TAMPA, Fla. — When John Tavares tested the open waters last summer, he admits he was drawn to the Lightning. The strength of Tampa’s ownership, the track record of its front office and several years of Stanley Cup contention made it an awfully appealing option.
“What’s been really impressive over the years is they’ve kind of had to fill roles and fill spots with a team that’s been up against the cap,” Tavares said Wednesday. “They’ve managed that very well, obviously using the [favourable] state tax to their advantage. You continue to see them add young players that make an impact for them. You need to have that, especially in this era I think.
“I think that’s what’s very strong here [in Toronto], as well. It’s something I saw that I think both teams had.”
A third of a season after Tavares chose to come home and sign with the Maple Leafs, the organizations appear to be closer than ever before.
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Tampa is occupying pole position, of course, having followed up three near-misses in the last four years by pacing the entire NHL in wins, points and total goals scored so far this season. But the Lightning are mindful of the big blue object in the rearview mirror since Toronto is second in each of those categories heading into their meeting at Amalie Arena on Thursday night.
“The more we can distance ourselves from the team behind, the better,” said Lightning defenceman Victor Hedman. “Tomorrow’s going to be a tough game, we know that, probably the toughest one of the year. We need our A game.”
The Leafs and Lightning appear to be on a crash course for one another and both sides can sense it. Especially with the NHL’s wonky divisional playoff format, which could see them each finish higher than the 29 other teams and still meet in the second round — just as Nashville and Winnipeg did last season, and Washington and Pittsburgh did two springs ago.
It may be inequitable, but it almost feels inevitable.
The playoff format is a sore subject around the Toronto dressing room these days, in part because the Leafs finished as the NHL’s sixth-best team last season and still opened on the road at No. 4 Boston, but also because they may yet draw another brutal first-round matchup this spring even if they finish higher in the overall standings.
“Our division is pretty deadly at this point,” said Leafs centre Nazem Kadri. “Obviously that’s kind of at a disadvantage for us, it’d be nicer to play a seven or eight seed.”
“My personal preference is the old format,” said Tavares. “I remember being in a scenario a couple years ago on the Island and we ended up playing Florida because we didn’t finish higher in our division and the Rangers ended up playing Pittsburgh and it was a quick series. I think ideally you earn that seed and that position.”
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Under the current system, the path of least resistance for a Leafs team expecting to take a step this year would be finishing atop the Atlantic Division and drawing a wild-card entry in Round 1. That would mean leapfrogging Tampa, which currently holds a 49-43 edge in points with an extra game played.
In all likelihood, it will probably require them to make up some ground in the four head-to-head meetings, which adds an extra layer of intrigue to the first of those games here on Thursday.
“I think so because potentially we could see ‘em down the road, which definitely makes things a little more interesting from a player and a fan perspective,” said Kadri. “It gives you guys something to talk about.”
The Lightning have been a runaway train of late, steamrolling the league with seven straight wins and 10 in their last 11 games despite missing No. 1 goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy to injury for the last four weeks. They haven’t skipped a beat because an offence fuelled by Brayden Point (21 goals), Steven Stamkos (15) and Nikita Kucherov (12) is averaging four goals per game — a pace no team has managed to maintain over an entire season since the 1995-95 Pittsburgh Penguins.
By comparison, the fire-wagon Leafs are averaging 3.65 goals per game on the backs of Tavares (19), Auston Matthews (16) and Kasperi Kapanen (11).
You might want to consider taking the over when they’re all on the same ice together.
“I mean they can obviously score at will, too. I think kind of like us,” said Matthews. “[They have] a lot of depth, a lot of speed, you want to stay disciplined against them. They’ve got a good power play and they’ve been obviously very hot lately.
“They’re probably the top team in the league right now.”
They are the bar by which the Leafs are measuring themselves.
The Lightning have been among the NHL’s elite for half a decade — reaching the Stanley Cup final in 2015 and Game 7 of the Eastern Conference final in 2016 and 2018 — but Toronto isn’t content to simply wait its turn in the queue behind them.
“They’re setting the standard for the National Hockey League and we’d like to be where they’re at,” said Leafs coach Mike Babcock. “We want our young guys to get the experience quicker so that we can be a good playoff team quicker, but in the meantime we’ve got to win regular season games.”
It would be a bonus if that included the ones where they faced the Lightning.
By the numbers
Tampa
Point%: .766 (1st)
GF/G: 4.00 (1st)
GA/G: 2.84 (11th)
PP%: 29.2 (3rd)
PK%: 83.0 (8th)
Corsi (5-on-5): 53.8 (5th)
Toronto
Point%: .694 (2nd)
GF/G: 3.65 (3rd)
GA/G: 2.74 (6th)
PP%: 25.9 (7th)
PK%: 80.0 (14th)
Corsi (5-on-5): 49.92 (17th)
