As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to defend the American League East title, sportsnet.ca breaks down every squad in the division by looking at each team’s depth chart, strengths & weaknesses and key storylines to watch in 2016.
More analysis:
Baltimore | Boston | Tampa Bay | NY Yankees
There’s no way around it—this is a watershed year for the Toronto Blue Jays. The 2015 campaign saw the team vanquish one of the longest runs of mediocrity in professional sports, reaching the post-season for the first time in more than two decades after turning over a fifth of the major league roster at the trade deadline and blitzkrieging towards October on a 40-18 run.
One in four Canadians watched in solemn disappointment as that team fell two games shy of the World Series, then watched again in bitter resentment as the front office was reshuffled weeks later, with club president Paul Beeston and general manager Alex Anthopoulos being replaced by Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, both formerly of the Cleveland Indians.
Shapiro and Atkins quickly got to work modernizing the front office (numerous player development and high performance positions were created and filled) and building organizational depth, signing a wealth of veteran players to fill out a triple-A roster left depleted by all that trade deadline maneuvering.
They also made minor tweaks to the major league roster, re-signing Marco Estrada and bringing in J.A. Happ to bolster the rotation, before flipping speedy outfielder Ben Revere for Drew Storen, the former Washington Nationals closer. Aside from those moves, plus the returns of electrifying starter Marcus Stroman and Canadian left-fielder Michael Saunders from long-term injury, the core of the roster remains largely unchanged from the one that was responsible for all that excitement just half a year ago.
But it’s extremely unlikely that we’ll be able to say something similar once 2016 is through. The sense is that if the Blue Jays falter this season and end up with a similar record to the sub-.500 mark they held at the trade deadline last year, there won’t be another all-in push. Instead, the team could be stripped apart to the screws, as Shapiro and Atkins position themselves to refresh the franchise with youth and give it a healthy start on its next era. Of course, if the Blue Jays play up to their potential, they’ll likely contend for the World Series, with franchise cornerstones Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, both in the final year of their contracts, taking one last run at bringing a championship banner to Rogers Centre before hitting free agency.
No matter which way you look at it, this is a franchise quickly approaching a fork in the road. The results of this season will largely determine which direction it veers in.
DEPTH CHART:
Click on each position for a breakdown
KEY STORYLINES TO WATCH:
The elephants in the room
Perhaps you’ve heard that the Blue Jays have a pair of key roster pieces heading into their walk years this season? Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are both prodigious, seminal talents who have come of age at the Rogers Centre, and as they enter the season without commitments for 2017, their futures with the franchise are very seriously in doubt. Whether you like it or not, this will be a storyline that hangs over the Blue Jays until it reaches its eventual conclusion with both sluggers signing pricey, multi-year contracts at some point in the next 10 months. All that remains to be seen is whether those deals are signed in Toronto or elsewhere.
The uncertainty of the pitching staff
The Blue Jays are going to hit—a lot. But what remains a big question mark is how well they can pitch, especially considering their opening day rotation features just one pitcher with a 200-inning season to his name: R.A. Dickey. Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez have all the upside in the world, but both are still relatively untested as major league starters. J.A. Happ is very dependable when at his best but maddeningly inefficient when at his worst. And Marco Estrada is trying to repeat a career season that stands in stark contrast to his established norms.
In the opening day bullpen there’s a strong back three (Roberto Osuna, Drew Storen and Brett Cecil), followed by two converted starters (Jesse Chavez and Gavin Floyd) and three arms with just 59.2 major league innings between them (Joe Biagini, Ryan Tepera and Arnold Leon). There’s certainly plenty of upside on the staff, and enough reason here to think this group will be fine. But there’s also reason to doubt.
The development of Aaron Sanchez
Aaron Sanchez has the potential to be a front-of-the-rotation starter, yet for most of spring training it seemed like he was destined for the bullpen, where the Blue Jays valued his overpowering arm in high leverage, late-game situations. But the 23-year-old pitched so well as a starter during camp that the team had no choice but to give him the rotation shot he resolutely desired. How well he performs in that capacity over the first few months of the regular season, and how well his body holds up to the grind of starting every five days, will say a lot about Sanchez’s role with the club in 2017 and beyond.
The Blue Jays will be closely watching his workload and results, and it sounds like he’ll be transitioned back to the bullpen at some point later this summer in order to preserve his arm for future years. That will require some careful management of Sanchez’s use so that he doesn’t end up having to be shut down in September or October when the Blue Jays need him most.
