TORONTO – Two weeks into the 2017 season, the Toronto Blue Jays are undeniably off to a dismal start.
They rank last in baseball in slugging percentage, last in OPS, last in runs. They have the American League’s worst run differential, with 20 more runs allowed than scored. At 2-10, they have the worst record in baseball.
Their best player, Josh Donaldson, has been placed on the disabled list for an undetermined period of time. In his place, Darwin Barney and Chris Coghlan will cover third base.
Two of their best pitchers, Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ, are dealing with blister and elbow issues, respectively. There’s a steep drop-off to the Blue Jays’ next layer of starting pitching depth: Casey Lawrence, Brett Oberholtzer, Mat Latos, T.J. House, Mike Bolsinger and Jarrett Grube.
It’s been an awful start. So what now? With 150 games remaining, the Blue Jays have more than enough time to re-insert themselves into the playoff race. What do those 150 games have to look like if the Blue Jays are going to return to the post-season for the third consecutive season?
[sidebar]
Since 2000, every AL East winner has won at least 93 games. To win 93 games, the Blue Jays would have to finish 91-59, playing at a 98-win pace from here on. That’s a lot to ask of any team, let alone a club missing key contributors.
The Blue Jays reached the ALCS last year even though they didn’t win the AL East, so what about a wild-card berth? In the five-year history of MLB’s two-wild-card structure, no team has advanced with fewer than 86 wins. To match the total of the 2015 Houston Astros, the Blue Jays will have to play at a 91-win pace from here on. That’s the absolute minimum.
More realistically, it’ll take something like 88 wins to earn a wild card berth, and that would mean playing at a 93-win clip for the next 150 games. Considering that just five teams won 93-plus games last year, that’s a lot to ask.
Still, history suggests it’s possible to overcome a 2-10 start. It’s been done before — once. Of the 186 teams to qualify for the playoffs during the wild card era, one started 2-10: the 2001 Athletics. That Oakland team recovered from a rough April and finished the year 47-11 on its way to a 102-win season (the Mariners won 116 that year, so the A’s didn’t even win the division).
Going back further, the 1974 Pittsburgh Pirates and 1951 New York Giants both started 2-10 before winning their respective divisions, according to Sportsnet Stats (in fact the Giants started 2-12).
All things considered, FanGraphs puts the Blue Jays’ playoff odds at 17.8 per cent, in the same range as the Mariners, Marlins, Pirates and Diamondbacks. In other words, they’ve still got a chance, but they’re in a much worse position than they were two weeks ago.
There’s no more room for error now. If the 2017 Blue Jays are going to be legitimate contenders, they’ll need to play at a 90-plus win pace from here on. Weakened roster or not, they can’t afford another stretch like this one.
[relatedlinks]
