TORONTO – The mind is inherently lazy. Rather than doing the work to more accurately evaluate a situation, it prefers to rely on what is already familiar to form narratives around which to base opinions and judgments. When you depend on your gut, that’s what is happening.
Your gut, however, can be dangerously inaccurate, which is why in evaluating where the Toronto Blue Jays are at after an often-hard-to-watch 67-95 rebuild year, capped by Sunday’s 8-3 win over the wild-card-game-bound Tampa Bay Rays, separating emotion from the analysis is integral.
Because, and let’s be blunt, the path to the No. 5 overall pick in 2020 was largely awful. The ascents of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., in particular, offered happy distractions, but over the course of six months the Blue Jays essentially ran an open tryout camp. They introduced you to players such as Socrates Brito, Alen Hanson, Nick Kingham, Ryan Feierabend and Zac Rosscup. They made you long for a starting pitcher with a 5.00 ERA. They made repeated use of an opener not because of strategy, but because for a stretch they had only a two-man rotation.
Viscerally, that can make it hard to step back and see the big picture.
At the same time, what Bichette, Guerrero, Biggio and Gurriel showed on the field, the obvious upside of Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire, the flashes from Teoscar Hernandez, Rowdy Tellez and Trent Thornton, was legitimately fun. You can see a burgeoning core at the start of a path back to the post-season.
“We improved and I think that’s great,” said manager Charlie Montoyo. “I go back to that tough schedule we had there at the end because when I saw it I really thought we were going to lose 100 games for sure. But to be 33-38 out of the break and 12-13 in September I think is awesome. We improved and we played really well. There’s momentum for next year and I like that.”
All true, but too much ebullience can also cloud judgment.
The Blue Jays have many, many areas to improve and that goes well beyond their pitching staff, although some dudes with a track-record of being productive isn’t the only obvious place to start.
First and foremost, some stability around the futures of president and CEO Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins, whose contracts expire after the 2020 season, would demonstrate to the industry that the architects of the current rebuild will be around to see things through.
Already this year, Shapiro was identified as a candidate for Big 10 commissioner by consultancy firm Korn Ferry, a job that ultimately went to Kevin Warren, who had been chief operating officer of the Minnesota Vikings. Andrew Miller left his role as COO of the Blue Jays to fill the void with the NFL squad, with his business duties now split four-ways in the executive offices.
Shapiro has a long history with Korn Ferry, which he leaned on during the hiring of Atkins, and is partly why his status continues to be the subject of intrigue. And even though he’s done all he’s promised to do, and is clearly committed to the Blue Jays and his life in Toronto, rival clubs and agents keep wondering what’s up, as do some corners of the Blue Jays clubhouse.
His future is unlikely to be top of mind with the club’s ownership at Rogers Communications Inc., which has far more pressing matters to deal with, and the corporate timeline for resolving his contract isn’t necessarily aligned with the baseball framework. That may explain why his situation hasn’t been addressed yet. But from a baseball standpoint, it’s a question that will linger, even if there’s no real direction change to be taken if a new regime took over tomorrow.
The path for the Blue Jays is more or less set, and the only real debate is over how aggressively to push and when.
The $52-million, five-year extension Randal Grichuk signed in April demonstrated the current front office is able to put money on the books in the years beyond 2020, and that should allay the concerns of free agents in the market the Blue Jays are likely to be shopping in.
A middle-tier starter such as Jake Odorrizi is sure to be in their sights, and while the Blue Jays will have lots of room to spend – perhaps in the $40 million range – this might not be the winter they feel compelled to offer the extra year or extra dollars often needed to win an auction.
Despite that, one rival scout said his intel suggests the Blue Jays will be active during the off-season, which could also mean the trade market. Which is interesting, but nothing more than talk until the walk is walked.
Pitching help – a couple of starters plus a bullpen arm or two, along with a capable centre-fielder and a reliable slugger with flexibility on the diamond like Mike Moustakas perhaps – would certainly help Montoyo, pitching coach Pete Walker and bullpen coach Matt Buschmann.
Often, the trio was forced to make chicken salad with chopped squirrel, stabilizing things after a 34-57 opening despite a meat-grinder schedule and the trades of Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Hudson and David Phelps.
Through the repeated hoofs to the groin the season often delivered, Montoyo remained positive and upbeat when at times he had little cause to. That allowed an environment in which the kids were handed the clubhouse to flourish, even as he often seemed to be managing up to an actively involved front office as much as he was managing down to players.
At times, Montoyo seemed to be caught between those two worlds and the high-performance department, trying to balance the competing interests with his own desires, and that made him seem tentative at times. The best example of that came in the sitting of Guerrero on Victoria Day, a mess said to have led to an uncomfortable period between manager and GM.
The collective situation likely impacted some of Montoyo’s communications to the clubhouse, as well, and that’s an area he’s been implored to be more active in next year. One person who’s known him for years said he simply needs to be allowed to use the people skills that have made him a popular minor-league manager and big-league coach for two decades.
Montoyo, when asked how he wanted to improve as a manager next year, replied: “What I liked about this year was if I go in there and look in the mirror, I feel good about what I did and how I did everything. But there’s always the chance that you can communicate more. There’s always a chance for an improvement. I don’t care how old I am. There’s always a chance I should have said that more, or I should have talked to this guy more. It’s such a long year and a grind that I think that can always be improved more.”
The manager said he expects the entire coaching staff to return, although he was still discussing the matter with Atkins, and that the addition of an assistant hitting coach to help Guillermo Martinez was under consideration.
Martinez, one of three first-time big-league coaches under a rookie manager, took some heat early and worked relentlessly when the team was routinely no-hit well into games. Over time he began finding his voice and progressively, “he got better and he got better,” said Montoyo.
How?
“Just talking and communicating, knowing the league,” replied the manager. “I thought he did a great job.”
An assistant hitting coach would “be breaking down video and seeing swings and being in the cage forever, which is tough,” said Montoyo, freeing up Martinez to do more game-planning and individual work.
The first year of coaching is always a trial by fire and the entire group had the type of learning that could only happen by doing. Their 2019 experience should be leveraged next year, and Montoyo said the group is considering a meet-up with 10-15 players during the off-season to talk about ways to improve.
Immediate roster issues include the pending free agency of Justin Smoak, who was feted by his teammates as he came off the field following a seventh-inning double and given a hearty and deserved standing ovation from the crowd of 25,738.
“I told the guys when I came into the dugout, ‘Can you believe they do that for a .200 hitter?’” said Smoak with his typical dry wit. “You don’t see that every day.”
Guerrero was waiting for Smoak on the field as he ran off and gave him a big hug, which was repeated in the dugout, their admiration and respect for the 32-year-old evident. A handful asked Smoak to sign a jersey for them, Guerrero included.
“I wish I would have given Vladdy my helmet so he could have pinch-run for me,” said Smoak. “It was great. They’re a bunch of young guys trying to find their way and we have some young guys here that are really, really good players. It’s something to be excited about.”
And his impact on them?
“I don’t know. I hope it was good.”
The Blue Jays haven’t shut the door on a return for the beloved first baseman, but certainly seem determined to explore other options, first. Another veteran who made an impact with his leadership, Clay Buchholz, is also a free agent and expected to head elsewhere.
That leaves closer Ken Giles as the most interesting asset on the roster, a pending free agent after the 2020 season whom the Blue Jays were set to deal to the Yankees at the deadline until New York walked away at the last minute, preventing them from trading him elsewhere.
The closer was dominant around an elbow injury that landed him on the injured list and curtailed his usage, but he still converted 23 of his 24 save chances, posted a 1.87 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 53 innings. After an uneasy stint with the Houston Astros, he’s settled into Toronto – “This place makes my family happy and when my family’s happy, I’m happy,” he said – and would ideally like to stay, although the sides haven’t discussed an extension.
“No, we have not,” said Giles. “I’m pretty sure if that comes about, I’m more than willing to listen. If it’s not, it is what it is. I know the direction this organization is going and I’m not going to push something that’s not necessary.
“I’m going to go into the off-season with the mentality of, ‘If I get moved, I get moved. If I don’t, I’ll see you guys next year and enjoy another great year.’”
In some ways, Giles may offer a bit of a litmus test of how aggressively the Blue Jays push forward. Trading him destabilizes the bullpen and surrenders a win-now piece that can lock down games for a team looking to jump forward, while dealing him away for prospects punts the competitive window down the field.
The Blue Jays’ total attendance of 1,750,144 was their lowest since 2010, when only 1,495,482 showed up. They’d been up over two million from 2012 onward, when another young core led by Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus behind all-star Jose Bautista began to emerge. Optimism reigned at that time, but remember that it took several bold strikes and three years for the Blue Jays to get over the hump in 2015.
So feel all the feels now, the good, the bad, the emotional, polarizing ride to this point. Once everyone is done with that, both fans and the Blue Jays themselves must take a long and sober look at where things stand, and come to terms with how the building is very much at a beginning, not an end.
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