On any given night in the NHL, you’ll see a wide variety of goalie saves, some of which look so good they’re highlighted on the morning recaps, or talked about on social media or the workplace. It might be a big save with the glove, fighting through a screen, or a desperation-effort leg kick – we don’t analyze them closely very often, but each are recognized for the “wow” factor.
But there are varying degrees of luck involved in goaltending and we often poorly evaluate that aspect.
I experienced an example of this at a recent game of my own. The second shot of the game came through a dense screen, hit the end of my goal stick and was directed into the corner. The second-last shot of the game came through a partial screen from the same shooter. I reached for it late and once again it hit the butt-end of my stick and stayed out. The shooter called me lucky and, well, I couldn’t really blame him.
I was beyond lucky on the first shot because I didn’t move at all. The second shot still involved a lot of luck, but not as much as the first, since I had to react and move quickly to even be in a place where I could stop it. Both were unexpected saves, but neither was worthy of the highlight reel: they relied too much on luck to leave much credit for the goaltender.
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There’s a tendency among fans and broadcasters to over-credit goalies when they make unlikely saves with a last-second stick or glove stretch.
Certainly some of those stops are worthy of the hype, but many are simply the result of gravity meeting luck. The difference? Whether the save happened as a result of A) the goaltender’s skill, execution and tenacity, or B) external forces beyond the goalie’s control (shooter error, gravity, act of God). Saves based on A are true highlights. Saves based on B are pure luck.
To be fair, almost every save involves elements of both luck and skill. After all, most times a shooter could have fired the puck a little faster or with a little more accuracy to convert a goal instead of leading to a save. Even on lucky saves where the puck just hits the goalie, he was at least skilled enough to get in the way. Let’s look at some extreme cases to get a better sense of where skill ends and luck takes over.
This eventual glove save by Mike Smith is certainly worthy of replay:
After the initial solid save, Smith gets almost no credit for anything that happens in this sequence. As the pass comes back into the slot, Smith tries to return to his crease, stumbles, half trips over his stick, then donkey-kicks his lower body up for the screen shot he thinks must be coming. Instead, another pass is made, and though Smith never sees it, his defenceman slows and redirects the shot right past Smith’s prone body, exactly in range of his outstretched glove. This save rates five horseshoes out of five, including a significant hilarity bonus.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have this save by Sergei Bobrovsky:
From start to finish, everything Bobrovsky does influences the final outcome of this play.
He begins by establishing significant depth on Andreas Athanasiou, defending against the shot without cheating toward the middle. As the first pass comes, he slides into the proper angle and is in position to stop a quick one-timer. When the second pass comes, Bobrovsky is able to stop his rapid momentum by planting his left skate and somehow pushes his right foot back into the path of the shot. Athanasiou gets it off without hesitation, and while you could argue he should have given the shot more elevation, this was far from a misplayed chance.
This one scores five highlights out of five, full bonus points for unbelievable lower-body power.
Now that the extremes have been established, we’re in good position to evaluate a save by Robin Lehner, which in many ways is the perfect test case. This stop (the second in the video pack below) was on all the highlight reels the following morning and was generally described as a “fantastic” or “great” save.
In this case, the hype isn’t justified. Lehner makes this save despite what he does in the sequence, rather than because of his actions. As the sneaky shot-pass comes in from the point, Lehner seals the bottom of the net and fronts the puck carrier well. But then, he decides to slash at Jonathan Huberdeau’s stick and hands through his legs, which opens a narrow passing lane Huberdeau exploits.
Instead of planting his left skate to stop his momentum and slide back to the net (like Bobrovsky did above), Lehner recovers on his right foot half standing, which takes himself up and away from the potential shot. When he decides to lay his stick out and dive, he almost bungles it, getting his blade stuck on a skate before finally slipping it in front of the goal line. The shooter, meanwhile, had been held up by the defenceman long enough that despite all Lehner’s missteps, he was still able to corral the slow shot and keep it out. Horseshoes all around.
Ultimately, nothing matters more than stopping the puck, regardless of how it happens. However, when we’re giving out credit, it’s important to realize how much of a save came down to luck: skill endures, but eventually everyone’s luck runs out.
Take a look at these two saves and try to separate the highlight-worthy decisions from the horseshoe bounces. I’m looking forward to seeing what you noticed in the comments below.
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