Free Agent Fit: Does Tyler Chatwood make sense for Blue Jays?

The San Francisco Giants are reportedly meeting with Giancarlo Stanton's representatives for a possible trade, and might do whatever they can to keep him away from L.A.

During the off-season we’ll be taking a closer look at some potential free agent targets for the Toronto Blue Jays. Today it’s Tyler Chatwood.

Check out our other free agent fits:

Brandon Morrow
Eduardo Nunez
Neil Walker

Player: Tyler Chatwood | Age: 27 | Position: SP | Throws: Right
2017 stats: 25 GS | IP 147.2 | ERA 4.69 | FIP 4.94 | WHIP: 1.442 | K/9: 7.3

MLB Trade Rumors Signing Prediction:

Philadelphia Phillies. Three years, $20 million.

Why he’s a potential fit for the Blue Jays:

The former Colorado Rockies starter could be one of the more intriguing value plays of the winter. He’ll be only 28 on opening day, is coming off two seasons with groundball rates of 57 percent or higher, and discovered some extra velocity in 2017, averaging 95 mph with his fastball and touching 98. There’s plenty to like about the spin rate on his curveball as well, which has led some to point to Chatwood as this off-season’s Charlie Morton.

It’ll be tough for Chatwood to do for his new team what Morton did for the Astros, but many point to his home and road splits as evidence that Chatwood will fare much better once he’s removed from Coors Field. Last season, Chatwood posted a 6.01 ERA in 17 home outings, as the opposition batted .302/.395/.489 against him. But in his 16 games on the road, Chatwood’s ERA was 3.49 and he held opponents to a .200/.299/.396 line. And it wasn’t just last year. In 2016 Chatwood had a 6.12 ERA at home as opponents hit .303/.375/.497. On the road his ERA was 1.69 while that batting line plummeted to .190/.286/.559.

With experience both as a starter and a reliever in recent years, Toronto could use Chatwood as a swingman, pitching multiple innings out of the bullpen, making the odd spot start when needed, and filling in for a longer stretch in the rotation if a spot opened. His price tag is likely to be very reasonable considering his underwhelming numbers on the whole, and if getting out of Colorado benefits Chatwood’s performance he could be the best value to be had in this free agent class.

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Why he might not be a fit for the Blue Jays:

One thing Chatwood can’t blame Coors Field for is his 4.3 BB/9 over the last two seasons. All that fastball velocity and the elite spin rate on his curveball won’t do him much good if he can’t harness his pitches. He’s also never posted high strikeout totals throughout his career. Part of that is due to the fact Chatwood generates so many groundballs, but still, teams would prefer his BB/9 (4.7 in 2017) and K/9 (7.3) weren’t so close together.

There is also a durability concern here as Chatwood has undergone Tommy John surgery twice: once when he was 16-year-old high schooler and again in July of 2014, which forced him to miss the entire 2015 season. Chatwood has also spent time on the disabled list over the last two seasons with back and calf ailments. Considering that history and how hard Chatwood throws, whichever team signs him will have to closely monitor his workload.

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The latest buzz:

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi connected the Baltimore Orioles to Chatwood earlier this offseason, following up days later to report that there is “widespread interest” in his services.

Fanrag Sports’s Jon Heyman has also linked the Orioles to Chatwood, adding the Texas Rangers as part of the “huge interest” the starter has received so far this off-season.

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