The new Major League Baseball season means sportsnet.ca columnist and broadcast statistician Scott Carson is back with his insight and analysis surrounding the six divisions and what stories to watch in each.
First up is the National League West; the home of the 2011 World Series Champion San Francisco Giants.
Can the Giants repeat as World Champions?
They certainly have the pitching to repeat.
Only the Phillies’ Big 4 starters of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels tops the Giants Big 4 of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner, but not by much. Closer Brian Wilson went from unknown to prime-time star thanks to a solid post-season and his Jeremiah Johnson-style beard.
Where the Giants will fall short is on offence where several players saved their best performances for the post-season. That’s not likely to happen again this season as their massive exposure in the playoffs has led to an increase in scouting by other teams.
It’s not that Buster Posey isn’t on the verge of superstardom, but any holes in his game have now been discovered and one season is not much of a body of work.
Defections this past off-season of veterans such as Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria have left holes in the infield, one of which will be filled by Miguel Tejada, who’s still productive but is a shell of the star that drove in 116 runs per season during the height of his career.
After trading Adrian Gonzalez to Boston, how long until the Padres can compete again?
The loss of Gonzalez, who averaged 36 home runs and 106 RBI over the past three seasons, will certainly be felt by one of the National League’s most offensively-challenged teams.
Playing in Petco Park, the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the Majors, has always left the Padres wanting for production. Brad Hawpe, who saw limited action with Tampa Bay a year ago, replaces Gonzalez in the lineup, but he’ll need to rediscover the stroke that him average 23 home runs during his first seven MLB seasons.
Just don’t expect Hawpe to replace Gonzalez on defence.
The Padres will sport an upgraded new middle infield this season with the arrival of shortstop Jason Bartlett (trade with Rays) and second basemen Orlando Hudson (free agent from Twins). They must also hope that Cameron Maybin, a former top prospect with both the Tigers and Marlins, can finally live up to his potential, something that has yet to happen for the 23-year old centre fielder.
Young ace Mat Latos is already one of the top starters in the game.
Carlos Gonzalez won the team Triple Crown last year. Are fans seeing the next great player in Colorado?
The Rockies sport three of the top young stars in the game in Gonzalez, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and ace right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez.
Of the three, Gonzalez still has the most upside, after a breakout season in 2010 that saw him hit .336 with 34 home runs, 117 RBI and 111 runs scored thanks to his aggressive approach at the plate. If he can replicate those numbers then the Rockies will have something on their hands.
Tulowitzki was signed to a life-altering, seven-year, $134 million extension and it will be interesting to see how that big contract affects his game.
Jimenez blasted out of the gate last season to a 15-1 record at the all-star break but he faltered in the second half, going just 4-7.
No. 2 starter Jorge De La Rosa, after making just 20 starts a year ago, needs a return to the form that saw him win 16 games in 2009. The Rockies overpaid for him in the off-season with free agency looming. Manager Jim Tracy is one of the top in-game managers in baseball, worth several extra wins during the long season.
Ian Kennedy led the D’Backs with just nine wins in 2010. Will this team already be out of it in May?
It’s likely.
The desert snakes were a woeful 27-45 within their own division last season and unless they turn that around, a third straight season in the basement of the N.L. West looms.
A year ago, many pundits had them finishing near the top based upon solid starting pitching, unfortunately ace Brandon Webb suffered another shoulder injury and No. 2 starter Dan Haren gave up a lot of home runs and was traded to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
What will be really interesting to see is how the team will respond to new manager Kirk Gibson, who as a player, was one of the most intense of his generation. This current crop of players aren’t used to being talked down to, so he’ll have his hands full.
Despite owning talented offensive players in Justin Upton, Stephen Drew and Chris Young, this team will lose a lot of games unless they can shore up their bullpen. Arizona relievers posted a 5.74 ERA last season, almost two runs higher than the league average.
The Dodgers are always a pre-season favourite, but won just 80 games last year? What can we expect this summer?
You have to know that the L.A. faithful aren’t going to put up with that too much longer, especially with the high ticket prices that they are expected to pay.
Legendary manager Joe Torre stepped away after three seasons of wheel-spinning and now works for the commissioner’s office. His replacement, Don Mattingly, has his hands full, but it’s not like the cupboard is bare.
Mattingly has a solid starting rotation at his disposal, led by ace left-hander Clayton Kershaw while closer Jonathan Broxton is still one of the game’s best. And offensive stars James Loney, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier still have upside but will need to start going yard more often for a team that finished 14th in the league in home runs.
This franchise has been caught in the middle of a nasty divorce involving principal owners Frank and Jamie McCourt, keeping them out of the marquee free-agent pool.
STATSMAN’S NON-BINDING PREDICTION IN THE NL WEST
SAN FRANCISCO
COLORADO
LOS ANGELES
SAN DIEGO
ARIZONA
