as this Utah team looks, there remains a brick wall stopping them from doing great damage within their own division. The trio of Colorado, Dallas, and Minnesota gatekeep the top of the Central, leaving the Mammoth to a toil in a crowded wild-card race. Déjà vu ensues.
Key additions: Stuart Skinner, G; Mario Ferraro, D
Key subtractions: Eric Comrie, G; Gustav Nyqvist, W; Jonathan Toews, C
Cap space today: $4.48 million
Best-case scenario: The offence outscores any questions in net.
With Hellebuyck moving on, it’s time to hit the reset button — in the emotional sense only, that is; there are too many talented players in their primes here to flirt with a roster reset. You won’t find a rebuild here. Stuart Skinner mans the crease, and he may not play himself onto many Vezina ballots, he also isn’t costing Winnipeg games. A bounce-back campaign from Cole Perfetti, paired with a breakout for first-round darling Viggo Björck, provides the perfect jolt of energy on an offence that saw Mark Scheifele hit a new career high last year. Chips on shoulders spur production. Come April, a wild-card spot is in hand.
Worst-case scenario: The Hellebuyck saga goes on… and on…
Jarring as it is to refer to the departure of your MVP-calibre No. 1 netminder as “best case,” the alternative is a long, drawn-out saga that dampens the mood throughout training camp and drags into the season unresolved. Executives around the league are playing hardball, and, unable to secure a favourable return, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is stuck between a rock and a hard place and must trade low or wait it out.
