TORONTO — If you’re watching the baseball draft unfold from afar, you know that most picks will disappoint. Year after year there are far more failures than successes, even for the teams that draft best.
Of course those intimately involved with the draft can’t simply concede failure even when they know the odds are stacked against them.
“We shoot for 100,” said Steve Sanders, the Blue Jays’ amateur scouting director. “Oftentimes the numbers will fall short of that, but we shoot for 100.”
The Blue Jays will have three picks in the top 100 when the draft begins Monday night: 11th, 52nd and 88th. Sanders will have a total draft bonus pool of $8,463,300 thanks in large part to the $4,547,500 recommended for Toronto’s first-round pick.
The success of these picks will help determine whether the Blue Jays can keep their highly-regarded farm system stocked with prospects even as the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. graduate to the majors. It’ll be years before we know how well the Blue Jays do, so in the meantime here’s a look back at some MLB draft history, and a look ahead at what to expect Monday…
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BEST EVER 11th OVERALL PICKS
With three Cy Young Awards and 57 career wins above replacement, Max Scherzer’s the best player ever selected 11th overall. Others chosen at that spot include former MVP Andrew McCutchen, Astros outfielder George Springer and Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak.
If the Blue Jays get a player of that calibre here they’d be doing better than they did the last two times they selected 11th. The Blue Jays have chosen in this spot twice over the last decade, but neither pick worked out as intended.
Deck McGuire, the Blue Jays’ 2010 selection, has a lifetime 5.23 ERA in 27 big-league games, four of which came with last year’s Blue Jays team. It’s disappointing production for a first-round pick, but at least McGuire reached the majors. Max Pentecost retired from baseball this spring without advancing beyond high-A. The 2014 first-rounder battled shoulder issues for years before calling it a career.
HOW LAST YEAR’S BLUE JAYS PICKS ARE FARING
After a strong rookie ball debut last summer, 2018 first-rounder Jordan Groshans got off to a strong start at Class A Lansing. He posted a .909 OPS in 23 games for the Lugnuts before hitting the injured list in May.
Meanwhile, second-rounder Griffin Conine recently joined Lansing after serving a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance, third rounder Adam Kloffenstein has yet to begin his short-season schedule and fourth-rounder Sean Wymer has an 8.25 ERA in 11 starts at Lansing.
WHO COULD THE BLUE JAYS TAKE THIS YEAR?
The Blue Jays can afford to be more selective than most because they’re up so early in the draft. While they’re not ruling anything out with the 11th-overall pick, they can be more targeted knowing that just 10 players will be off the board by the time they select.
“We’re excited by the player pool,” Sanders said. “There are a lot of really good, talented players up top, but there’s a level of depth in terms of players who might be there in the second, third, fourth rounds.”
While the Blue Jays have an organizational need for pitching, they’ll prioritize impact over need until the very last rounds. Asked which areas stand out most, Sanders pointed to college position player depth.
So who could they pick? Baseball America suggests the Blue Jays are targeting college pitchers with the 11th pick. In BA’s latest mock draft, the Blue Jays are taking West Virginia right-hander Alek Manoah.
MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo has the Blue Jays taking high school outfielder Corbin Carroll while Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs have the Blue Jays taking junior college right-hander Jackson Rutledge.
TOP CANADIAN DRAFT PROSPECTS
Dasan Brown (Oakville, Ont)
Some scouts have given Brown’s speed an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale, so it’s possible he’ll go within the first two rounds. Brown now plays outfield for the Canadian Jr. National Team, but has committed to Texas A&M for college.
Jake Sanford (Cole Harbour, N.S.)
With a .398 average and .483 on-base percentage, Sanford has excelled at the plate for Western Kentucky University. The outfielder has 20 doubles and 22 home runs through 56 games, reinforcing his status as a bat to watch.
Josh Burgmann (Nanaimo, B.C.)
The right-hander has impressed in 79 innings at the University of Washington, posting a 3.99 ERA with 101 strikeouts compared to 22 walks.
Edouard Julien (Québec, QC)
Two years ago the Phillies took Julien in the 37th round. This time, he has a chance to go much higher. The infielder has a .371 on-base percentage and eight home runs at Auburn, where he’s a draft-eligible sophomore.
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