Way back in Week 3, we put together our way-too-early playoff odds edition of the NFL Power Rankings.
It is no longer too early.
For this edition of the rankings, our expert panel returned to Football Outsiders’ team-by-team post-season odds to see just how much the playoff picture has changed (or hasn’t, in the case of teams like the Patriots) in the last couple of months.
This week, the panel includes editor Geoff Lowe and staff writers Donnovan Bennett and Emily Sadler.
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1. Baltimore Ravens
2019 record: 8-2
Last week: 1
Playoff odds: 99.4%
Why can’t the Ravens not just get to the playoffs but win the whole thing? They beat the Seahawks, Patriots and the Texans. Lamar Jackson has out played Russell Wilson, Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson. If Baltimore is going to make a long postseason run, this is the year to do it. Jackson currently has 7-5 MVP odds, but has an annual average salary of just $2.4 million. (DB)
2. New England Patriots
2019 record: 9-1
Last week: 2
Playoff odds: 100%
With their post-season ticket all but booked, the Patriots will zero in on accomplishing two things over the next six weeks: 1) Clinching home-field advantage over the surging Baltimore Ravens, and 2) Fixing an offence that has really struggled to find a groove over the last three games. (GL)
3. Seattle Seahawks
2019 record: 8-2
Last week: 3
Playoff odds: 87.4%
Is it Week 17 yet? All signs point to this division coming down to the season finale against the 49ers. (ES)
4. San Francisco 49ers
2019 record: 9-1
Last week: 4
Playoff odds: 96.9%
They cut it a little too close against the Cardinals, but the poise Jimmy Garoppolo showed in the final drive gave us a little preview of something we haven’t seen before: Playoff Jimmy G. (ES)
5. New Orleans Saints
2019 record: 8-2
Last week: 5
Playoff odds: 99.1%
Let’s just get this playoff redemption tour going already, shall we? (ES)
6. Green Bay Packers
2019 record: 8-2
Last week: 6
Playoff odds: 93.8%
It’s unlikely Green Bay misses the playoffs, but which spot they’ll be in is anybody’s guess. Their situation is a microcosm of the competition in the NFC, where five teams have already amassed eight wins with six weeks remaining. If the Packers can beat the 49ers on Sunday, they’ll be the NFC’s top seed and will control their own destiny. If they lose, there is a good chance they’ll play a wild-card game on the road. (DB)
7. Minnesota Vikings
2019 record: 8-3
Last week: 7
Playoff odds: 92.1%
Minnesota erased a 20-point halftime deficit — their largest comeback win in 27 years — to keep their hopes of winning the NFC North alive. Adam Thielen will return after the bye for their game against Seattle, which might decide playoff seeding or even a wild-card spot. If they get in, nobody will want to face Kirk Cousins and the red-hot Vikings. Since Week 5, Cousins has the best fourth-quarter passer rating in football at 141.3. (DB)
8. Kansas City Chiefs
2019 record: 6-4
Last week: 8
Playoff odds: 93.2%
The late-season bye week couldn’t have come at a better time. With Tyreek Hill hurt and Patrick Mahomes just a few weeks removed from his own injury, the club gets a rest before heading down the stretch to put away the division. (ES)
9. Buffalo Bills
2019 record: 7-3
Last week: 10
Playoff odds: 58.2%
Sunday’s dominant win over the Dolphins was just what this team needed after what had been an up-and-down month for the Bills. Josh Allen probably had his best game as a pro, and the defence held Miami to just 23 rushing yards. Buffalo must take care of business this weekend at home against Denver before looming clashes with the Cowboys and Ravens. (GL)
10. Houston Texans
2019 record: 6-4
Last week: 9
Playoff odds: 55.7%
Week 11’s no-show in Baltimore will hurt more than Houston’s pride if Deshaun Watson and the Texans can’t get a win on Thursday night against the visiting Colts. Depending on how things play out over the next three weeks, the Texans’ playoff hopes could come down to a pair of matchups against the Titans in Weeks 15 and 17. (GL)
11. Los Angeles Rams
2019 record: 6-4
Last week: 12
Playoff odds: 14.3%
One year ago, a Rams-Bears Sunday Night Football matchup would’ve been a contender for game of the year. Now? Not so much. The Rams are still very much in the hunt, but their elite division peers and the play of quarterback Jared Goff aren’t exactly inspiring much confidence. (ES)
12. Dallas Cowboys
2019 record: 6-4
Last week: 14
Playoff odds: 75.4%
The Cowboys control their NFC East fate thanks to a Sunday-night drubbing of the Eagles a few weeks back and given the way Dak Prescott is dealing right now, you’d be hard-pressed to bet against them. But giving up 27 points to the Jeff Driskel-led Lions is a concern as Dallas enters the toughest part of its schedule. (GL)
13. Oakland Raiders
2019 record: 6-4
Last week: 16
Playoff odds: 50.5%
Three straight wins has them within reach of a wild card, thanks once again to the strength of their rookies.
Suddenly, their Week 13 matchup against the Chiefs just got very interesting. (ES)
14. Indianapolis Colts
2019 record: 6-4
Last week: 17
Playoff odds: 65.3%
Sunday’s win over the Jags coupled with the Texans’ embarrassing loss in Baltimore mean the Colts are in the AFC South driver’s seat heading into Thursday’s crucial clash in Houston. The absence of Marlon Mack will hurt, though, as Indy rode the ground game in Sunday’s win over Jacksonville. (GL)
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
2019 record: 5-5
Last week: 11
Playoff odds: 27.5%
Pittsburgh was 7-2-1 at this same time last year and didn’t make the playoffs. With Diontae Johnson and Juju Smith Schuster both out with a concussion and the Ravens running away from the division it looks like they’ll likely miss the postseason again. (DB)
16. Carolina Panthers
2019 record: 5-5
Last week: 13
Playoff odds: 1.9%
After a magical start to the season for Kyle Allen, the magic might be running out — along with their playoff hopes. (ES)
17. Philadelphia Eagles
2019 record: 5-5
Last week: 15
Playoff odds: 37.2%
Forget “Fly, Eagles, Fly” – Carson Wentz and this offence can barely get off the ground. Given the state of the NFC wild-card race, Philadelphia must set its sights squarely on the NFC East title as a way into the dance. That would be a much easier feat with a win over Russell Wilson and the Seahawks at home this Sunday, but it won’t happen if all the Eagles do is punt. (GL)
18. Tennessee Titans
2019 record: 5-5
Last week: 18
Playoff odds: 21.2%
Tannehill’s Titans are still very much a factor in the AFC playoff race with four divisional games still on the schedule, plus a matchup with Jon Gruden’s Raiders. But who are we kidding: The Titans are destined for a fourth straight 9-7 finish. (GL)
19. Chicago Bears
2019 record: 4-6
Last week: 19
Playoff odds: 1.1%
Chicago is just 1-5 in their last six games after a 3-1 start. Mitchell Trubisky hurt his right hip pointer and was pulled from their most recent loss — allegedly not due to his performance, but because of his health. Trubisky ranks last in the league with just 5.6 yards per attempt. Their chances to make a miraculous turnaround and make the playoffs are actually increased if Trubisky isn’t playing. (DB)
20. Cleveland Browns
2019 record: 4-6
Last week: 22
Playoff odds: 18.1%
With a soft remaining schedule, the Browns have a shot to get hot and sneak into the playoffs. But it’s a long shot. The team has won consecutive games just three times over the past four seasons. (DB)
21. Atlanta Falcons
2019 record: 3-7
Last week: 24
Playoff odds: 0.1%
So you’re saying there’s a chance…
After allowing at least 20 points on a weekly basis, the Falcons have allowed just 12 points in their last two games — both of which came in divisional wins against playoff-quality clubs. (ES)
22. Jacksonville Jaguars
2019 record: 4-6
Last week: 20
Playoff odds: 8.6%
It would be unwise to count out late-season Nick Foles, but a beatdown at the hands of the Colts was likely the nail in the coffin for this Jaguars team, which can’t run the ball anymore and can’t stop opposing running backs. (GL)
23. Los Angeles Chargers
2019 record: 4-6
Last week: 21
Playoff odds: 0.5%
Philip Rivers’ four-pick night against the Chiefs — including one in the red zone with the game on the line — brings his total up to 14 on the year and all but rules out the post-season. (ES)
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2019 record: 3-7
Last week: 23
Playoff odds: 0.0%
Positive spin: Their schedule was legitimately difficult, as they’ve played a combined half of their games against the 49ers, Saints, Seahawks and Rams. Negative spin: Jameis Winston is having the worst season of his career, and the Bucs are going to miss the playoffs for a 12th consecutive season. (CB)
25. Detroit Lions
2019 record: 3-6-1
Last week: 25
Playoff odds: 0.6%
Detroit has played good football. They are one of three teams to have a lead in every game this year. The other two — the Chiefs and 49ers — are first in their divisions, while Detroit is last in theirs. That said, their 31st-ranked defence has made it hard to keep leads. With the season all but completely slipped away, the Lions might not want to rush Matthew Stafford back after his back injury. (DB)
26. Arizona Cardinals
2019 record: 3-7-1
Last week: 26
Playoff odds: 0.0%
With the playoffs out of reach in the game’s toughest division, Arizona is playing the role of spoiler. Kyler Murray & Co. almost did the Seahawks a solid by knocking off the 49ers. Though they lost the game, they’ve shown they’ve got the foundation to contend soon. (ES)
27. Denver Broncos
2019 record: 3-7
Last week: 27
Playoff odds: 1.2%
A victim of a strong division and their own late-game play, the Broncos’ rebuild is pretty much going as expected at this point.
28. New York Jets
2019 record: 3-7
Last week: 30
Playoff odds: 0.5%
Wins over bad Giants and Redskins teams only mean the Jets are a tier above the league’s worst, but shouldn’t distract from the fact Gang Green has a ton of work to do with this roster in the off-season. And it starts with the offensive line. (GL)
29. Miami Dolphins
2019 record: 2-8
Last week: 28
Playoff odds: 0.0%
After two straight wins — two more than anyone thought they would get this season — the Dolphins came back to earth against Buffalo Sunday in a game in which they were completely dominated. Fans should take solace in the fact that head coach Brian Flores is squeezing everything he can out of a depleted roster. (GL)
30. Washington Redskins
2019 record: 1-9
Last week: 29
Playoff odds: 0.0%
While fellow NFC East cellar-dwellers New York appear to have found their franchise QB, things in Washington don’t look to be going as well. (GL)
31. New York Giants
2019 record: 2-7
Last week: 31
Playoff odds: 0.0%
Given the future of the offence with Daniel Jones and a healthy Saquon Barkley, Giants fans won’t be completely bummed out by that goose egg above. (GL)
32. Cincinnati Bengals
2019 record: 0-10
Last week: 32
Playoff odds: 0.0%
The Bengals are officially out of the playoffs, so Ryan Findley gets the privilege of mop-up duty for the rest of the season as they tank to take a QB in the draft. (DB)
